CONSOL Ready to Roll

When the natural gas market moves, it can really explode. The front-month futures price for the Henry Hub benchmark traded on the NYMEX has soared from $1.96 per million British thermal units for the expiring June contract on May 26 to $2.48/MMBtu today for July futures, a gain of 26% in less than two weeks.

The approaching summer warmth has played its part, but it likely matters more that the number of active natural gas rigs was down to 81, from 225 a year ago and closer to 400 in mid-2013. The volume of natural gas in storage still roughly 25% above the five-year average for inventories at this time of year. But with U.S. output down slightly from recent records, demand ticking up and the dearth of active rigs pointing to tighter supply ahead, prices have surged, though likely not enough as yet to get many of the mothballed rigs going again.

That’s good news for the natural gas producers in our portfolio, and Best Buys Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG) and EQT (NYSE: EQT) are at new 2016 highs, with year-to-date gains approaching 50%. Another Buy-rated gas driller, Canada’s Peyto Exploration & Development (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF) has broken out to a 21-month peak. All these remain Buys at current price levels.

So does CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX), the coal and natural gas producer that’s returned 12% since we added it to the Aggressive Portfolio on April 20. With its coal mining operations in the black even in the current depressed coal market and the potential of its gas-rich turf barely scratched, CONSOL has perhaps the most leverage within our portfolios to a natural gas recovery. Buy CNX below $19.

We’re now designating CNX the #3 Best Buy, right in between EQT and COG. AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU), the propane distributor that’s rallied to within 10% of its buy limit, remains a Buy below $51, but is no longer a Best Buy.

 

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