Tapping Asia’s Real Estate and Finance Growth

China’s shift to a more consumer-based economy has the unpleasant side effects of sluggish manufacturing and real estate, with one exception—Hong Kong. Its real estate is thriving, as is its financial sector. That’s why we like Allied Group, a Hong Kong–based investment and finance company with fertile business dealings, steep profits and an attractive valuation.

Normally its high profitability would be cause for concern, as you would assume the company couldn’t keep it up, but Allied has maintained it for several years now.

I believe its capabilities and mix of businesses make higher profits likely, at least while the world’s loose money supply persists.

Allied (OTC: ALEDY) goes back a long way by Hong Kong standards—it was first listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange in 1973. The company has two core businesses: real estate investment and development, and financial services.

Its real estate interests are mainly held through two companies, its 75%-owned Allied Properties Limited in Hong Kong and Tian An China Investments (TACI), an Allied Properties holding in mainland China. Allied Group offers financial services primarily through Allied Properties’ 55% holding in Sun Hung Kai & Co. Limited (SHK) and SHK’s majority-owned holdings.

As Hong Kong’s real estate boomed, profits from Allied’s investments in retail, hotel and office properties flowed straight to the bottom line. On the mainland, where TACI has concentrated on high-tech business parks, the company did well in southern Chinese cities, but progress has been slower in northern China.PW 1505 Hong Kong Box

The slowdown in Chinese real estate affected Allied’s profits, which should revive from China’s version of quantitative easing. Allied also has a joint venture with the Japanese construction company Kajima to build a hotel.

The outlook for Allied’s financial business is also rosy. Revenue for SHK, one of Hong Kong’s largest brokers, increased 7% in 2014 while loan balances for its fast-growing specialty in structured finance soared 42%. That business should generate even more revenue in 2015.

Two of SHK’s holdings are also doing well. United Asia Finance Limited, SHK’s Chinese consumer finance business, is growing rapidly, with revenue up 20% and loan balances up 14%. Meanwhile, SHK Hong Kong, the company’s investment vehicle, sold its portfolio of Chinese real estate–related bonds to invest in stocks instead, from which SHK anticipates a better return.

Although Allied’s businesses depend heavily on today’s easy access to credit, its real engine of growth comes from Hong Kong, China and neighboring countries where its businesses are expanding. Its management is both nimble and well attuned to the risks with detailed, sage policies that minimize the company’s exposure. Allied had a good 2014, when earnings per share rose 28%, and is cautiously optimistic for 2015.

Allied stock, which has a historic P/E ratio of about 4.5 times earnings, is attractively priced, and with the dividend equivalent to $0.85, the shares yield more than 4%. Trading only around 40% of book value, the stock is an exceptional deal. The risk is not low, but given the low P/E, the price seems likely to rise.

The shares trade well in Hong Kong (HK symbol: 0373), and the company has a market capitalization of just under $1 billion. If you buy the ADRs, which are thinly traded, check the previous night’s closing Hong Kong price, divide by 1.95 to convert it into U.S. dollars, and set your buy price limit no more than 5% or so above the Hong Kong share price.

Buy Allied Group up to $25.

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