Doomsday Postponed

Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP) reported a 17% year-over-year lift in operating income, just ahead of the 15% rise in the unit count. That was enough for 1.1x coverage on a distribution kept level with the prior quarter. The annualized yield is up to 25% on a unit price down 32% in 2016. CPLP could distribute 15% solely from its increasingly lucrative charters in the strong products and crude tanker markets, while the remaining 10% relies on containership charter revenues that are less secure, as elaborated in a recent portfolio update. On Feb. 3 CPLP announced the chartering of its two recently idle containerships effective in April, at unspecified but undoubtedly low rates, for a year with an option for a second year. Aggressive pick CPLP is the #7 Best Buy below $5.50.

Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) delivered a 15.7% year-over-year increase in its fourth-quarter distribution ahead of results due the evening of Feb. 25. That pushed the annualized yield to 9.6% based on a unit price currently down 31% year-to-date. The refinery logistics affiliate of the southern refiner Delek Holdings (NYSE: DKL) has previously promised to continue the distribution growth at its current pace over the coming years. Growth pick DKL is the #4 Best below $40.

Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) declared a fourth-quarter distribution matching the third quarter’s payout and generating a 19.3% yield based on a unit price down 57% year-to-date. The main overhangs remain the generally diminished prospects for near-term midstream growth and the potential for a restructuring at Chesapeake, which would likely devalue the midstream commitments Chesapeake has made to ETE merger partner Williams (NYSE: WMB). Uncertainty over the fate of the merger and in particular the $6 billion cash component due to be paid out by ETE hasn’t helped, and the unexplained recent departure of the chief financial officer promoted a 42% plunge in the unit price on Feb. 8. Despite repeated speculation that Energy Transfer remains committed to the merger it hasn’t said so publicly, though it will have a hard time avoiding doing so in the course of discussing quarterly earnings on Feb. 25. As noted in a recent portfolio update, the renegotiation of Chesapeake’s contracts would have a muted effect on the merged company’s cash flows.  Growth pick ETE is the #2 Best Buy below $15.

Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) declared a fourth-quarter distribution in line with the third-quarter payout, for an annualized yield of 16.2% based on unit price down 23% in 2016. With general partner ETE extending a $95 annual management fee due ETP that had been scheduled to expire last year, capital spending cut to $4.2 billion from a previously planned $5 billion and hoped-for asset sales, ETP said it will not need to raise debt or equity this year.  Growth pick ETP is a Hold.

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)  reported fourth-quarter distributable cash flow little changed from a year earlier, and increased its distribution 5.4% year-over-year. The annualized yield stands at 7.2% based on a unit price down 16% in 2016; distribution coverage was 1.29x excluding asset sale proceeds. Crude, natural gas and natural gas liquids all delivered a year-over-year earnings boost, offsetting a decline in petrochemical and refined products services as well as the sale of offshore assets in the Gulf of Mexico last summer. Responding to investors’ worries that driller bankruptcies will hit midstream cash flows, Enterprise said it has a total of 2.4% exposure to the eight junk-rated drillers on its customer roster. Enterprise invested $6.4 billion last year including two billion-dollar acquisitions, while completing growth projects worth $2.7 billion in the course of the year. It has another $6 billion of projects set to come on line over the next two years, including a big petrochemical plant at its Gulf fractionation hub. Getting these done will require investing $3 billion this year. Conservative pick EPD is a #3 Best Buy below $30.

EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM) reported a 47% increase in distributable cash flow powered by dropdowns from sponsoring gas driller EQT (NYSE: EQT) as well as growing transmission volumes as EQT and others increase shipments from the Marcellus. A distribution coverage of 1.54x backed a payout increased 22% year-over-year. The current yield is 4.1% after a 9% unit-price decline year-to-date, Conservative pick EQM is a Hold.

Global Partners (NYSE: GLP) slashed its distribution by 34% on Jan. 28, citing “severe headwinds in the crude oil market,” and in particular the railcar leases and other fixed costs of a crude-by-rail logistics business originating in the Bakken, which has lost much of its rationale with the completion of additional pipeline takeaway capacity from the region and the falling cost of the competing grades of imported crude. The unit price is down 22% year-to-date as a result, for a current yield of 13.5% based on the reduced distribution. That’s backed primarily by gasoline distribution and retail profits that should remain robust. The partnership is expected to report quarterly results in mid-March and should elaborate then on its distribution plans beyond the current payout. After making our Jan. 19 list of Best Buys Growth pick GLP was downgraded to a Hold following the distribution cut.

