A Ray of Sunshine, None Too SUNE

When we finally threw up our hands and called SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE) a sell a month ago, its share price  was dropping  like a sparrow fried by a solar array. The overextended renewable energy developer was short of financing for 2016 and short of plausible lenders on other than payday loan terms. Bankruptcy loomed as a risk that couldn’t be ignored.

What’s happened since hasn’t been pretty at all, and SunEdison remains the proper object of speculation rather than admiration. But that 2016 financing gap has now been closed, beyond that the cash flow should improve and the threat of insolvency has receded.

Here’s what’s been done to stop the rot:

  • SunEdison used its majority control for TerraForm Power (NASDAQ: TERP) and TerraForm Global (NASDAQ: GLBL) to take effective control of both yieldcos, installing its chief financial officer as their CEO and making it clear their liquidity would be used to deleverage its own balance sheet. The next day, it sold TerraForm Global an array of India projects for $231 million, using a portion of the proceeds to pay down a margin loan that had been fueling liquidity concerns
  • Next, it backed out of a $4 billion project pipeline in Brazil it had previously agreed to finance for resale to GLBL
  • Last week, SunEdison negotiated a discount on its pending acquisition of Vivint Solar (NYSE: VSLR), winning a 20% cut in the cash portion of the purchase price and a $250 million financing commitment from private equity giant and Vivint backer Blackstone (NYSE: BX) in exchange for a smaller increase in the stock component of the deal and other concessions
  • Also last week, the company sold two large Maine wind farms to a partnership it had previously formed with institutional investors.

 

Along the way, famous hedge fund manager David Tepper bought a stake in TERP and used it as a platform to air investor grievances, accusing SunEdison of exploiting its yieldcos. In other news, water is wet. A sponsor’s control over the decisions of an affiliated yieldco is every bit as complete as the general partner’s over an MLP, cemented in both cases by founding documents and controlling stakes.

The renegotiated Vivint deal does also provide a discount for TERP on the residential Vivint solar assets it committed to purchase, and which did so much to scare off yieldco investors.

In sum, the moves will secure financing for SunEdison until the point, sometime before the end of 2016, at which the company expects to start generating free cash flow, while giving the yieldcos time to rebuild investors’ trust by delivering the promised distribution growth.

The liquidity backstop limits the near-term downside risk for the stock, while two additional factors could yield considerable upside.

One is the year-end budget deal under negotiation in Congress, which might reportedly lift the outdated ban on U.S. oil exports. In partial compensation, renewable energy investment credits currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2016 would be extended. That would give a badly needed shot in the arm to a solar industry that’s slowed of late in response to low energy prices and in anticipation of the loss of those tax credits.

The other factor that could propel shares significantly higher is high short interest recently estimated at 28% of the float. Short-sellers who’ve been slow to appreciate the improvement in SunEdison’s liquidity may not choose to stick around if the 30% investment tax credit does in fact look like it will be extended.

Some of that has clearly taken place in recent days, so we’ll be waiting for at least a modest pullback to reinstate SUNE in the Aggressive Portfolio. Buy below $4.75.

The yieldcos have also been hard hit by SunEdison’s struggles, of course, and TerraForm Power’s current yield of 11.3% is a reflection of that. It’s also backed by long-term power purchase agreements with investment-grade counterparties, and represents value here given its tax deferral benefits and the potential renewal of the  tax credit. We’re adding TERP to the Aggressive Portfolio with a buy limit of $14.

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