Portfolio Update

Ethan Allen

Wedding guests can now buy Ethan Allen products for engaged couples on MyRegistry.com, the leading online wedding gift registry. A wedding gift registry gives soon-to-be married couples a place to let their guests know their gift preferences.

The company is also offering a 15% discount on any remaining items on newly married couples’ gift registries for six months after the wedding. Ethan Allen is smart to establish a relationship with newlyweds, part of its strategy to woo younger customers with new contemporary furniture designs.

Express

The tight-fisted consumer has claimed another victim. Express missed first quarter earnings by $.02 and lowered numbers dramatically for the second quarter and the fiscal year. To date the company’s focus on young professionals has enabled it to grow revenue but it was unable to avoid the dramatic evaporation of consumer demand. We are moving Express to a hold. Second quarter revenue will be down single digits and earnings are expected to be $.17 versus $.25, earnings growth should resume in the third quarter. At $13 the stock’s valuation is well below its peer group despite a better earnings profile. The sudden and draconian drop in conumer spending this quarter has taken out almost every retail stock we monitor. Macy’s, Nordstrom, Fossil and Limited Brands have all lowered 2017 estimates and expect declines as large as 52% in fiscal 2017 earnings. While we are not pleased that Express lowered estimates for the year from growth of 14% to zero growth, results are much better than peers. xpress is trading at about 9 times the $1.48 mid-point estimate for fiscal 2017 (ends January). The peer group above trades at an average of 14 times 2017 earnings despite an average earnings decline of 24%.

Gentex

The automatic-dimming car mirror maker announced a 9 cent quarterly dividend last week. The dividend will be paid out on July 20 to those holding Gentex stock by July 7.

The 9-cent dividend is up nearly 6% over last quarter’s dividend of 8.5 cents, in line with the company’s five-year dividend growth rate. Gentex continues to meet earnings expectations and increase its dividend at a steady clip. Fiscal 2016 earnings-per-share estimates of $1.18 remain unchanged since March.

Lattice Semiconductor

Lattice reported a stable quarter on May 9. Revenue was a few million less than hoped for, but a $6 million payment that had been penciled into the quarter was not received.

Product margins were much better than expected, mainly due to higher sales of more profitable industrial products. A loss of one penny was in line with estimates. The company is on track to deliver $0.44 of earnings this year.

Management’s tone was noticeably more optimistic. Although no new guidance was released, management reiterated that the first quarter would be the low point for revenue. New wins with major consumers increase visibility into a stronger second half of the year.

Solid wins in drones, virtual reality headsets and camera technology products highlight Lattice’s strength in low-cost, high-definition imaging and super-high-speed connectivity tools. Lattice should start to creep higher in anticipation of these product launches.

Integrated Device Technology

In early May Integrated reported fourth-quarter revenue and earnings that were better than expected. The stock is up 10% in the last month based on these strong numbers.

Revenue grew 20% to $189 million, $2 million higher than forecasts. Earnings of 36 cents were a few cents higher than estimates. Most importantly management was unquestionably bullish about prospects for recently acquired ZMDI. Cross-selling of Integrated chips into automotive customers is off to a very strong start, and customer response has been overwhelmingly positive.

Infotainment and wireless charging applications in automobiles should drive robust growth for these chips and helps diversify Integrated’s revenue away from communications orders, which can be lumpy and are hard to predict.

Guidance for the June quarter is for 36 cents, up 16% and higher than estimates of 34 cents. We think estimates for only mid-single-digit annual earnings growth in 2016 and 2017 are too conservative.

After the solid earnings report, Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to a buy and Brean Murray initiated coverage with a buy rating.

Supreme Industries

Supreme got clocked at the end of the month due to cautious statements from Ryder, the national truck-leasing company. The comments were directed specifically to the rental business, an area that Supreme agrees is its the strongest market.

Supreme management noted that most of the strength it is enjoying is due to custom truck boxes being bought by delivery companies and small business owners. Residential housing starts were strong in April and indicate solid future demand for Supreme’s truck boxes, which are used by construction-related workers.

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