Pacific Roundup

Bancolombia S.A. (NYSE: CIB), the largest bank in Colombia, announced first-quarter results that showed a 21% increase in net operating income from the preceding year. However, net income was flat for the previous year, as the bank was subject to a new law that began in December 2014 and imposes a wealth tax of 1.5% on net worth above a certain level. The wealth tax represented 15% of Bancolombia’s pretax profits, and it is especially onerous on a capital-intensive large banking group.

In practice, because all banks will be subject to the tax, banking margins should widen to reflect it, although it is pernicious in encouraging bank leverage. Nevertheless, the positive trend in Bancolombia’s overall operations is clear, and the bank’s shares are reasonably priced at 9.8 times projected 2016 earnings and 50% above book value.

Cardno (COLDF: OTC), the Australian infrastructure services company, issued an update on its expected earnings for the half-year to June 30 (the second half of its fiscal year). As we anticipated, the decline in oil prices has hit the company’s operations, especially in the United States.

It therefore lowered its profit projection for the half-year to June to $12.5 million to $15 million, and its full-year projection to $37 million to $39 million. Nevertheless, the company remains substantially profitable, and with oil prices apparently bottoming out, the future trend looks promising—the company has a P/E of 9.8 times projected 2016 earnings for the year to June 30, 2016.

Our Australian energy services company WorleyParsons (OTC: WYGPY), which is similarly affected by oil price trends, reported a 6% decline in revenue and a 19% decline in profits after tax for the quarter ended March 31 compared with the previous year. Margins showed a modest decline. Like Cardno, WorleyParsons’s share price has been battered, and the company now trades at a reasonable 13 times expected earnings for the year to June 30, 2016. We regard both companies as attractively priced with excellent long-term prospects.

Shinhan Financial Group (NYSE: SHG), our Korean banking and financial holding company, had good news in that Moody’s upgraded its Shinhan Bank deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings to Aa3. Over time, the rating should lower the bank’s cost of finance—crucial to a financial services company, which is always highly leveraged.

The worst performance among our holdings has been from the Malaysian e-payment and gaming company MOL Global (Nasdaq: MOLG). It declined by about three-quarters from its inflated IPO price last October, and I had hoped that like Facebook, the growth of its business would propel the share price to recover from the low level to which it had sunk.

Then MOL reported a first-quarter operating loss, with expenses up 162% from last year, even though consolidated revenue rose a healthy 23%. As a result, the stock dipped even further. I am inclined at this stage to put the company on a short leash; its cash balance declined $36 million in the first quarter to $115 million, so there is only a moderate cushion if it continues to generate losses.

Accordingly, I will set a stop-loss of $1.50, at which point we should sell and recoup about two-thirds of our investment. MOL is a Hold. Place a stop-loss order at $1.50 on MOL Global (NSDQ: MOLG).

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