Staying the Course

Equity markets took a breather in November after strong gains in October. The MSCI World Equities Index was down 0.7%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 5.8% in November. There was no change in Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. Dividend-based investment strategies lost some of their momentum, as the S&P Global Dividend Aristocrats Index dropped 2.6% during the month.

The Dividend Champions Portfolio also lost ground, declining 2.2% in U.S. dollars (0.7% in Canadian currency) after returning 4.3% in U.S. dollars in October.

To gauge the performance of the Dividend Champions Portfolio, we compare it with the broad Canadian equity market index, as this is the universe from which we select stocks for the portfolio. In the nearly seven months since it began, the Dividend Champions Portfolio beat its benchmark, Thomson Reuters Canadian Equities, by more than five percentage points, a considerable margin.

div champs portfolio small tableOther highlights from the month include sound returns from InnVest Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX: INN-U, OTC: IVR.F), Power Corporation of Canada (TSX: POW, OTC: PWCDF) and Whistler Blackcomb Holdings (TSX: WB, OTC: WSBHF), which increased 7%, 7% and 4%, respectively.

InnVest continues to make good progress reorganizing and restructuring its hotel portfolio, and the proof is in its third-quarter results. During the quarter, hotel occupancy rates reached 76.7%, and the average daily room rate increased 8%. Together that led to a 17% bump in gross operating profits. The stronger numbers were the result of improving market conditions as well as renovations and other enhancements to InnVest’s overall portfolio.

InnVest’s balance sheet and liquidity position also improved, with the debt-to-gross-asset-value ratio down to 58.1% from 65.8% a year ago, while the interest cover improved to 2.5 times.

The dividend yield on the units is now 7.5%, and there’s a comfortable dividend payout ratio of 76%. As the portfolio is repositioned and the debt reduced, a dividend increase is unlikely, but we believe the share price has considerable upside potential.

Power Corporation of Canada (TSX: POW, OTC: PWCDF) is a diversified holding company with interests in businesses, such as those in financial services, communications and other sectors, in North America, Europe and Asia. The main asset is the 66% interest in Power Financial, which in turn holds controlling interests in Great-West Lifeco and IGM Financial.

Power Corp. reported third-quarter operating earnings per share that were 37% higher than the same quarter last year. Along with reasonable results from Power Financial, the major boost to profits came from income-producing investments, thanks to gains from private equity and hedge funds. The declared dividend was 7.3% higher than last year.

Power Corp. has a 4% dividend yield and trades at a substantial discount to the value of its portfolio assets, so we are comfortable holding it in the Dividend Champions Portfolio.

Aimia (TSX: AIM, OTC: GAPFF), the loyalty-card operator, performed the worst during the month, with a whopping 19% decline. Although the third-quarter results didn’t differ much from analyst expectations, the share price took a heavy beating anyway, and a weaker 2015 outlook from management helped spur aggressive selling of the stock.

The main reasons offered for the 22% drop in adjusted earnings per share were the rising costs of rewards, higher marketing expenses and declines in gross billings from a reduction in loyalty-partner activity. A key focus for us was the 6% increase in the dividend per share, which points to some degree of optimism from the company’s board of directors.

Cash flow generation remains solid, and free cash flow covers the dividends adequately. The balance sheet is sound, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 11%.

Consequently, 2016 may be a much better year for the company, and given Aimia’s cheap valuation and a dividend yield over 7%, it makes sense to continue holding the stock.

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