CONE Marches On

When I research a new recommendation and agonize over its risks, this is pretty much the dream scenario I have in mind.

CONE Midstream Partners (NYSE: CNNX) joined the Growth Portfolio on April 20 and was immediately designated a Best Buy on the basis of its strong financials and upside from higher natural gas prices.

Less than two months later, our expectations have been met, and then some. CNNX has so far returned 35%, propelled by higher gas prices and another outstanding quarterly report.

On May 5, the partnership reported that its first-quarter distributable cash flow increased 74% year-over-year and 10% sequentially, providing 1.69x coverage for a distribution increased 16% in a year’s time.

Cash flow was so strong it covered not just the distribution but also all of CONE’s capital spending.

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Source: CONE Midstream Partners earnings presentation

It helped, of course, that gathered gas volumes are still surging as wells drilled last year come on line, while capital spending is down sharply as a result of the more recent drilling slowdown by CONE’s sponsors.

But that trend had already been factored into analyst estimates that CONE still managed to trounce.

The low debt and its sponsors’ highly prospective acreage above the Marcellus and Utica shales leave the partnership with a very long growth runway.

But we knew that back in April. So why would we raise the buy limit we set then, just after it’s been exceeded?

The short version is that we believe CONE’s rise is nowhere near done, and that its low leverage and prime location provide plenty of room for profitable growth.

The other part of this is that our buy limits are not estimates of absolute value or targets for a given stretch of time, but rather mileposts that prompt us to review the original thesis and the rating.

The only meaningful change since April is the higher natural gas price, stoked not by some random heat wave but rather by the market’s growing concern about the sufficiency of supply beyond next winter.

That’s no small thing, and in combination with CONE’s excellent if limited operating track record it’s enough for us to raise the bar. Buy Growth pick and #7 Best Buy CNNX below the increased limit of $20.

 

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