All the Cards on the Table

  • KKR (NYSE: KKR) downgraded to Sell in Aggressive Portfolio
  • Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM) downgraded to Sell in Aggressive Portfolio
  • SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE) downgraded to Sell in Aggressive Portfolio
  • Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP) upgraded to Buy below $7 in Aggressive Portfolio
  • Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE: SHLX) upgraded to Buy below $35 in Growth Portfolio
  • Global Partners (NYSE: GLP) downgraded to Hold in Growth Portfolio
  • Plains GP Holdings (NYSE: PAGP) downgraded to Hold in Growth Portfolio
  • Targa Resources Partners (NYSE: NGLS) downgraded to Hold in Growth Portfolio
  • TransCanada (NYSE: TRP) downgraded to Hold in Conservative Portfolio
  • UBS E-TRACS 2x Monthly Leveraged Long Alerian MLP Index (NYSE: MLPL) downgraded to Hold in Aggressive Portfolio
  • Archrock (NYSE: AROC) buy limit set at $15 in Growth Portfolio
  • Archrock Partners (NASDAQ: APLP) buy limit reduced to $25 in Growth Portfolio
  • Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (NYSE: BWP) buy limit reduced to $16 in Aggressive Portfolio
  • Buckeye Partners (NYSE: BPL) buy limit reduced to $70 in Aggressive Portfolio
  • Columbia Pipeline Group (NYSE: CPGX) buy limit reduced to $24 in Growth Portfolio
  • DCP Midstream Partners (NYSE: DPM) buy limit reduced to $33 in Growth Portfolio
  • Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) buy limit reduced to $40 in Growth Portfolio
  • Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) buy limit reduced to $27 in Growth Portfolio
  • Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) buy limit reduced to $48 in Growth Portfolio
  • EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC) buy limit reduced to $24 in Aggressive Portfolio
  • Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) buy limit reduced to $34 in Conservative Portfolio
  • EQT (NYSE: EQT) buy limit reduced to $85 in Aggressive Portfolio
  • EQT GP Holdings (NYSE: EQGP) buy limit reduced to $29 in Aggressive Portfolio
  • New Residential Investment (NYSE: NRZ) buy limit reduced to $15 in Aggressive Portfolio
  • NuStar Energy (NYSE: NS) buy limit reduced to $46 in Growth Portfolio
  • NuStar GP Holdings (NYSE: NSH) buy limit reduced to $27 in Growth Portfolio
  • Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA) buy limit reduced to $26 in Conservative Portfolio
  • SemGroup (NYSE: SEMG) buy limit reduced to $45 in Growth Portfolio
  • Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) buy limit reduced to $32 in Conservative Portfolio
  • Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) buy limit reduced to $57 in Conservative Portfolio
  • Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL) buy limit reduced to $36 in Growth Portfolio
  • Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) buy limit reduced to $50 in Growth Portfolio
  • Williams (NYSE: WMB) buy limit reduced to $45 in Growth Portfolio

 

AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) fell short of its annual profit forecast as margin gains failed to fully offset the loss of 6% of heating degree days across its service territory relative to a normal year, and a 9% falloff relative to 2014. The leading U.S. propane distributor still delivered 1.16x coverage on a distribution currently yielding 8.9%. The payout rose 4.5% this year and should easily maintain that pace in 2016 based on the partnership’s forecast for 9% EBITDA growth in the new fiscal year. The unit price is down 22% from January’s record high and 4% above the three-year low set in late September. Buy Growth pick APU below $51.

Antero Midstream Partners (NYSE: AM) reported 1.38x distribution coverage on a distribution it’s just increased 8% from the prior quarter, in line with guidance of annual growth of 28-30% through 2017. The gathering affiliate of the Appalachian gas producer Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) also increased its 2015 EBITDA and distributable cash flow projections by 6%. Units now yield 3.6%. The unit price is down 15% year-to-date but up 36% from its late September low. The sponsoring producer has a very strong balance sheet and hedge book. It’s fully hedged on propane and natural gas for 2016 (at nearly twice the current natural gas price) and had hedges with a mark-to-market value of $2.8 billion as of Sept. 30. Buy Growth pick AM below $30.

Archrock (NYSE: AROC), formerly known as Exterran Holdings, completed the spinoff of its overseas compression services and manufacturing operations, leaving itself as the general partner to the domestic compression services MLP Archrock Partners (formerly Exterran Partners.) It distributed one share of the spinco, trading under the symbol EXTN, for every two shares of AROC/EXH. Operating horsepower and in North America was virtually unchanged from a year ago, while gross margin in the region was up 5% year-over-year. But management noted “increased stop activity” by customers and “reduced visibility.” The company plans to announce  a dividend of 18.75 cents per share in the fourth quarter, for a current annualized yield of 6.7%, with plans to increase the payout 15% in each of the next two years. The share price is down 42% year-to-date and 20% since Nov. 3.  Buy Growth pick AROC below the reduced limit of $15.

Archrock Partners (NASDAQ: APLP) reported 1.14x coverage on a distribution that rose 3.6% in a year’s time, though that was down from coverage of 1.24x (excluding temporary cost caps) a year earlier. The current annualized yield is at 13.6%. The unit price is down 16% year-to-date and 37% from the May high. Buy Growth pick APLP below the reduced limit of $25.

Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) declared a third-quarter dividend of 49 cents per unit, up from 44 cents a year ago but down from 74 cents in the second quarter and the record 89 cents in the first quarter. Distributable earnings provided coverage of 1.18x for the premier private equity firm and alternative asset manager. The most recent payout extrapolates to an annualized yield of 6.4%, but shares have yielded 9.5% over the past year. Management has no plans to buy back stock because retained capital is needed to finance Blackstone’s own investments in its funds. Assets under management were up 17% in a year’s time to $334 billion. The share price is down less than 1% year-to-date but 27% below the record hit in May. Buy Growth pick BX below $48.

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (NYSE: BWP) reported a 14% year-over-year increase in EBITDA and a 47% jump in distributable cash flow. That was more than three times (3.34x) what was needed to fund the barebones distribution of 10 cents a share, now in effect for nearly two years as the partnership hoards cash for essential growth projects. Even that adds up to an annualized yield of 3.3% with the unit price down 30% year-to-date. The most recent quarter’s improved results ought to be sustainable, as they stem from a long-term rate case settlement on the partnership’s Gulf South gas transmission system as well as improved demand from power producers. Buy Aggressive pick BWP below the reduced limit of $16.

Buckeye Partners (NYSE: BPL) raised its distribution 4.4% year-over-year for a current annualized yield of 7.2%. But the effect of Midwest refinery turnarounds, lost butane blending profits and higher one-time costs more than offset strength in the larger terminals segment, leaving distribution coverage at 0.89x in a seasonally weak period. The fuel shipper still fully covered its distributions for the last 12 months and expects to do so again for calendar 2015. Next year, coverage is expected to rebound back to the targeted 1.05x as revenue from the South Texas crude gathering and shipping venture with global trader Trafigura kicks in along with higher crude storage profits from recent price increases in new contracts. Debt leverage remains reasonable at 4x EBITDA. The unit price has dramatically outperformed MLP indices, dipping 9% year-to-date. It’s up 20% since late September, when the market was briefly worried about a liquidity crunch affecting one of Trafigura’s global trading rivals. Buy Aggressive pick BPL below the reduced limit of $70.

Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP) reported an 13% year-over-year increase in adjusted operating surplus, providing 1.04x coverage on the current annualized yield of 14.6%. The distribution rose 0.8% sequentially, in line with management’s goal of 2-3% annual growth.  The partnership took delivery of another containership toward the quarter’s end, bringing the number of such vessels in its fleet to 9, alongside 20 product tankers, 4 crude tankers and a bulker. Four products tankers were recontracted during the quarter at significantly higher rates, bringing charter coverage to 94% for 2015 and 79% in 2016. CPLP does have one unchartered containership currently in dry dock and is due to take possession of another redelivered containership next month. The CEO acknowledged recent weakness in container trade, but noted that CPLP could fully cover next year’s distribution growth target even if those ships remained idle for the entire year. Six product tankers and two crude Suezmaxes come off charter over the next year and are likely to be rechartered at higher rates. CPLP’s average charter has a remaining term of 6.7 years. The partnership is set to take delivery of another products tanker from its sponsor in January and has the right of first refusal on eight other newbuilds due over the next 18 months. The unit price is down 8% year-to-date but 29% below April’s crest. Aggressive pick CPLP is upgraded to a Buy below $7.

Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN) reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 8% for the key third quarter, with attendance at its amusement parks up 6% and per-capita spending rising 2%. The distribution rose 10% year-over-year, for a current annualized yield of 5.9%. The partnership does face a bigger tax bite starting next year when it expects to exhaust its loss carryforwards, but the distribution looks secure. Net income plus noncash depreciation and amortization for the last nine months provided 1.33x coverage for an annual payout at the new level. Buy Aggressive pick FUN below $60.

Columbia Pipeline Group (NYSE: CPGX) reported a 28% year-over-year increase in its preferred earnings measure — net operating earnings from continuing operations (controlling interest) – for the third quarter. Distributable cash flow provided 2.8x coverage for the declared dividend of 12.5 cents a share, which adds up to a current annualized yield of 2.6%. Although the share price is down 39% in the five months since Columbia was spun off from NiSource (NYSE: NI), management is standing by initial guidance of 20% annual EBITDA growth and 15% annual dividend hikes through 2020. The main thrust of questioning on the conference call concerned financing the estimated $8 billion in capital projects required to deliver that growth. That’s become a taller order since Columbia’s MLP affiliate, Columbia Pipeline Partners (NYSE: CPPL), has lost nearly half its market cap since May, raising the cost of equity capital. Options under consideration include letting CPPL pay for the next dropdown with units to be sold by CPGX at a later date or attracting private capital to bridge the market turbulence. Management was adamant that Columbia’s slate of largely fixed-rate, long-term gas transmission contracts and the demand for its planned growth projects remain unaffected by the current slump in natural gas prices. Buy Growth pick CPGX below the reduced limit of $24.

DCP Midstream Partners (NYSE: DPM) reported a 12% increase in EBITDA year-over-year, providing 1.21x coverage on the units’ current 11.8% annualized yield. The distribution was kept level for the third straight quarter as the big natural gas processor copes with low natgas liquids prices. Third-quarter natural gas throughput volumes were up 6% year-over-year, benefiting from new plants. Management remains focused on reducing costs and commodity exposure. The unit price is down 36% year-to-date but up 24% from the late September low. Buy Growth pick DPM below the reduced limit of $33.

Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) reported a 24% year-over-year increase in distributable cash flow, providing 1.46x coverage on a payout recently increased 16% year-over-year. With the unit price down 11% year-to-date and 35% from the July high, the annualized yield is up to 7.6%. With debt leverage still relatively low at 3.1x EBITDA, the partnership is on the hunt for third-party acquisitions even as it pursues two pipeline projects scheduled to be completed late next year. Buy Growth pick and #4 Best Buy DKL below the reduced limit of $40.

DHT Holdings (NYSE: DHT) earned more in the third quarter than it did for all of last year, as its VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) fetched a charter rate of nearly $60,000 a day, nearly double the average nine months ago. The dividend rose to 18 cents a share from 15 cents in the immediately prior quarter, while net income plus noncash depreciation and amortization added up to roughly 50 cents a share. With six new fully financed VLCCs due for delivery by the end of the year set to enlarge DHT’s fleet to 24 ships, cash flow is certain to shoot up so long as rates hold up. The company is committed to paying out at least 60% of its net income as dividends, and to using the rest of the current surplus to pay down debt.  With the share price up 7% year-to-date but down 14% from the July peak, the current annualized yield is up to 9.9%. Buy Aggressive pick and #8 Best Buy DHT below $10.

Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) reported a 39% increase in adjusted distributable cash flow for the third quarter, providing 1.09x coverage for a payout recently hiked 37% year-over-year. With the unit price down 29% year-to-date and 43% below June’s record, the annualized yield has risen to 5.8%. CE On the earnings conference call analysts repeatedly asked whether and how ETE might help its largest affiliate, Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP), finance a heavy 2016 project slate. CEO Kelcy Warren responded that the general partner would “do whatever is necessary,” likely in the form of incentive distribution rights deferrals as has happened in the past. ETE also disclosed that it’s agreed to a $6.5 billion syndication loan for the pending purchase of Williams (NYSE: WMB). The one-year bank facility, renewable for another year at ETE’s option, carries a maximum interest rate of 5.5% Buy Growth pick ETE below the reduced limit of $27.

Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) reported a distributable cash flow shortfall attributed to a tax benefit reversal, the consequences of low commodity prices and some unplanned processing plant outages. These drove third-quarter coverage down to 0.84x, and 0.97x year-to-date. Excluding the presumed one-time effects, coverage would have been “right at the 1x, maybe just a couple of basis points below,” the CFO said on the conference call. Nevertheless, ETP hiked its distribution 8.2% year-over-year, for a 10.2% annualized yield. The unit price is down 31% year-to-date. On Nov. 16, ETP announced  the sale of its remaining fuel retail assets to the affiliated Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) MLP for $2.2 billion in cash. Proceeds will finance nearly half of the partnership’s $5 billion capital spending slate for 2016, with only a “modest amount” of the remainder to be raised from equity. The transaction is not expected to affect ETP’s cash flow. Buy Growth pick ETP below the reduced limit of $48.

EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC) reported 1.12x coverage on a distribution increased almost 11% in a year’s time. Cash available for distribution was down  23% as a result of dropdowns to its EnLink Midstream Partners (NYSE: ENLK) MLP affiliate earlier this year. ENLK. In turn, managed improved coverage of 1.05x on the back of recent expansions and acquisitions. With the price down 49% since May 1, ENLC now yields an annualized 5.8%. The underlying business is largely shielded from near-term commodity pricing pain, with solid growth prospects for NGL shipping in Louisiana and both gas and crude gathering in the Permian Basin. Meanwhile, majority owner Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) is helping to contain volume declines in North Texas and Oklahoma, where production has slowed. Buy Aggressive pick ENLC below the reduced limit of $24.

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) posted flat gross margin and distributable cash flow year-over-year, aided by contributions from $8 billion in acquisitions over the last year and gains in NGL shipping and LPG logistics. Those positives offset the drag from lower NGL prices on gas processing and NGL fractionation. The distribution coverage was 1.25x on a payout raised 5.5% year-over-year. The annualized yield is up to 5.7% with the unit price down 22% year-to-date, though it’s up 23% from the late September low. Debt swelled 14% over the last year, to 4.1 times EBITDA. The partnership is taking its typically long-term view in pushing ahead with next year’s slate of projects costing as much as $3.5 billion. Buy Conservative pick and #3 Best Buy EPD below the revised target of $34.

EQT (NYSE: EQT) reported a 46% drop in adjusted operating cash flow, as the 27% production increase failed to fully offset the 55% slide in the realized price of natural gas for a leading Marcellus driller. The balance sheet remained one of the industry’s strongest, featuring $1.5 billion in cash, net debt at  modest 14% of capitalization and an undrawn, unsecured $1.5 billion credit facility. Preliminary plans call for 2016 production growth of 15-20% at a capital spending cost “a fair bit lower” than in 2015. Meanwhile, encouraging early results from the Utica exploration program hint at returns as good as those in the core Marcellus, leading EQT to halt drilling on less promising terrain. The share price is down a relatively mild 16% year-to-date. Buy Aggressive pick and #6 Best Buy EQT below the reduced limit of $85.

