Abandon Ship

One of the most underappreciated attributes in investing is the ability to take a loss, to admit that an idea didn’t work out and walk away before it causes more harm. It sounds easy but anyone who’s invested for any length of time knows how hard it is to admit defeat at any given point.

Yet the repeated failure to do so on a timely basis risks a complete loss at investing, as inevitable errors are allowed to compound and multiply. The line between costly stubbornness and contrarian patience is admittedly on the blurry side, which doesn’t make the whole business any easier.

But I’m pretty sure at this point that contrarian patience will not be rewarded any time soon in the tanker space, no matter how much we might wish otherwise.

This was an investment thesis that worked out great at first in the early months of 2015, as dramatically cheaper crude boosted shipments of crude and refined fuels, causing charter rates to rally.

But while the rates have since stayed relatively firm they’ve slid of late as traffic has dropped off, even as a wave of newly built tankers ordered when market first perked up two years ago is about to hit.

In sum, the circumstances in the markets for crude and products tankers are very different than they were when we first made our current recommendations in this space, and as a result we’re pulling out.

Aggressive Portfolio picks Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP), DHT Holdings (NYSE: DHT), EuroNav (NYSE: EURN), