A Diamond in the Coal Dust

Winter’s come and gone, taking with it the chance to buy midstream MLPs at generational lows. We might or might not get a pullback next month, but anyone looking for a rerun of the recent panic will in all likelihood end up waiting years.

Prices are up a lot over the last two months for no reason more sinister than the fact that they cratered immediately prior. There are still deals out there that will seem too good to have been true once energy prices rebound to more sustainable levels.

It’s no secret that Robert and I have been most bullish on the medium-term prospects of natural gas, which is likely to end up in short supply before long as a result of the recently depressed prices. Though the benchmark U.S. price has finally climbed back above $2 per million British thermal units, that’s not enough to incentivize drilling outside the Appalachian Basin, which is blessed with the lowest-cost gas deposits in the bountiful Marcellus and Utica shales.

Meanwhile, the same low prices shrinking future supply are also stoking demand from U.S. power plants, new petrochemical factories, LNG export terminals and pipeline exports to Mexico.

Marcellus and Utica are best placed by far to satisfy that demand, and can do so much more economically than any other U.S. basin. That’s why we’ve been recommending leading Appalachian midstream provider EQT Midstream (NYSE: EQM) for nearly three years now, faith it’s rewarded with a total return of 69% over that span despite the recent bear market. Another Marcellus prodigy, Antero Midstream Partners (NYSE: AM). has set us back 19% since its late 2014 initial public offering, meaning it too has held up relatively well.

EQM (recently upgraded to a Buy below $80) remains perhaps the most successful Appalachian MLP, thanks mostly to the top-notch acreage and rock-solid finances of its sponsor EQT (NYSE: EQT), another of our recommendations. That’s reflected in a yield below 4%.

But there’s another regional midstream player that’s yielding considerably more while selling at a lower valuation, and with more near-term upside than EQM if investors’ concerns about one of its sponsors fade.

CONE Midstream Partners (NYSE: CNNX) came public in September 2014 as a gas gathering MLP jointly sponsored by CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX) and Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL). It operates under 20-year fixed-fee dedication agreements with both; each of the sponsors owns just under a third of the limited partner units.

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Source: CONE Midstream Partners presentation

Since the IPO, CONE has consistently met or exceeded its financial and operational forecasts, and as a result it delivered 1.33x distribution coverage on a payout increased 15% over the past year. The current yield stands at 7.2%. and Cone plans to raise the distribution another 15% this year. If this year’s distributable cash flow hits the midpoint of management’s forecast for an increase of 11% to 25%, CONE won’t need to raise capital to finance its modest growth spending plans.

The modesty stems from CONSOL’s decision to slow the rapid growth of its Marcellus output this year by idling all drilling rigs and focusing on completing previously drilled wells instead. That’s still expected to boost gas production 15% this year. But the strategy has likely furthered the perception of CONSOL as just another hard-up coal producer. Forty percent of CONSOL’s share float was recently sold short, in the wake of bankruptcy filings by several coal producers.

In fact, CONSOL’s Pennsylvania mines are among the industry’s most productive and efficient, delivering cash flow even in the currently depressed coal market. The company’s decision to finance investments from operating cash flow and to hold off drilling gas wells until prices improve reflects the strategy of a prudent survivor rather than a desperate gambler. Debt has been stable for years and the bulk of next year’s coal output has already been contracted.

Once gas prices turn up, the company will have the financial flexibility to resume drilling its highly prospective acreage again, especially in the Utica dry gas window that has already yielded a few monster gushers.

Yet the pall from coal hangs over both CONSOL and its midstream offspring, as CONE Midstream execs acknowledged on the most recent earnings call. That probably goes a long way toward explaining why CNNX still trades at a relatively low 10.4x trailing EBITDA and 8.5x the mid-point of management’s forecast for 2016, based on enterprise value.

Antero Midstream, which is probably the best comparison, trades at nearly 15 times its forecast 2016 EBITDA.

Right now, CONE’s 15% distribution growth rate is only half that of Antero Midstream’s, but it is likely to speed up once its sponsors resume drilling. And the MLP will have plenty of scope for financing the inevitable increase in capital spending that will result. Debt stands at just 0.9x last year’s EBITDA, and the cash flow drain from sponsor incentive distribution rights is low, this early in its growth trajectory.

We’re adding CNNX to our Growth Portfolio and designating it the #8 Best Buy. Buy below $17.

 

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