Two Words: Architectural Glass

In the 1967 film classic The Graduate, young Ben Braddock (Dustin Hoffman) gets unsolicited career advice for the investment opportunity at that time. Mr. McGuire, a family friend and successful businessman, pulls Ben aside at his college graduation party and insists, “I just want to say one word to you…plastics.”

If the movie was set today, he might have two words for Ben: architectural glass.

Architectural glass isn’t typical window glass. Instead, it’s glass used as a building material for everything from partitions in offices to skyscraper exteriors to making storefronts energy- efficient and hurricane-resistant.

apogee epsLike the plastics market of the 1960s, the architectural-glass industry is thriving today. According to market research firm Grand View Research, the global market for such glass in commercial building construction and renovation is poised to grow 7.2% annually, mainly because of rising demand for glass building facades that cut energy costs and look good.

By that estimate, architectural glass for nonresidential buildings will balloon to more than a $90 billion industry in 2022, from about $60 billion last year.

Another promising sign for architectural glass: the level of the Architecture Billings Index (ABI), a leading indicator of commercial and industrial building construction based on monthly billings.  For several years, the ABI has been around 50 to 55, a level associated with steady growth and well above Great Recession readings in the mid 30s and 40s.

We recommend capitalizing on the trend through Growth Stock Strategist portfolio holding Apogee Enterprises (NSDQ: APOG), a small-cap stock we’ve been following for several years. In that time, shares of APOG are up about 55%, roughly double the S&P 500’s gain.

Established Winner

Architectural glass is Apogee’s core business, providing 34% of annual revenue. Key products include custom windows and large, energy-efficient, glass building panels.

There are also several complementary businesses, the largest a provider of aluminum framing for Apogee’s architectural-glass products. This segment accounts for 32% of revenue, while another 25% comes from selling architectural services, such as design and installation. A relatively small manufacturing operation earns 9% of revenue customizing glass and acrylic sheets used in framing fine art and museum pieces.

apogee airportSome analysts lament Apogee’s tepid results the past few quarters, when slowing sales and earnings disappointed Wall Street. But we’re not worried about short-term speed bumps like these because Apogee is a proven long-term performer.

The past five years, sales were up almost 11% annually, while earnings staged a dramatic turnaround from a 37-cent-per-share loss in 2011, a year Apogee was still feeling the effects of the recession. The company now earns $2.01 a share, by far its largest profit in at least a decade.

Such results require ongoing innovation, which is why Apogee typically devotes $7 million to $8 million annually to research and development. Lately, R&D efforts have zeroed in on two areas of especially strong demand, custom windows and curtainwall systems. The latter are metal-framing systems for the architectural glass used in all-glass building facades.

Apogee is also tightening its grip on these markets through acquisitions. In November 2013, for example, it bought Alumicor Ltd., a Canadian architectural framing manufacturer with $60 million of annual revenue from curtainwall systems and frames for entranceways, storefronts and windows. It was a smart buy, as Alumicor has a history of rising sales and robust profit margins.

A few months earlier, Apogee purchased Colorado-based Custom Window, a $10 million-per-year operation specializing in aluminum windows that meet stringent historic-preservation standards. Custom Window also makes windows for public schools and low-rise office buildings.

Apogee’s management predicted both acquisitions would be instrumental in raising total revenue to $1 billion, a company record. The firm should surpass that goal in its current fiscal year, ending February 2017, with analysts currently forecasting full-year sales of $1.1 billion.

Expansion Ahead

Apogee had planned to crack $1 billion in fiscal 2016 but is expected to disclose sales of $978 million in its year-end report on April 6. Still, performance will fall short only because some customers fell behind on their construction and renovation projects, forcing Apogee to shift product deliveries into the next few fiscal years.

Although that hindered short-term performance, it only boosts a long-term growth outlook that was already promising: Apogee finished the second quarter of fiscal 2016 with a $512 million order backlog, which has since jumped to a company record of $545 million. Because Apogee is adept at winning new business, backlogs should remain large and drive steady expansion.

Other key tailwinds include especially strong profit margins in the aluminum-framing and custom glass and acrylic businesses, which should enhance the bottom line. The balance sheet shows progressive gains in the company’s overall value and a tenth of the debt of the typical rival.

In its Dec.19 earnings release, Apogee reported cash and cashlike investments (liquid assets) of $91 million, nearly three times the total at the same point in the prior fiscal year. At $82 million, free cash flow—cash from operations minus the amount reinvested in the business—is more than triple the past decade’s average of $25 million.

A sturdy balance sheet and plentiful cash will let Apogee continue its winning strategy of growth through innovation and acquisition. They’ll also allow the company to keep raising its dividend, which nearly doubled to 50 cents a share in the past decade, giving Apogee a solid 1.3% yield.

Though up sharply, the company’s stock remains affordable. Shares currently sell for only 14.4 times projected fiscal 2017 earnings, a 13% discount to the broader stock market.

Buy Apogee up to $45

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