EQT GP Holdings (NYSE: EQGP) raised its distribution 13% from the second quarter in its first hike since going public in May. A proxy for EQT’s general and limited partner interests in its midstream MLP affiliate EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM), EQGP is targeting annual distribution growth of at least 40% through 2017 with 1.0x coverage. The current annualized yield is 1.7%, but the quarterly payout should double in just 18 months. The share price is down 27% since the first post-IPO close. Buy Aggressive pick EQGP below the revised limit of $29.

EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM) posted a 59% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, boosted by EQT’s rising production volumes as well as a gathering system acquisition from its sponsor. That was enough for a coverage ratio of 1.63x on a distribution raised 22.7% in a year’s time. The partnership is targeting 20% distribution growth in each of the next two years. Fixed reservation fees cover 80% of transmission contracts accounting for 47% of recent revenue. These have a weighted average term of 16 years. The rest of the revenue comes mostly from EQT ship-or-pay gathering commitments with a 10-year term. The debt/EBITDA ratio is below 2, leaving lots of financial flexibility to bankroll a $3 billion organic project backlog. The annualized yield is up to 3.8% with the unit price down 18% year-to-date. It’s up 18% from September’s low, however. Buy Growth pick and #7 Best Buy EQM below $100.

EuroNav (NYSE: EURN) reported a 252% year-over-year increase in third-quarter EBITDA as the spot rates earned by its VLCC and Suezmax crude tankers doubled. It added a tanker in September to bring its fleet to 54, with three more fully funded ships on order. Under its policy of paying dividends equal to 80% of net operating income, EuroNav distributed 87 cents a share in 2015 for a trailing yield of 6.3%. The next semiannual dividend based on results from the second half of 2015 will be paid in May. EuroNav earned 46 cents a share in the third quarter. Dividends are subject to a Belgian tax withholding of 25%, though U.S. investors can apply through their broker to reclaim 10%. The share price is up 21% since the January U.S. IPO but down 14% from October’s high. Buy Aggressive pick and #10 Best Buy EURN below $18.

Fortress Investment Group (NYSE: FIG) maintained a quarterly dividend of 8 cents a share, for a current annualized yield of 5.7%. The alternative asset manager’s pre-tax distributable earnings were for the first nine months of 2015 were down 19% from the comparable period last year. Fee-paying assets under management were up 13% in a year’s time. The share price is down 23% year-to-date but up 8% from September’s lows amid news of the closure of its flagship macroeconomic hedge fund following losses. Management said the fund accounted for 2% of assets under management and was recently a drain on the bottom line. Fortress is spending $250 million, some of it deferred, to buy out the departing manager’s 13% stake in its dividend-paying shares at a 20% discount to the current price. Buy Aggressive pick FIG below $6.50.

GasLog Partners (NYSE: GLOP) lifted its distribution 10% from the prior quarter and 27.5% year-over-year after the first full quarter since it bought three more ships from sponsor GasLog (NYSE: GLOG) to enlarge its fleet of liquefied natural gas carriers to eight. The ships are under charters expiring in 2018-2020, and GasLog has 12 more under long-term charter that could be sold to its affiliate in the c=next few years. GasLog Partners is sticking to long-term plans to increase its payout 10-15% annually, and has been at pains to note that current weakness in LNG prices and spot charter rates has no effect on its prospects over at least the next two years. By then, more LNG export projects should be online, though the supply of LNG carriers will rise as well. GLOP’s current charters provided 1.37x coverage on a distribution now yielding an annualized 11.5%. The unit price is down 28% year-to-date but up 19% from September’s low. Aggressive pick GLOP is a Hold.

Genesis Energy (NYSE: GEL) reported a 55% jump in adjusted EBITDA largely on the strength of its recent acquisition of offshore pipeline interests in the Gulf of Mexico, even though those assets only began contributing more than halfway through the quarter, when the purchase closed. The offshore profit surge pushed coverage to 1.37x on a distribution recently increased 10% year-over-year. That’s a pace Genesis has maintained with a few quarterly exceptions for the last decade. The partnership also unveiled new growth projects worth $350 million it plans to complete next year, including infrastructure that will allow an Exxon-Mobil (XOM) refinery in Houston — the nation’s second largest — to receive crude directly from an offshore pipeline. As a result of that spending and the big recent acquisition, debt leverage has risen to about 5x near-term EBITDA. But the distribution coverage is set to increase further as well, and Genesis plans to use the excess coverage to pay down the debt over time while continuing recent distribution growth. The annualized yield is at 6.2% on units that have dramatically outperformed the MLP sector, gaining 4% year-to-date despite recent volatility. For more on Genesis, see the portfolio update in a recent MLP Investing Insider. Buy Growth pick GEL below $53.

Global Partners (NYSE: GLP) reported a 43% decline in distributable cash flow, as wholesale margins pinched by the coastal refineries’ waning demand for oil trains from the Bakken and rising interest expense more than offset gains from the recently expanded network of affiliated filling stations. The distribution coverage declined to 1.25x, hurt as well by the 24% increase in common units over the last year. The distribution rose 6.9% in a year’s time and a disappointing 0.7% sequentially in recognition of the downturn in the wholesale business. If future increases are similarly modest, annual payout growth could slow from more than 8% recently to 3% or so. With units down 15% year-to-date and 22% over the last three weeks, the annualized yield is up to 10.8%. Meanwhile, as a result of the additional share issuance and incentive distribution rights, the general partner’s share of the profits rose 74% year-over-year. Growth pick GLP is downgraded to Hold.

