Grexit? Higher Rates? Don’t Worry

Perhaps it’s the glorious summer days here in Vancouver or maybe the lingering euphoria of the Canada Day celebrations that has lulled me into a tranquil state. But neither the ongoing Greek drama nor signs of rising U.S. interest rates convince me that it’s time to modify the Dividend Champions investment strategy.

The Dividend Champions stocks were selected because they can sustain and grow their dividends long term, and neither Greece nor rising interest rates should affect their prospects.

First, consider Greece. In the unlikely worst-case scenario, in which Greece is forced out of the eurozone and investors rapidly exit other fragile European economies, we could see increased market volatility and possibly even a sizable correction.

But given that Greece makes up less than 1% of the global economy, the country’s departure from the EU wouldn’t cause big ripples across international markets.

And the Dividend Champions stocks have little, if any, direct exposure to Greece. Some of the more international companies, such as Royal Bank of Canada, ShawCor Ltd. and Inter Pipeline Ltd., do have some European operations or clients, but no direct Greek exposure.

Second, consider interest rates. We’ve seen expectations of higher U.S. interest rates ramping up in recent months. In anticipation of an announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee, 10-year government bond yields moved up from a recent low of 1.6% to 2.4%. Surprisingly, Canadian bond yields also increased, despite a very different domestic situation: There’s no expectation of higher official interest rates anytime soon.

In fact, with the monthly gross domestic product measurement now in negative territory for a fourth consecu-tive month, rumor has it that the Canadian Central Bank may soon cut interest rates again.

Despite the different interest rate scenario in Canada, dividend-paying equities, especially REITs and utilities, have lost considerable ground, mirroring the performance of similar stocks in the United States.

However, our Dividend Champions Portfolio of high-quality companies currently yields 3.9% with a good possibility of 5% to 10% dividend growth in each of the next two years. Compared with 10-year Canadian government bonds yielding 1.7% and cash yielding almost nothing, the Dividend Champions Portfolio remains the better option.

Finally, trying to time the market around either Greece or rising rates is a fool’s game. The best-performing days in the stock market come around only occasionally, and if you don’t stay invested, you’ll miss some of them and hurt your returns.in brief chart Missing Out

For investors who remained fully invested in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index between 1993 and 2013, their annual return would have been an average annualized 9.2%, and a $10,000 investment would have grown to $58,332. However, if they missed the 10 best market days, the investment return drops to 5.49% per year. If they missed the 50 best days, the gain becomes a loss: –2.77% per year. In the last case, the original $10,000 investment shrinks to $5,697.

You can also argue that missing the worst 10 or 30 days in the market can improve your investment results to the same degree, and statistically that would be correct. However, the chances of avoiding the worst days are as remote as hitting the best days. So forget about timing the market. For the most part, it does not work.

If you’re sensitive to short-term market volatility, it’s better to stay invested and buy some insurance in the form of put options on the overall market or on your largest holdings.

The cost of the options will cut a bit into your overall return but will protect you from being out of the market at the wrong time.

 

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