Holding, Not Folding

Portfolio management can be a hard slog in perfectly normal times and is a much more daunting challenge now that multi-billion-dollar pipeline MLPs trade daily with all the volatility of penny stocks.

Industry fundamentals have become a fast-moving target as well, as the plunging prices of crude and natural gas continue to erode producer’s balance sheets.

Still, the difficulty of finding our bearings in this storm shouldn’t resign us to drift.

For example, it seems foolhardy to keep recommending most of our picks as buys until the selling abates and the fundamental picture improves. So we’re downgrading all those that haven’t made the latest Best Buys list to a Hold.

With prices crashing, it makes sense to limit buying only to the very best bets, gradually widening our search again once the market stabilizes.

Our risk assessments for particular recommendations continue to evolve, so that only half of the Conservative Portfolio’s current six still appear to merit that designation. Plains All American (NYSE: PAA), Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) and TransCanada (NYSE: TRP) no longer do, and are therefore moving over to the Growth basket.

Taking their place will be the gas and propane distributor UGI (NYSE: UGI) and gas gatherer and shipper EQT Midstream (NYSE: EQM). With time we should be able to recommend more MLPs as conservative investments. That time, however, is not now.

Meanwhile, we’re also reclassifying current Growth picks Archrock (NYSE: AROC), DCP Midstream Partners (NYSE: DPM), NuStar GP Holdings (NYSE: NSH), Plains GP Holdings (NYSE: PAGP), SemGroup (NYSE: SEMG), Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) and Williams (NYSE: WMB) as Aggressive recommendations. All but DCP Midstream are general partners leveraged to growth that’s in near-term jeopardy, and DCP is too exposed to the price of crude as a leading natural gas processor not to warrant the highest-risk designation.

Buckeye Partners (NYSE: BPL) and Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN) are moving from the Aggressive Portfolio to Growth in recognition of their relative stability. Buckeye is shielded by its primary focus on shipping refined fuels, while Cedar Fair’s amusement parks should continue to perform well so long as gas prices stay low.

 

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