Different Strokes for Different Folks

The expression “different strokes for different folks” certainly applies to the investment world. For day traders, the excitement of a quick profit gets the juices flowing. Buffett-style investors take immense pride and pleasure in ten-baggers that amass over long periods of time. For me, investment nirvana is achieved when management teams do their jobs well and deliver consistently growing dividend streams.

Although at publication of this report we are only halfway through the quarterly earnings results, we haven’t suffered any dividend reductions or omissions despite the fact that a few of the Champions experienced tough trading conditions. Please see below short summaries of the companies that have reported quarterly results so far. More complete reports can be found in the weekly Maple Leaf Memos.

BCE Inc. (TSX: BCE, NYSE: BCE), the top holding in the Dividend Champions portfolio, delivered another steady quarter. Revenue increased marginally and operating expenses were well contained, resulting in an EBITDA increase of 3.3%, adjusted earnings per share growth of 1.2% and a dividend increase of 5% compared to the same quarter last year.

Management left guidance for the full year unchanged, with earnings per share expected to be about 4% higher than last year and the dividend expected to increase by 5%. The balance sheet remains somewhat stretched, but cash flow is excellent. The valuation remains attractive in absolute terms, with an enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of just over 8 times and a dividend yield of 4.7%. We estimate the fair value of the stock at C$64 or US$51.

Canadian National Railway (TSX: CNR, NYSE: CNI) reported decent first-quarter results, with earnings per share up 16% and the dividend 20% higher than last year. However, investors did not appreciate the lowered profit outlook for the current year, and the share price came under substantial pressure.

Revenue declined by 4% but operating expenses, down 14%, were extremely well contained in a weak operating environment. The key operating ratio (operating expenses as a portion of revenues) declined to 58.9%, a first quarter record low.

The balance sheet remains solid and the cash flow excellent. The valuation for the stock remains full, with a premium valuation compared to its North American peers. We estimate the fair value of the stock at C$82 with a dividend yield of 1.8%.

Thomson Reuters (TSX:TRI, NYSE:TRI) delivered a reasonable first quarter, with a 23% increase in adjusted earnings per share and a 2% increase in the dividend. However, the result was “noisy,” which complicated analysis.

The company expects to deliver low single-digit revenue growth for the full year and slightly higher profit margins. The valuation on the business is complicated by the pending sale of the Intellectual Property business, because it’s unclear how much the sale will bring in and how the company will use the proceeds. On our profit estimates, the business now seems fully valued. We estimate the fair value at C$53 or US42 and the dividend yield is 3.3%.

Choice Properties REIT (TSX: CHP-U; OTC: PPRQF), the landlord predominantly to Loblaw, a top Canadian food retailer, delivered another round of steady progress.

Funds from operations per unit increased by 6% while the distribution per unit was lifted by 3% compared with a year ago. The valuation remains reasonably attractive, with a distribution yield of 5.1% and a payout ratio of 82%.

WestJet Airlines Ltd. (TSX:WJA, NYSE:WJAVF) delivered lower first-quarter 2016 profits compared to an all-time record quarter last year. Earnings per share declined by 35%, while the dividend was kept unchanged.

The outlook for the rest of the year seems to be somewhat better, with consensus estimates indicating an 18% decline in earnings per share for the full year and a decent bounce in 2017. The dividend may increase marginally this year but should resume its stronger growth path in 2017.

The business valuation remains undemanding with the 2016 price to earnings ratio at 8.4 times and a dividend yield of 2.8%. We estimate the fair value at C$23 or US17.

TransCanada Corp. (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP) reported a 6% increase in adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter. The dividend was 9.6% higher than a year ago.

A key focus for the company is the conclusion of the $13 billion Columbia Pipeline Group. Subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals, the deal is expected to close in the second half of 2016.

The balance sheet is fully levered, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 65% although the credit rating remains investment grade.

Adjusted earnings per share for the full year is expected to grow by 3% and the dividend by 9%. The valuation remains below its core peer group, and the well-covered dividend yield is attractive at 4.3%.

The full extent of the energy market meltdown was evident in the first-quarter results of Suncor Energy (TSX:SU, NYSE:SU). Operating cash flow per share dropped 56% below the level achieved in the same quarter last year. Courtesy of a strong balance sheet, the dividend was 3.5% higher than last year.

The balance sheet remains solid, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 30%. However, both Moody’s and S&P recently downgraded the rating outlook — although it remains at investment grade.

We are holding Suncor in the Dividend Champions portfolio for its ability to sustain its dividend during commodity down cycles. This ability is now severely tested, but we remain confident that better days will come again for the company as energy prices recover. The dividend yield is currently 3.2% with prospects for growth largely dependent on energy prices.

Fortis Inc. (TSX:FTS, OTC:FRTSF) reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share 3% higher than the same period last year while the dividend was 10% higher.

A key focus for Fortis is the completion of the US$11.3 billion acquisition of ITC, the US Midwest transmission business. Financing arrangements for the transaction received a major boost with the sale of a 19.9% interest to the Singapore Wealth Fund for US$1.2 billion. Closing is expected in late 2016.

Fortis’ balance sheet remains in a good condition with a debt-to-capital ratio of 55%, although the A- S&P credit rating was moved to a negative outlook after the announcement of the ITC acquisition.

The company intends to grow its dividend by 6% per year for the foreseeable future. We estimate the fair value at C$41 or US$32 with a dividend yield of 3.7%

RioCan REIT (TSX:REI-U, OTC:RIOCF) reported first-quarter operating funds from operation per unit  which was 4.8% higher than last year. Distributions per unit were unchanged.

Committed occupancy improved slightly during the quarter to 94.8% but is still lower than the 97% achieved before the departure of Target Canada in early 2015. Management reports that it has signed or received commitments from new tenants that will cover 114% of the lost Target base rent.

RioCan currently has an attractive distribution yield of 5.2%, but we are concerned about the lack of growth and the sale of the US portfolio will not help either. We will remain shareholders in the Dividend Champions portfolio for now.

The table on the next page lists the relevant dividend information for our current Dividend Champion holdings.

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