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) reported a decline of 8% in distributable cash flow per share in the fourth quarter, as contributions from the $3 billion Hiland midstream acquisition announced a year earlier failed to offset increased financing costs, diminished oil production revenue, the hit to the terminals business from two coal customer bankruptcies and the increase of nearly 5% in the common shares outstanding over the past year. The midstream giant declared the previously reduced dividend of 12.5 cents per share, down from 51 cents per share, for a current annualized yield of 3.3%. Management continued to stress that the retained cash will be spent on lucrative capital projects, keeping the company from raising funds in hostile capital markets for the duration of the year. Volumes in the gas and products pipelines accounting for the bulk of Kinder Morgan’s profits continue to grow, and management used the analyst meeting held a week later to note that almost all of its cash flow is protected by long-term fee-based arrangements with a widely diversified group of mostly investment-grade customers. The company forecast flat distributable  cash flow in 2016, with pipelines and terminals expected to make up for further slippage in crude revenues at an assumed average price of $38 a barrel for the year. The share price perked up after the earnings report, held up following analyst day and is now flat year-to-date. Growth pick KMI is a Hold.

Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) reported a 3.5% year-over-year rise in fourth-quarter distributable cash flow to a record, as rising volumes on recently completed crude pipelines in Texas offset weaker refined fuel shipments. The distribution rose 13% in a year’s time, currently yielding 5.1% based  on a unit price down 9% since the beginning of the year. The distribution coverage was 1.44x for the quarter and 1.38x for all of 2015. Magellan forecast a 5% decline in distributable cash flow for 2016 but still expects to increase the distribution 10% this year and at least 8% in 2017, which would result in coverage of 1.2x based on its forecast. Conservative pick MMP is the #1 Best Buy below $80.

PBF Logistics (NYSE: PBFX) reported fourth-quarter distributable cash flow 21% higher than a year earlier, while the unit count rose 11% in a year’s time. The gain, largely attributable to the cash generated by the assets recently purchased from its sponsor, produced 1.37x coverage on a distribution increased 24% from a year ago. With the unit price down 19% in 2016, the current annualized yield stands at 9.5%. PBFX recently agreed to buy four Philadelphia-area fuel terminals from Plains All American (NYSE: PAA) for $100 million, a multiple a little shy of 7 based on a projected annual EBITDA of $15 million for those assets. Additional growth should come from additional dropdowns from the sponsor, which has recently acquired two additional refineries. Growth pick PBFX is the #5 Best Buy below $28.

Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA) reported a drop of merely 5% in fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA and a 1% decline for all of 2015, out of all proportion with the 65% slump in its unit price in under 10 months. It kept the distribution level with the third-quarter’s 70-cent payout, a level likely to hold all year long as Plains completes the new projects it’s counting on to rebuild its distribution coverage. That slid to 0.79x for all of 2015, and is only forecast to rebound to 0.87x in 2016 before finally climbing back over 1 the following year. In the meantime, PAA is financing some of its current 15.4% yield, as well as the $1.5 billion in growth investments it plans to make this year, with help from the recently placed $1.6 billion convertible preferred issue yielding 8%.  Growth pick PAA is a Hold.

Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) posted a 13% distributable cash flow decline for the full year, with losses at its DCP Midstream joint venture and a sharp slowdown in gas shipping and processing in western Canada more than offsetting the improved performance of Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) assets in the U.S. That was enough to pay out $1.48 in dividends with 1.25x coverage for the year. The distribution, increased by nearly 10% for 2016, yields an annualized 5.7% following the stock’s 18% year-to-date rally. That’s powered by Spectra’s natural gas transmission backbone, currently spawning extensions up and down the East Coast to bring natural gas from the Marcellus to power plants from Southeast to New England. Growth pick SE is a Hold.   

Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) received the necessary shareholder and unitholder approvals for its pending buyout of its Targa Resources Partners (NYSE: NGLS) affiliate, permitting the deal to close on Feb. 17. NGLS limited partners will receive 0.62 shares of TRGP for each NGLS unit in a fully taxable transaction  that will trigger deferred tax liabilities for longtime investors. On Feb. 9, Targa released preliminary fourth-quarter guidance implying a sequential decline of 25% in natural gas plant inlet volumes, and 1.15x distribution coverage on a payout that was kept level with the prior distribution. With the share price down 42% year-to-date, the annualized yield has jumped to 23%. Management cautioned that “notwithstanding the partnership’s fourth quarter performance, if the volatility of the commodity markets continues and prices remain at current levels or weaken further, then the ability to predict becomes more uncertain.” Full quarterly results are due on Feb. 25. Growth pick TRGP is a Hold.

 

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