Holly Energy Partners (NYSE: HEP) posted a 10% year-over-year increase in distributable cash flow, providing 1.55x coverage for a distribution increased 6.2% year-over-year. The refinery logistics affiliate of HollyFrontier (NYSE: HFC) is targeting 8% annual distribution growth from here. It recently acquired a 50% interest in a crude pipeline running from Casper, Wyoming to a HollyFrontier refinery in Salt Lake City, Utah and, separately, the naphtha fractionation and hydrogen generation units at another HFC refinery under long-term tolling agreements. The unit price is up 19% year-to-date and 27% from September’s low. The annualized yield stands at 6.7%. Buy Growth pick HEP below $40.

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) has been taken to the woodshed since lowering dividend growth expectations for 2016 to a range of 6-10%, from prior guidance of 10% increases for years to come. The midstream giant is still delivering 15% dividend growth this year but coverage slipped to 1.0x in the latest quarter as low crude prices hurt the profitability of enhanced oil recovery via carbon dioxide flooding. Kinder Morgan’s subsequent sale of a convertible offering with a yield near 10% raised $1.6 billion in badly needed growth financing but at a cost of highlighting the rising cost of capital for the heavily indebted company. Debt is at nearly six times annual EBITDA. The share price is down 43% from April’s peak and 22% since Kinder Morgan reported less than a month ago. Yet EBITDA was down just 1% in a year’s time and perhaps 10% excluding gains from acquisitions and expansions. The annualized yield is up to 8.5%. For more on Kinder Morgan, see a recent MLP Investing Insider. Buy Growth pick KMI below $35.

KKR (NYSE: KKR) reported a 31% decline in third-quarter distributable earnings, citing the toll of the worst market performance in four years, which affected the incentives earned by the asset manager’s funds. It declared a distribution of 35 cents a share but said it would thereafter pay a fixed quarterly dividend of 16 cents a share. That works out to a current annualized yield of 3.6%. The extra retained cash will finance the $500 million share buyback announced at the same time and KKR’s investments alongside its clients. Fee-paying assets under management ticked up 2% in a year’s time. The share price is down 18% year-to-date. Sell Aggressive pick KKR.

Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) reported a 25% jump in distributable cash flow on the strength of record refined fuel pipeline volumes and robust demand for its crude pipelines and marine terminals. The distribution coverage was 1.32x on a payout increased 14.2% year-over-year, for a current annualized yield of 4.1%. Magellan modestly raised its annual profit guidance while sticking with plans to increase the distribution 15% this year and at least 10% in 2016. The unit price is down 19% year-to-date but up 19% from the September low. Buy Conservative pick and #1 Best Buy MMP below $90.

MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE)  scheduled a unitholder vote on the proposed merger with MPLX (NYSE: MPLX) for Dec. 1, even as a co-founder and owner of a 0.7% stake in the Marcellus midstream leader launched a campaign against the combination. In response to the factual claim by former CEO John Fox that the merged MLP would offer a significantly lower yield and be burdened with onerous incentive distribution rights, MPLX sponsor Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) raised the cash portion of its offer for the second time in a week on Nov. 17. It now proposes to pay MWE holders $6.20 per unit in cash, up from the $3.37 per unit proposed in July. But while that increases the cash payout to $1.3 billion, the total value of the deal has declined by more the $5 billion in four months as a result of the drop in the MPLX unit price. In addition to the cash, MWE holders have been offered 1.09 MPLX units for each MWE unit. Three institutional investors with a combined stake of more than 15% in MarkWest have already backed the merger, though Marathon wouldn’t have sweetened the pot twice, or even once, if a vote in favor of the deal were certain. We recommended selling a partial stake in Growth pick MWE in July; hold the remainder.

Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM) finally cut its distribution as the market has been long expecting and in contravention of management’s repeated assurances that it wouldn’t, slashing the payout from $1.77 per unit to a new target of 85 cents. The owner of dry bulk carriers and containerships blamed “significant uncertainty relating to global trade, with deepening uncertainty about prices of most seaborne commodities and continued questions relating to the outlook on seaborne volumes and ton miles.” It also cited “ the continued digestion of the oversupply of dry bulk vessels and a difficult financing market.”  The reduced payout was covered at a ratio of 1.69x from the operating surplus. Navios has chartered out 64% of its capacity for 2016 and its 31-vessel fleet has an average remaining charter term of more than three years. But the stock has continued to decline dramatically in the wake of the announcement. It’s now down 47% year-to-date. Aggressive pick NMM is downgraded to Sell.

New Residential Investment (NYSE: NRZ) reported a 14% year-over-year rise in core earnings per diluted share. Core earnings, which exclude asset valuation changes and payments to sponsor Fortress Investment Group (NYSE: FIG) are management’s preferred income measure. The leveraged trust investing in mortgage servicing assets declared a dividend of 46 cents a share, with a coverage ratio of 1.07x based on core earnings. The annualized yield stands at 15.4%. The share price is up 2% year-to-date but down 29% since peaking in May. On the conference call following the results, the CEO said “there is no desire to raise equity and we don’t need to raise equity,” addressing one recent worry weighing on the stock. Buy Aggressive pick NRZ below the reduced limit of $15.

