Rent-A-Center Looks Like a Steal

How can a small-cap stock be eleven-fold higher yet still qualify for the bargain bin? If it’s Texas-based Rent-A-Center (Nasdaq: RCII), the nationwide rent-to-own operation offering brand-name durable consumer goods such as furniture and appliances at 2,700 locations.

At about $17.30 a share, the stock is roughly 1,000% above the IPO price of two decades ago but almost 60% off its summer 2013 peak, having taken several nasty spills in the past couple years. However, a stock isn’t automatically a bargain just because the price is way down. There must also be evidence of a sustainable turnaround at the underlying company.

A key new growth initiative at Rent-A-Center: Acceptance Now, a program in which customers who can’t obtain store credit from retailers receive flexible leases. The leases are available through kiosks set up at retail outlets with retailer permission. Under these agreements, Rent-A-Center buys items outright and leases them back to customers for a relatively low monthly fee.

Unmanned Acceptance Now kiosks offering a direct virtual interface with retailers are especially popular, as CEO Robert Davis described during the third-quarter conference call on October 27:

Retailers with lower volumes have been anxiously awaiting our direct program and are rapidly signing up. It is still early in the rollout but the volume we’re seeing in the direct locations is meeting our expectations, and we’re even finding some locations are doing enough business that they are very likely to become staffed locations. We strongly believe that retailers that do not currently have a lease-to-own option in their stores are missing out on a significant sales growth opportunity.

Importantly, Rent-A-Center is also progressing quickly toward full online e-commerce capability, an area where it has severely lagged historically. During the third quarter, for example, the company launched a pilot version of Rentacenter.com, made inroads with social media and established an online focus group to regularly obtain customer feedback.

Despite losing $0.08 a share for the quarter, Rent-A-Center showed marked improvement in numerous other performance metrics, including a 15% gain in Acceptance Now locations to 1,690, nearly a 4% increase in total revenue to $792 million and 5.2% overall growth in same-store sales (sales at locations open for more than a year). The company slashed debt by nearly $42 million, bringing its debt-to-equity ratio to 0.7 or about a fifth that of the typical competitor.

At less than eight times 2016 estimates, Rent-A-Center’s stock looks awfully cheap. It looks like a downright steal when you consider its hefty 5.5% yield and that Rent-A-Center could easily grow profits at a mid-to-high single-digit pace the next couple years, at least.

Around the Roadrunner Portfolios

Shares of the well-known discount footwear retailer DSW Inc. (NYSE: DSW) have taken a beating, sinking 35% in 2015. Like so many retailers, DSW hit a couple potholes this year, the latest being a rough third quarter in which profits fell 20% against a backdrop of tepid consumer spending and unusually warm weather that hurt seasonal item sales.

But we view this as a prime opportunity to get a deal on one of retail’s most consistent long-term performers. DSW’s stock is up over 130% in the past decade, roughly double the S&P 500’s gain during that time. As always, the company boasts a sturdy balance sheet with plenty of cash on hand—currently $99 million versus the three-year average of $91 million—and no debt.

At $113 million, annual free cash flow is, as usual, more than sufficient to cover DSW’s dividend, which has more than quintupled to $0.80 a share since a payout was initiated in 2012. The stock currently yields 3.5%.

Importantly, DSW continues to evolve into an omni-channel retailer, coordinating an expanding online presence with 469 traditional brick-and-mortar outlets to spur sales. CEO Michael McDonald provided an update on this strategy during the November 24th conference call.

Omni-channel sales, which I define as sales that are demanded in one place and fulfilled in another, represent 5% of total sales on a year-to-date basis and they jumped to 6.5% in the month of October. This acceleration provides clear evidence that our omni-channel strategy is resonating with our customers.

Because current headwinds are apt to persist, DSW could have a couple more tough quarters ahead. But analysts see profits rallying 10% next year and maintaining solid gains through 2020, indicating the company still offers plenty of long-term growth and income potential. Its stock only sells for 14.7 times next year’s estimates, which is incredibly cheap for a retailer of DSW’s caliber.

Another stock bargain hunters would be wise to grab while it’s down: one of the world’s leading industrial product distributors, MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE: MSM), which we added to the RoadRunner Value Portfolio in June.

More than a 20% drop in the company’s stock this year reflects the pain many industrials are experiencing because of a sharp slowdown in the manufacturing sector, MSC’s main stomping ground. There, the firm sells fasteners, plumbing supplies, metalworking tools and many other types of industrial products, currently offering a million SKUs from several thousand suppliers.

Though its stock has plunged, MSC’s business is holding up impressively. When management reported full-year fiscal 2015 results on October 27, sales had actually jumped more than 4% to $2.9 billion, while earnings only fell slightly to $3.74 a share from $3.76 in fiscal 2014. The company managed flat sales and only a 5% earnings decline in the fourth quarter, even though market conditions worsened throughout the quarter.

MSC’s strength during downturns typically provides a chance to pull further ahead of competitors, as CEO Erik Gershwind explained during the November 27th conference call.

Historically, economic slowdowns are the times when MSC makes its greatest strides and we expect to do the same this time. While the 70% of the market that’s made up of local and regional distributors is on its heels, we are on our toes. While others are cutting inventories and receivables to preserve cash, our strong free cash flow generation allows us to invest and to provide customers with industry leading service.

While others are retrenching and only focusing on a handful of accounts, we’re attracting new accounts and increasing our share of wallet with existing ones. While others are hanging on to what they have, we’re aggressively pursuing improved purchase cost and supplier deals and pursuing new supplier relationships that will add to the strength of our product portfolio.

The healthy cash flow Gershwind mentioned enabled MSC to raise its dividend every year for the past decade. The stock currently pays $1.72 a share and yields more than 2.8%, giving shareholders plenty of incentive to hang in as MSC rides out the tough times.

VCA Inc. (Nasdaq: WOOF), the animal healthcare specialist, looks to be experiencing a record-breaking year in 2015. The company, which is up more than 60% since joining the Roadrunner Momentum Portfolio in April 2014, is on track to pass $2 billion in sales for the first time ever, with analysts forecasting 11% top-line growth to $2.1 billion.

Profits should thoroughly demolish the prior company record, diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.55 in 2008. VCA’s current guidance is for full-year diluted EPS of $2.08 to $2.18, a 35% improvement at minimum.

VCA is exploding at a time when many companies are hitting a wall because it owns and operates the nation’s largest network of freestanding veterinary hospitals, as well as a formidable collection of laboratories that perform animal diagnostic tests. This places VCA at the forefront of the steadily expanding $29.5-billion pet healthcare market, which is projected to top $44 billion by 2020.

The firm’s market leadership was apparent in third-quarter performance, which CEO Robert Antin discussed in an October 28 press release:

Animal Hospital revenue in the third quarter increased 11.6% to $441.9 million, driven by acquisitions made during the past 12 months and same-store revenue growth of 5.4%. Laboratory revenue increased 9.1% to $100.3 million. Our Laboratory internal revenue growth increased 6.0% to $97.4 million.

Laboratory gross and operating margins were especially impressive, jumping to 51.2% and 41.7%, respectively, from 49.0% and 39.6% in the third quarter of 2014. Animal hospital margins were robust, as well.

Looking forward, we expect VCA to retain its powerful one-two punch of healthy organic growth turbocharged by aggressive dealmaking, like the recent acquisition of 19 animal hospitals with combined annual revenue of nearly $44 million. These catalysts should keep profits climbing at a mid-double-digit pace for at least the next few years, perhaps even a lot longer since consumers are increasingly willing to pay top dollar for specialized pet healthcare services.

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