From the Mining Boom to the Dining Boom

Even before the crash in global commodities prices, Australian policymakers had been hoping one of the non-resource sectors would take over leadership of the country’s economy.

That’s part of the reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut its benchmark cash rate to an all-time low of 2.25%. In theory at least, historically low interest rates should spur borrowing by businesses looking to make growth-oriented investments.

And low rates also undermine support for the Australian dollar. A declining exchange rate makes the country’s exports more competitive in the global market.

But the central bank readily acknowledges that there are limits to what its monetary policy can achieve.

For instance, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has famously lamented the lack of “animal spirits” among Australia’s companies—the sort of risk-taking, entrepreneurial drive that generates new wealth (and, yes, the occasional spectacular failure).

Meanwhile, real estate, one of the obvious beneficiaries of low interest rates, is in the midst of a worrisome bubble, and policymakers are attempting to contain it. Though a strong housing market can drive growth in many other areas of the economy, it can also pose a threat to the financial system if left unchecked.

So what other sectors are ready to step up? Well, Australia’s abundance of resources isn’t limited to metals and energy. The country also has a substantial agriculture sector.

Just as mining benefited from Australia’s proximity to fast-growing emerging Asia, agriculture could be poised to do the same. The numbers are simply staggering: Asia’s burgeoning middle class is projected to rise to 1.75 billion by 2020 from around 525 million today.

At the moment, however, tapping this market is still more an opportunity than a reality.

For one, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the agriculture sector accounted for just 2.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the 2014 financial year. And sector gross value declined by 5.2% year-over-year.

By comparison, iron ore, which is Australia’s top export, accounted for 3.6% of GDP last year. And the overall mining sector, which includes oil and gas production, accounted for 8.3% of GDP. Despite the sector’s well-publicized woes, its gross value still managed to grow by 6.5% last year.

In terms of employment, however, the agriculture sector absolutely dwarfs mining. While about 550,000 people are employed in agriculture, just 30,000 work in mining.

On the trade front, beef and wheat are Australia’s biggest agricultural exports, ranking eighth and ninth, respectively, among the country’s top 25 exports.

But the agriculture sector’s showing is still a far cry from mining. Last year, the total value of Australia’s agricultural exports was AUD38.3 billion. By contrast, the mining sector’s constituents occupied 11 of the top 25 spots, for a total value of AUD180.7 billion.

However, thanks to the current Australian government’s emphasis on forging free-trade agreements (FTAs) with the country’s regional neighbors, agriculture’s contribution to exports should rise over time.

Over the past year-and-a-half, the Liberal-National government has made significant progress on what had previously been long-stalled trade negotiations.

During that time, Australia has inked FTAs with China, Japan and South Korea, all of which include important concessions on key agricultural exports. And now the government is working toward signing an FTA with India by the end of the year.

Aside from proximity to these countries, Australia also has an edge from its reputation for providing clean and safe agricultural products, an aspect of its brand that’s especially important in a region where memories of China’s infant formula scandal are still fresh.

Nevertheless, thus far the shift from mining to dining seems to be happening mostly among some of Australia’s wealthiest citizens, who made their fortunes from mining but have recently been diversifying into agriculture.

Billionaire mining magnate Gina Rinehart, who at the height of the resource boom was once the richest woman in the world, has made noteworthy investments in cattle and dairy.

Last year, she reportedly made AUD130 million in cattle deals. She also expanded her dairy business with an AUD500 million investment in farmland in a joint venture with a Chinese company to export infant formula to China.

Those deals came on the heels of fellow billionaire and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. chairman Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest’s AUD40 million acquisition of the largest beef processor in Western Australia and the only one in the state licensed to export to China.

At the outset of the decade-long resource boom, both anticipated the eventual surge in iron ore prices and invested accordingly. Forrest made his fortune during that period, while Rinehart, who inherited wealth, expanded her fortune many times over. So it’s probably worth paying attention to where they’re putting their money now.

Unfortunately, although the smart money is investing in Australian agriculture, it’s slim pickings for retail investors: There are only a handful of publicly traded companies that operate in the sector.

And with last month’s AUD1.3 billion acquisition of packaged edible oils company and former How They Rate constituent Goodman Fielder Ltd., that population has gotten even smaller.

Our favorite agriculture play by far is Aggressive Holding GrainCorp Ltd. (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF).

The grain handler and storage company has a commanding market share, but its business is subject to the vicissitudes of the harvest. The firm’s bottom line suffered from a smaller harvest last year, and management expects tough conditions to persist this year.

Additionally, longtime investors are likely still smarting from the Australian government’s decision to scuttle Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.’s (NYSE: ADM) acquisition of the firm, which caused GrainCorp’s share price to plunge back below AUD9 from AUD12.

Though ADM’s bid appeared to be the victim of intra-coalition politics, the government hinted that it would be open to approving a deal at a later juncture. ADM continues to maintain a 19.85% stake in the firm.

At the same time, GrainCorp still needs to make about AUD50 million to AUD75 million in upgrades to its infrastructure, which ADM would have funded had the deal gone through.

Despite these challenges, GrainCorp remains a Buy below USD10.

 

 

Survival Mode

 

Atlas Iron Ore Ltd. (ASX: AGO, OTC: ATLGF, ADR: AGODY), which reported a fiscal 2015 first-half loss of more than AUD1 billion due to asset writedowns, announced on April 10, 2015, that it would shut down all of its mines and cease exports to Asia.

Trading and quotation of its shares on the Australian Securities Exchange have been suspended as management conducts a review of operations, including the consequences of its decision to suspend production, and the company’s capital structure.

Discussions with unsecured creditors, which management described as “positive,” are continuing. There is, as of yet, no default pursuant to the terms of its secured-debt facilities.

It’s highly unlikely that Atlas will declare a dividend when it reports fiscal 2015 financial and operating results in August.

Atlas’s decision is reverberating throughout the iron ore industry, with service providers such as MACA Ltd. (ASX: MLD, OTC: None) and Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX: MIN, OTC: MALRF, ADR: MALRY) sure to take top-line hits due to suspension of contracts at the impacted mines.

MACA guided to the lower end of its fiscal 2015 revenue forecast, as it will also feel the impact of Sinosteel’s shutdown of operations at the Bluehills mine. MACA is a speculative Buy up to USD1.

MinRes, meanwhile, said that Atlas’s suspension of mining and crushing operations at the Wodgina mine won’t materially impact its overall business. MinRes is a Hold.

Atlas Iron Ore is now a Hold.

DWL table

 

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