NuStar Energy (NYSE: NS) reported a 1% increase in distributable cash flow from continuing operations, and 1.05x coverage on a distribution kept level for more than four years. NuStar also offered a disappointing forecast for 2016, projecting flat cash flow barely sufficient to cover distributions at the current level. The main culprit was the decline in crude production in the Eagle Ford, which had been the primary focus of NuStar’s growth hopes. Management indicated pipeline throughput on its Eagle Ford system are down 15% from the peak seen in April, though volumes have been flat for several months and are expected to remain so next year. The Eagle Ford slowdown is also hitting NuStar’s terminal profits at nearby Corpus Christi, Texas, though the partnership continues to develop a port project there. The unit price has dropped 11% since the report two weeks ago and 20% year-to-date. The annualized yield is up to 10.2%. Buy Growth pick NS below the reduced limit of $46.

NuStar GP Holdings (NYSE: NSH) reported a 2% year-over-year decline in distributable cash flow, leaving NuStar Energy’s (NYSE: NS) general partner with a coverage ratio of 0.97x on its distribution. The annualized yield is up to 9.3%. The unit price is down 12% in the two weeks since the earnings report and 28% year-to-date. Buy Growth pick NSH below the reduced limit of $27.

Oaktree Capital Management (NYSE: OAK) reported a 37% decline in third-quarter distributable earnings per unit, citing lower incentive income and fee-related earnings following the decision to delay investment periods for some of its newer closed-end funds. The credit asset manager is keeping more of its powder dry on management’s view that the recent credit expansion will turn into a bust in a year or two, providing much better investment opportunities. Oaktree declared a distribution of 40 cents a share, for coverage of 1.23x based on distributable earnings. The latest distribution works out to an annualized yield of 3.1%, though distributions over the last year amounted to 4.1% of the current price. The stock is up 3% year-to-date. Buy Aggressive pick OAK below $52.

PBF Logistics (NYSE: PBFX) doubled distributable cash flow as a result of asset dropdowns by the sponsoring refiner PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF), delivering 1.59x coverage on a distribution increased 30% year-over-year. Management reiterated its goal of increasing payouts at a 15% annual rate over the next few years. Those plans will be aided by the sponsor’s two recent refinery acquisitions from ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), including one in Louisiana and another near Los Angeles. Those deals have pushed sponsor’s backlog of logistics assets suitable for dropping down to PBFX to an annual EBITDA of $280 million, more than twice PBFX’s recent run rate. The annualized yield is 7.7%. The unit price is up 1% year-to-date, down 16% from its June pick and 24% above September’s low. Buy Growth pick PBFX below $28.

Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA) posted a 15% third-quarter decline in implied distributable cash flow per unit, providing coverage of 0.79x on a payout increased 6.1% year-over-year. The crude gatherer and shipper is suffering from margin-sapping competition as domestic crude production starts to decline, and is considering suspending distribution increases for the duration of a “challenging” 2016.       

The distribution coverage year-to-date stands at 0.88x and is expected to improve to 0.94x for the fourth quarter. The annualized yield is up to 10.6% with the unit price down 45% year-to-date and 20% over the last two weeks. With business conditions dimming further since the summer, the partnership is projecting a drop of 25-30% in next year’s capital spending as it waits for projects in progress to come online and oil prices to recover in 2017. It’s likely to need support from its general partner to finance even those reduced spending goals. But Plains has the scale, liquidity and leadership needed to weather this slump. Buy Conservative pick PAA below the reduced limit of $26.

Plains GP Holdings (NYSE: PAGP)  fared better than its affiliated MLP thanks to higher incentive distribution rights, PAA’s payments to its general partner rising 17% year-over-year. That provided 1.0x coverage on a distribution that increased 21.1% year-over-year, but the growth is likely to stall next year if PAA stops increasing its payouts. With the share price down 51% year-to-date the annualized yield is up to 7.7%. Growth pick PAGP is downgraded to Hold.               

Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG) posted third-quarter net income of $85 million and adjusted EBITDA of $151 million, up from adjusted EBITDA of $25 million a year ago. The daily time charter equivalent rose from $15,000 to nearly $27,000 in a year’s time on a greatly expanded fleet now made up of 79 owned product tankers and 13 chartered-in vessels, with another 12 on order. The quarterly dividend was left at 12.5 cents per share, for a current annualized yield of 5.7%. Management noted some market softening early in the fourth quarter, but expects a winter season somewhere between “OK” and “great” within a longer-term industry uptrend. While Scorpio is prioritizing debt refinancing and share buybacks in the near term, dividend growth is on the longer-term agenda. The quarterly dividend amounted to 19% of the operating cash flow for the latest quarter. The stock is up 7% year-to-date but down 21% from the July peak.  Buy Aggressive pick and #9 Best Buy STNG below $12.

SemGroup (NYSE: SEMG) reported a 4% decline in third-quarter EBITDA, on a consolidated basis with its sponsored Rose Rock Midstream (NYSE: RRMS) MLP. Canadian gas processing and an equity ownership stake in NGL logistics provider NGL Energy (NYSE: NGL) were the main drags on performance, offset by diminished losses in crude storage. SemGroup’s quarterly dividend of 45 cents a share, payable Nov. 24, has increased 50% in a year’s time, and was backed by coverage of “well over 1.6x,” as described by management. The current annualized yield is at 5% after a 46% share price decline year-to-date. Buy Growth pick SEMG below the reduced limit of $45.

Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE: SHLX) delivered third-quarter distribution coverage of 1.53x on a payout growing at a 35% annual rate, aided by $1.2 billion of dropdowns from sponsor Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) during its first year as a publicly traded partnership. SHLX is benefiting from growing volumes on its offshore crude gathering systems in the Gulf of Mexico and higher shipping charges on a batched crude pipeline linking Houston with the refining hub in Louisiana. On Nov. 11 it agreed to acquire another offshore pipeline system in the Gulf and a crude storage terminal outside Chicago. The bulk of the $390 million price tag is coming from an equity offering priced at a slender discount to the market, in contrast to the high cost of equity capital demanded of most other MLPs. The unit price is down 18% year-to-date but up 32% from September’s low. The current annualized yield is 2.5%. Growth pick SHLX is upgraded to a Buy below $35.

Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) reported a 10% year-over-year drop in ongoing EBITDA, as gains in the U.S. gas transmission business at the affiliated Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) MLP partially offset declines in gas processing in the U.S. as well as Canada. Third-quarter distributable cash flow dipped 6% year-over-year, but in the year-to-date still offered 1.45x coverage on dividends increased 10.4% from a year earlier. Spectra is forecasting 1.2x coverage for the year, followed by 1.0x in 2016-17 as a higher tax rate takes its toll. That would still permit dividend growth of 9% next year and in 2017, based on management forecasts. The annualized yield is up to 5.4% with the share price down 21% year-to-date.  Buy Conservative pick SE below the reduced limit of $32.

Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) posted a 16% jump in third-quarter EBITDA as extensions to its backbone Texas Eastern pipeline sent more natural gas from Appalachia to the south and west.  Distributable cash flow year-to-date was 1.3x the distributions over the same period, and coverage of 1.1x is expected for the full year. The latest distribution was up 8.7% from a year earlier and works out to an annualized yield of 5.9%. The partnership’s gas transmission contracts are ship-or-pay with a remaining average term of nine years, while its Express crude pipeline has a 10-year average term with minimal volume exposure. SEP aims to continue increasing its distributions by 8-9% annually. The unit price is down 22% year-to-date. Buy Conservative pick SEP below the reduced limit of $57.

SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE) posted unimpressive quarterly results and raised fresh doubts about the medium-term prospects for solar projects, as covered in a recent MLP Investing Insider. Worse still, a management clearly scrambling to meet commitments made in better times lost all credibility by unexpectedly tapping its affiliated yieldco TerraForm Power (NASDAQ: TERP) for further credit support, while at the same time purportedly reclassifying $739 million in debt from non-recourse to recourse by means of a quietly omitted footnote.  The share price is now down 90% since the announcement of the ill-considered deal to buy struggling rooftop panel marketer Vivint Solar (NYSE: VSLR) on July 20, and has depreciated 59% in the six trading sessions since the last report. That’s left the company with $957 in market capitalization atop a $12 billion debt pyramid, a self-reinforcing spiral that threatens its solvency. And while SunEdison plainly needs rescuing, its debt pile could scare off any white knight. It’s time to write off this loser of a recommendation. Aggressive pick SUNE is downgraded to a Sell.

Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL) reported an 8% year-over-year rise in distributable cash flow, as a new Permian Basin pipeline and strong terminals traffic more than made up for the disappearance of crude gathering profits. The distribution coverage was down 1.14x on a payout that still rose nearly 20% year-over-year. The annualized yield is up to 6.4%. The unit price is down 29% year-to-date. The CEO is admittedly one of the more bullish midstream executives out there, suggesting that the crude market will start rebalancing as early as the first half of 2016. His capital spending slate for 2016 reflects that optimism, matching this year’s $2.5 billion in investments. Buy Growth pick SXL below the reduced limit of $36.

Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) increased its dividend 24% year-over-year, for an annualized yield of 8.6% at a unit price now down 58% year-to-date. But the big news was its agreement to acquire the affiliated Targa Resources Partners (NYSE: NGLS) MLP in an all-stock deal designed to curtail the combined payouts and extend the company’s tax shield. The merged company would sticking with Targa’s prior plan to increase dividends 15% next year, followed by growth of 7% in 2017 and 10% in 2018, all with a modest surplus of cash flow coverage the standalone NGLS lacked, according to Targa’s new projections. While the reduced distribution yield will certainly pinch investor incomes, it should also allow Targa to retain and reinvest more of its cash flow at a time when equity and debt fundraising has become expensive. Buy Growth pick TRGP below the reduced limit of $50.

Targa Resources Partners (NYSE: NGLS) unitholders will be getting 0.62 shares of TRGP for each NGLS unit under the merger terms approved by both boards, subject to unitholder and shareholder votes before the expected closing in the first quarter of 2016. Limited partners with deferred capital gains will be getting something a lot less desirable in the form of a tax liability from what will be a fully taxable exchange. The notional 18% premium reflected in the exchange offer has not prevented the unit price from slumping 17% since the deal announcement (vs. a 27% slide since for TRGP). The partnership recently paid a quarterly distribution of 82.5 cents per unit with coverage of 1.1x from distributable cash flow, but faced coverage shortfalls in the coming years under the status quo. It might have been the last NGLS payout. Growth pick NGLS is downgraded to Hold pending the consummation of the merger.

Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK) reported net income attributable to shareholders of 30 cents a share in the third quarter, up from 3 cents a share a year earlier. Free cash flow nearly quadrupled as charter rates remained way up year-over-year. Product tankers made sequential headway as well, while crude tanker rates pulled back a bit from springtime highs during the seasonally weaker summer period. The CEO offered an upbeat outlook on tanker demand and rates so far in the fourth quarter and into 2016 The quarterly dividend stayed level at 3 cents a share, for an annualized yield of 1.7% at a share price that’s risen 44% year-to-date. The company has prioritized paying down debt. We recommended selling a partial stake in Aggressive pick TNK in July; hold the remainder.

TransCanada (NYSE: TRP) reported an 11% decline in net income per common share, while comparable earnings per share slipped less than 2% after factoring out $38 million in unrealized hedging losses and restructuring costs. Higher spot shipments on the Keystone crude pipelines offset lower power generation profits in Canada. While the third-quarter dividend was up 8%, something got lost in translation from the weaker Canadian dollar to its rallying U.S. namesake, leaving the distribution on NYSE-traded TRP shares down 8% in U.S. dollar terms. The big multinational pipeline and power plants operator is targeting continued annual dividend increases of 8-10% through 2017. The yield on U.S.-traded shares is up to 5% with the share price down 32% year-over-year.  Conservative pick TRP is downgraded to Hold.

UBS E-TRACS 2x Monthly Leveraged Long Alerian MLP Index (NYSE: MLPL)  is down 50% year-to-date, though it has also returned 11% of its yea-end 2014 price in distributions paid out this year. The issuer of the exchange-traded note, UBS, recently suspended the issuance of new units, fraying the link between the MLPL and the performance of the underlying MLP index. Aggressive pick MLPL is downgraded to Hold; we’ll look to cut our losses and get out some months after the inevitable, if unpredictable, midstream rally finally arrives.

UGI (NYSE: UGI) matched last year’s adjusted net income but fell well short of its annual guidance for diluted earnings per share, as warmer and less extreme weather dinged energy marketing profits as well as the bottom line of the affiliated propane distributor AmeriGas, while the continued expansion of its European propane business drove up expenses. On an adjusted basis excluding mark-to-market derivatives losses, management forecast earnings-per-share growth of 7-14% in the new fiscal year. At the midpoint of that range the payout ratio would be 40% based on the current dividend yielding an annualized 2.7%. UGI, which also operates a Pennsylvania gas utility and manages pipeline expansion projects in the Marcellus basin, aims to increase its dividend by 4% annually. The share price is down 10% year-to-date but has nearly doubled since April of 2012, when it embarked on a rally that produced a record high late last year. Buy Growth pick and #5 Best Buy UGI below $45.

Williams (NYSE: WMB) reported a 21% jump in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, benefiting from the completion of new onshore and offshore gas pipelines as well as the restart of the Geismar olefins plant in the past year. The third-quarter dividend was up 14% year over-year despite dividend coverage of 0.91x. That’s expected to improve to 1.01x for the full year. The case for owning Williams as a discounted proxy for its pending acquirer Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) was outlined here last month. The unit price is down 13% year-to-date, and the annualized yield is at 6.8%. Buy Growth pick and #2 Best Buy WMB below the reduced limit of $45.

 

Stock Talk

Guest User

Guest User

I almost have to laugh at the luck I’ve had since buying any of these stocks. I’m not blaming you guys. Nobody in their right mind could have seen it get this damn bad.

Spent a good six months buying NMM, finally getting to 10,000 shares at a break even of $12.75. Who would have ever thought the BDI would be at all time lows. ALL FREAKING TIME? I’m not selling though. Can’t bring myself to it at these prices. Just sold 101 June $5 calls because we all know this thing isn’t going up appreciably for probably a year or two minimum. I will continue to sell these calls every six months until things start looking a little better.

Bought 5200 shares of NRZ within twenty cents of all time highs. Went straight down since. Will be holding on to this as well.

MLPL…..started buying at $45 down to $26 with an average of $38 on my 4100 shares. I’m still buying this one every chance I get because I feel this will be a money maker in a big way once the fear and panic subsides.

Let’s not even get started on my MORL investment although it’s my best performer at only 21% down.

Anyone reading this just know you aren’t alone. We’re all taking it on the chin right now. Distributions are still being paid for the most part. NMM cutting hurt though. I’m not cancelling….just going to keep plugging along.

All the best.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I feel your pain and love the attitude. Deeply convinced that it’s the investors who can keep their emotional equilibrium in good times and bad that do best in the long run. Better times definitely coming. Thanks for reading.

Richard Bryan

Richard Bryan

RE: NMM

Seems like NMM is being priced like it is going bankrupt. What is the danger of that?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

In the short term, almost no chance. I’m assuming the distribution coverage of 1.69x on the reduced distribution in Q3 will decline next year, but still allow them to sock away some cash. The $600 million in debt is admittedly now more than the $325 million in rapidly melting market cap, but most of it is not due for another 31 months, at which point one can certainly hope that drybulk rates will be higher than the current “take your ships and shove them” all-time lows. If you also assume credit markets will be no worse then than now, that debt is very likely refinanceable at that time. So there’s time, but obviously that’s hasn’t worked in investors’ favor for awhile now. It’s also worth noting that the Q3 release specifically mentioned ” a difficult financing market” as one of the rationales for the dividend cut.

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