Krispy Kreme Gets Back to Basics

Recent times have been anything but sweet for Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE: KKD), which saw its stock plunge 24% in 2015. Not that Krispy Kreme is going completely to pieces, but missing analysts’ estimates in six of the past eight quarters is never good for share prices.

Key stumbling blocks of late include the relentlessly strong dollar, a distinct disadvantage for Krispy Kreme right now because the majority of its 1,084 locations are overseas. It’s a lot tougher to increase the bottom line with lousy foreign exchange rates offsetting profits. Plus, sales have been soft in the packaged goods segment, a newer growth endeavor in which Krispy Kreme-branded items are marketed to grocery stores and other retailers.

There’s not much to be done about exchange rates but wait for the dollar to fall, which it will eventually. But management can always commit to the smartest-possible business strategy, which for Krispy Kreme means focusing on its traditional strength: reaching customers through the iconic doughnut shops.

To that end, the company is aggressively expanding. During its 2016 fiscal year ended in January, Krispy Kreme spent $31 million to build about 20 new domestic franchises and 100 international franchises. There are plans to add that many more of each in fiscal 2017, with capital expenditures again expected to be in excess of $30 million.

To better compete with Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), Krispy Kreme also intends to get much more into coffee, a growth opportunity it has long neglected. CEO Tony Thompson elaborated on this during the December conference call:

During the quarter, we took a huge step with the opening of a newly designed test shop that is allowing us to experiment with the new in-store guest experience with the intent of driving higher beverage attachment. The guest experience in this new store includes a new ordering process and customer flow. The shop has a more contemporary, warmer and inviting dining area with Wi-Fi and much more pronounced coffee presentation as well as exterior improvements. This is still a test but we are pleased with what we are seeing.

Assuming this catches on with consumers, coffee could double its contribution to Krispy Kreme doughnut shop sales to 10% of the total from 5% currently, Thompson recently told Bloomberg.

Investors wondering how Krispy Kreme will be able to afford all the new growth initiatives needn’t worry. Despite unusually hefty capital outlays, it still finished fiscal 2016 with $31 million of free cash flow, and that amount has since increased. The company’s balance sheet shows historically high levels of cash, rising stockholders’ equity and no debt.

Around the Roadrunner Portfolios

Expansion efforts at value portfolio holding Stepan Company (NYSE: SCL) are moving along nicely, prompting optimism about the specialty chemical maker’s profit outlook. When Stepan reports fourth-quarter results on February 24, analysts see earnings jumping nearly 40% to $0.53 per share and full-year profits rising 29% to $3.26 a share.

Clearly, they saw promise in the latest earnings report, in which CEO F. Quinn Stepan, Jr. highlighted recent achievements and their effect on crucial functions, namely sulfonation and polyol production. Sulfonation is a process that yields Stepan’s flagship products, surfactants, which are chemicals found in household and industrial cleaners. Polyols are chemical components of polyurethane coatings, adhesives and sealants, among many other products that contain polymers (synthetic plastic).

Mr. Stepan remarked:

During the quarter, we made significant progress on a number of key strategic initiatives. Our long-term supply agreement with The Sun Products Corporation, announced on July 9, 2015, has significantly improved our North American sulfonation capacity utilization. We have successfully integrated our second-quarter purchase of a sulfonation plant in Bahia, Brazil. We have advanced projects to add polyol capacity in China, Poland and the United States.

The Sun Products Corporation Mr. Stepan mentioned is one of the top laundry detergent manufacturers in the U.S. Under the new deal between the two firms, Stepan Company will supply all the surfactant Sun Products needs to make its detergents.

Despite currency headwinds, recent initiatives propelled Stepan to an excellent Q3. Total sales volume increased 7%, while surfactant and polymer sales volumes rose 8% and 4%, respectively.

In terms of profit, there was an 84% gain in net income to $24.9 million. Surfactant operating income nearly doubled to $21.8 million and polymer operating income jumped 35% to a company record $24.6 million. Polymers had record quarter mainly because of volume and margin growth in rigid polyols, CFO Scott Beamer said.

It’s still rough going for RoadRunner small-value pick Vishay Precision Group (NYSE: VGP), an industrial equipment components maker that’s been a casualty of weak demand in struggling sectors like steel and energy. The third-quarter earnings release showed further declines in overall financial performance, and we wouldn’t be surprised if the fourth-quarter report due out later this month contained similar news.

But as promised in our October update on the firm, we’re watching closely to be sure Vishay keeps making headway on technologies that could pay off handsomely down the road. Especially promising is a burgeoning line of smart sensors that maximize the function of many types of equipment such as that used in transportation, agriculture and medicine, to name just a few.

Sales of these advanced sensors have exploded, more than doubling in 2014 and posting impressive gains last year, too. CEO Ziv Shoshani offered his take on third-quarter sales during the latest conference call:

An important part of our strategy is to grow by developing new product offerings and our advanced sensor continues to gain traction. This platform which is part of our [Foil Technology Products] segment in which we developed a few years ago is reporting revenue increase of 47.3% in Q3 of 2015 versus Q3 of 2014. I’m very pleased with the continued acceptance of this new sensor platform, as it offers enhanced performance to customers in conjunction with the competitive cost base.

Vishay is also making progress with acquisitions, significantly boosting its sensor business with a $20 million buyout of Stress-Tek in January. Stress-Tek is a leader in sensor and display systems for use in the trucking, timber, refuse and mining industries, among others.

To help trim expenses during the current downturn, Vishay launched a comprehensive restructuring and cost-reduction program in November. Although this will trigger roughly a $4 million restructuring charge primarily affecting fourth-quarter results, the program is expected to save about $6 million annually beginning this year.

We love to see companies making smart investments like these despite tough times. In Vishay’s case, they should set the stage for a strong rebound once business conditions finally improve.

No pun intended, but it was a bang-up fourth quarter for automotive firm Gentex Corporation (Nasdaq: GNTX), a RoadRunner value portfolio for three years. Quarterly highlights included 25% increases in both net income and earnings to $88 million and $0.30 per share, respectively.

Profit growth was due mainly to strong demand for Gentex’s flagship products, so-called electrochromic rear- and side-view mirrors that dim automatically to minimize headlight glare. Unit shipments of such mirrors spiked 17% during the quarter, contributing to a 16% gain in total revenue to $406 million. The gross margin rose almost two percentage points to 40.2%, despite a substantial increase in the cost of goods sold, R&D and other operating expenses.

During the fourth-quarter conference call, Vice President of Engineering Neil Boehm put recent performance into broad context:

[Gentex] has continued to demonstrate solid growth at one of the fastest rates in company history. This growth is being driven by continued penetration of our core electrochromic technology on many vehicles that are new applications for our products.

Looking at the growth rate of inside and outside electrochromic mirrors, as measured in new vehicle launches, the company has continued a solid history of growth over the last three years. In 2013, the company had 37 new launches of inside and outside electrochromic mirrors. In 2014, there were 43 new launches of inside and outside electrochromic mirrors, and in 2015 the company had 63 new launches of inside and outside electrochromic mirrors.

Management expects robust performance again in 2016, including as much as an 11% gain in revenue to $1.7 billion. With demand for electrochromic mirrors so strong, Gentex remains plenty capable of such growth. The long-term looks good, too, as there are other potential uses for its technology in the automotive and aerospace industries, analysts say.

Yet Gentex is still widely overlooked: Its stock currently sells for only 10.5 times 2016 estimates. Plus, many investors are probably unaware the firm has been paying dividends for many years and currently yields a solid 2.5%.

 

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