China’s Deflategate: Not a Big Worry

Despite aggressive efforts by Chinese authorities to halt the slide, the Shanghai Composite Index is more than 27% off its mid-June peak. So far regulators have taken about every imaginable option to stop their over-inflated market from collapsing like a hot air balloon that’s low on propane.

They’ve bought shares, halted trading in wide swaths of the market, loosened lending rules, suspended new initial public offerings and even banned selling. None of which has actually stabilized the market. They may as well try to stop the tide from rolling in.

That’s a big problem for a government that has essentially made it un-Chinese not to buy stocks. But while its central planning apparatus may get a black eye, the Chinese economy is still doing fine.

For one thing, the Shanghai index is still up 74% over the trailing year. Stocks also account for a relatively small share China’s economy, with the value of shares available for trade amounting to only about one-third of the country’s gross domestic product, a far cry from the more than 100% in most developed economies.

And despite the government’s efforts to encourage more of its populace to invest, only about 6% of Chinese are actually in stocks, and they have less than 10% of their savings in the market. By way of comparison, more than half of Americans have some investment in stocks.

Given the still relatively small size of the Chinese stock market, a strong case can be made for the government to simply back off—let the market finish shaking out the excesses. Committing to support share prices is an expensive proposition that could lock the government into years of interventions.

At the same time, loosening lending standards and basically compelling financial institutions to offer cheap margin accounts just allows more excesses to build up, potentially exacerbating the problem down the road.

Propping up a flagging market to maintain credibility with Chinese investors is also harmful to China’s long-term goal of attracting more foreign investors. Not only are foreigners an important source of capital, opening up the country’s financial markets is a critical step in making the Chinese yuan a global currency. In fact, the International Monetary Fund is considering adding the yuan to its Special Drawing Rights basket, which would effectively make the yuan a global reserve currency.

Foreign investors are understandably leery of getting involved in markets prone to government intervention though, since it can be a fickle thing. That support could go just as easily as it comes, which adds another layer of uncertainty and risk to a market already criticized for weak accounting and transparency. The Economist recently called it a “casino,” “with share prices bearing little connection to underlying economic conditions.”

 It is estimated that $225 billion of capital left the country in the second quarter alone.

It’s also one reason why we generally avoid Chinese equities, favoring high-quality companies with firm pricing power and economies of scale. Truly global businesses that aren’t over dependent on any one country are much better able to weather out these times of high volatility. The two Chinese companies we do have in our portfolios also happen to meet those criteria.

Our Holdings

For instance, while Seaspan (NYSE: SSW) is based in Hong Kong, the fleet of containerships it owns are leased out to transoceanic shipping firms whose operations span the globe. While Chinese companies are important clients to those shipping firms, their operations are so broad and diverse that they can ride out anything short of a truly global economic crisis.

Huaneng Power is also fairly insulated from the fall.

While Chinese utility and Aggressive Portfolio holding Huaneng (NYSE: HNP) has yet to announce earnings, it recently released its power generation update for the first half of 2015.

Despite the slowing Chinese economy, the Chinese electric utility has benefited from lower coal prices and has also shifted a chunk of its generation to lower-cost renewable sources, like wind and hydropower. According to the utility, despite falling electricity consumption thanks to slower economic growth and additional generation capacity coming online, its total power generation in the first half of the year grew by 5.3%. Most of that increase was due to addition of power plants from its parent company last year and new generation units the utility recently put into operation.

In addition to the bump in generation, total electricity sold also rose by 4.95% year-over-year.

So while Huaneng and Seaspan aren’t immune from the recent market troubles in China, thanks to the nature of their businesses they are riding out the storm with relative ease. So the big question going forward is whether or not the Chinese government will continue supporting the markets as they have been, or will it do the sensible thing and the let the excess squeeze out now instead of adding to it.

Portfolio Updates

Speaking of Seaspan, it released its first half earnings report on July 28 and, judging by that, the Chinese market woes have had virtually no effect on its business. The company’s net profit jumped by 170% year-over-year, hitting $102.7 million in the first six months of 2015 as compared to just $38 million in the same period last year. Revenue jumped 13.4% to $387.8 million.

While the company did have unscheduled downtime on some of its ships and won lower than expected charter rates on others, that weakness was offset by the delivery of 10 new ships in the period that were already chartered. It also as 23 new ships on order which are expected to be delivered in 2017, most of which are already committed to charters as long as 17 years.

Seaspan remains a buy up to $27.

KKR & Co (NYSE: KKR) reported second-quarter profit more than doubled from $178.2 million last year to $376.3 million. Profits per share jumped to $0.78 from $0.43 in 2014. The company’s net income, which includes unrealized gains and cash earnings, jumped to a record $839.9 million or $0.88 per share, compared to $501.6 million or $0.57 per share last year.

The company’s stockholdings increased to $11.9 billion, from $4.6 billion last year as it benefited from its stake in publicly traded companies like Walgreens Boots Alliance and HCA holdings. As of June 30, 2015, KKR has $101.6 billion assets under management, compared to $98 billion a year ago. Management said it will continue to deploy capital in interesting opportunities.

Despite the gains, distributable earnings to shareholders fell 30% to $491.4 million from last year. KKR said it will pay a dividend of $0.42 per share, down from $0.67 per share last year. However, annualized this still equates to a yield of 10% at its current share price.

KKR is a Buy up to $28.

Vodafone (NSDQ: VOD) reported first-quarter 2015 consolidated revenues fell 0.9% year-over-year to $15.5 billion. Group service revenues which represent 91% of the firm’s business fell 2.9% to $14 billion.  Revenues in Europe fell 3.9% to $9.9 billion but were up 1.1% organically. The organic increase was driven by a stabilizing European market and higher data usage offset by a loss of 881,000 subscribers.

The company’s revenues from its Africa, the Middle East and Asia (AMAP) markets were brighter, growing 5.5% to $5.1 billion and up 8.1% organically. The strong performance was due to an increase in customers and data demand. During the quarter, Vodafone added 4.3 million customers in AMAP. The company has a total of 449.2 million users (121.2 million in Europe and 328 million in Asia) at the end of the second quarter.

GIE #1 Conservative holding Vodafone remains a Buy up to $39.

Khoa Nguyen contributed to this report.

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