Shale Not Out of Bullets in Price War

The latest U.S. Energy Information forecast issued on Jan. 12 predicts a 7.4% drop in U.S. crude production in 2016. Natural gas output, meanwhile, is expected to increase 0.7% this year.

Why isn’t domestic oil and gas production dropping faster despite the well-known tendency of shale wells to suffer big production drop-offs after the first year? Mainly because the supply of capital available to the producers hasn’t really dried up, and the most efficient drillers haven’t stopped doing their thing.

Notably, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) recently said week it’s aiming to increase its output by 10-15% in 2016. Pioneer is benefiting from prolific Permian Basin wells it says are delivering a 30% internal rate of return at current prices, as well as the foresight to hedge the bulk of this year’s expected crude output at an effective price of more than $50 a barrel.

Production gains are a big factor in the formula used to award management incentives. Investors have also incentivized growth, noted the CEO, telling The Wall Street Journal that “[competitors] that announced production declines into 2016, their stocks are getting hammered.”

In contrast, Pioneer’s stock was recently down just 17% over the last year despite this month’s $1.4 billion equity sale, which diluted prior shareholders by at least 8%. The money raised will cover a little over half of this year’s budgeted capital spending.

The availability of so much equity capital on relatively favorable terms is bad news for the endangered species of crude bulls but a welcome development for the midstream sector that  needs the U.S. oil and gas to keep flowing.

Besides the prospect of pipeline flows drying up, the other bogeyman for midstream investors has been the threat of distribution cuts necessitated by the looming financing shortfalls for expansion projects.

But two master limited partnerships locked down their 2016 fundraising last week without resorting to equity sales that no longer make economic sense at double-digit yields.

Plains All American (NYSE: PAA) said it has satisfied its “equity financing needs for all of 2016 and, in all material respects, all of 2017” by means of a convertible preferred placement. The securities pay annual interest of 8% and can be converted into PAA units after two years at a 33% premium to the current price.

In a related development, PAA announced a quarterly distribution matching the prior quarter’s payout. The preferred issue largely takes off the table the risk of a cut to a distribution recently yielding 14%.

Meanwhile, Oneok Partners (NYSE: OKS) said it’s met all its 2016 funding needs with a $1 billion three-year unsecured floating-rate loan tied to its credit rating and the London Interbank Offered Rate. The current annual finance charge is below 3%. This arrangement looks like a slam dunk versus the option of issuing more equity with a current yield of more than 12%.

So the decently capitalized large-cap drillers and the big pipeline owners don’t seem to be having much trouble attracting outside capital at the moment. But foreign oil exporters’ budget deficits continue to grow. Don’t count out shale in this price war just yet.

 

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