Singapore’s Logistics King

Admiral of the Fleet Sir Henry Keppel (1809 to 1904) is an important name in Singapore. He solved the South China Sea’s pirate problem with his victory at the 1857 Battle of Fatshan Creek, where he sank over 100 pirate junks. He also carried out the survey for Singapore’s harbor, which was renamed Keppel Harbour in his honor when he revisited Singapore at the age of 91 in 1900.

Keppel Harbour was noted for its beauty, surrounded by palm trees and the Padang field on which the Singapore Cricket Club played when I lived in Singapore as a child. I remember my amazement at how clear and clean the water was, without any of the stench that in those days emanated from the Singapore River, which ran into the harbor (they’ve cleaned it up since, but in its day the Cuyahoga smelled like a mountain stream by comparison).PW 1506 keppel pie chart

And Keppel Corp. also swings a lot of weight in Singapore and across the Western Pacific. The company got its name from its ownership of Keppel Shipyard, and therefore indirectly from Sir Henry Keppel. It is involved in ship-repairing and port services, offshore oil rigs, infrastructure development, real estate and investments.

Just as London is the world’s leading international financial center, Singapore is a leading center for port operations and logistics, although in the last several years Shanghai has edged ahead in total metric tons handled (33.6 million versus 32.6 million in 2013, according to the World Shipping Council). The top eight ports worldwide are all in East Asia, reflecting that region’s dominance in the handling of physical goods in the world economy.

With containerization, Singapore’s importance greatly increased because shipping companies can adopt a “hub and spoke” policy for shipping freights between two smaller ports, reducing the total amount of shipping miles needed. Consequently, the port’s importance in global trade greatly exceeds the volume of freight originating in the region.

Singapore’s strength in the logistics business drove much of Keppel’s growth. Keppel opened a shipyard in the Philippines in 1975, diversified into real estate development in 1983, and grew its real estate interests in 1999, when it moved its port operations from Keppel Harbor to the container port of Jurong. That location had potential for large redevelopment close to Singapore’s commercial center.

Earlier this year, I was hesitant about Keppel’s prospects, because it has a big business in offshore oil rigs, which $40 oil prices threatened. With oil having recovered to around $60, demand for Keppel’s rig services should stabilize, and although that business won’t enjoy the rapid growth of earlier years, it still should be a plus rather than a drain on Keppel’s overall operation.PW 1506 keppel side art

By far the dominant part of Keppel’s business is the offshore and marine sector, which accounts for 64% of sales and 55% of net profits. Those profits were up 10% from the previous year in 2014, and the division’s backlog of orders increased to SGD12.5 billion ($9.3 billion), with completion dates stretching to 2019. Keppel’s marine division repaired 418 ships in 2014, a 9% increase compared with 2013, operating from Singapore and the Arabian Gulf. Finally, Keppel Singmarine, the company’s specialized shipbuilding division operating from Singapore, Brazil and Azerbaijan, broadened its construction capabilities to include icebreakers, lifeboats and oilfield support vessels.

Keppel’s infrastructure division, responsible for 17% of net profit in 2014, focuses on power generation, water treatment and telecom infrastructure for Singapore’s market, which is expected to grow 3% annually. Keppel specializes in waste-to-energy projects, such as the one outside of Manchester, U.K.

Keppel’s real estate division develops major housing, retail and office projects in Singapore, with additional operations in China and Vietnam. It accounted for 26% of the group’s profits in 2014, with the greatest expansion expected in markets outside Singapore.

Keppel’s investments division, which contributed 3% of net income in 2014, consists of three operations: a venture capital company, an oil-and-gas investment company in Southeast Asia and M1 Limited, an integrated communications services provider in Singapore.

In the first quarter of 2015, Keppel’s revenues dropped 6% from the previous year, but net profit and earnings per share rose 6%. The weakness was in offshore and marine, where revenue was flat and net profit dropped 12%, as well as in infrastructure, where net profit declined 28%. Those numbers were offset by real estate’s net profit growth of 15% and investments, where net profit rose from SGD14 million to SGD62 million ($46 million).

Keppel trades today on a P/E ratio of only 8 times historic earnings and 9.4 times prospective 2016 earnings, sells at a premium of only 40% to book value and offers a generous dividend yield of 5.7% (Singapore does not levy a withholding tax on dividends).

Buy Keppel up to $16 for its excellent value, especially in today’s overheated market.

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