How to Beat the Slump

Our recipe for capitalizing on the current slump in energy valuations and MLP prices specifically is simple.

First, resist the temptation to sell solid, profitable midstream businesses poised to benefit from domestic energy production and energy exports over the long run.

Second, increase exposure to downstream niches like refining and tankers, which have not yet received full credit for the fundamental upturns they’re enjoying, and which are returning money to investors at yields comparable to MLPs and in some cases much higher.

Third, be on the lookout for clearance sales in long-term value creators, even if they merely sponsor energy yield vehicles but are not themselves organized as MLPs or, in some cases, if they’re MLPs not involved in energy processing.

Fourth, secure the income stream before worrying about whether that income comes with the tax-deferral advantages that have long been one of MLPs’ main selling points.

We’ve used all of these ingredients in compiling our outperforming portfolio, including this issue’s updated Best Buys list.

It features several leading conventional midstream MLPs, but also a variety of refiners, tanker operators and MLP sponsors with fundamentally strong and significantly undervalued profit streams.

This month’s lone portfolio addition also breaks the MLP mold as the leading developer of alternative energy projects. New Buys explains why SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE) has lost investors’ trust and more than half its share price in recent weeks and why it’s quite likely to regain it over time.

One drawback of staying focused on the MLP sector’s long-term value proposition is that it makes it challenging to understand why so many have been so eager to bail out of these names both in the very recent past and over the last year. This month’s In Focus addresses the bear case and the causes of the recent selling to help subscribers weigh these against our frequent advice to lean into the wind.

Portfolio Update returns with a focus on the recent results of the new best buys, since quite a few of them are recent portfolio additions that may be unfamiliar to subscribers. We’ll catch up on the rest of the portfolio next month. The results I have reviewed to date strongly suggest that any near-term business risks have been more than fully discounted.

Until the market comes around to this view, we’ll continue to practice patience and target the most outstanding opportunities caused by short-term dislocations.

Stock Talk

ThomasW

ThomasW

what is your opion of sunoco lp sun thinking of buying it

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

It’s obviously well off its springtime highs and not the worst idea at a yield approaching 8%, so long as you realize the yield is the main attraction here, with ETE retaining incentive distribution rights and therefore much of the upside, and probably using any capital appreciation to fund further acquisitions, which Sunoco has said it plans to make. As such I would rather own ETE and perhaps some of the smaller potential acquistion targets for SUN and its main competitors. We do recommend GLP, which has a significant filling stations component and a fat yield as well. Among coporate chains, while we don’t recommend the yield-less MUSA, it’s certainly a lot cheaper and would be “immediately accretive,” as they say, if acquired by SUN (not that I have any particular reason to believe that will happen.)

Mr. Ed, The Talking Horse

Mr. Ed, The Talking Horse

Igor, last two weeks are as ugly as I’ve experienced in a few years. Would be interesting to have a lessons learned beyond the obvious “don’t panic”. One think that struck me is that my mlp holding are highly correlated. Pointing out which recommends are vs which are not and why would be helpful. Thanks.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Yes, I think MLPs have become more highly correlated of late given the influx of institutional money, which tends to buy and sell in kneejerk fashion. The recent areas of our focus outside the traditional MLPs, such as refiners and tankers, would only be correlated in the sense that they’re income equities. The other “safer” harbors would be fuel distributors like APU and the refiner logistics plays like DKL and HEP. Also, amusement park operator FUN is a non-energy MLP that’s actually inversely correlated to gasoline prices.

pipeline

pipeline

Igor
The yield on SE is now higher than SEP
I can’t remember this happening before
Any reason you are aware of?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I think there are two factors involved, both involving SE assets that are not part of SEP. One is that gas production on Canada’s West Coast can be expected to slow given the record low prices for NGLs in the region, and two is SE’s 50% stake in DCP Midstream’s general partner, which may require additional support. There is of course a powerful countervailing force to these drags in the form of the incentive distribution rights SEP owes to SE. The longer SE’s share price remains depressed the higher the odds that it will be merged into SEP via a buyout, I think.

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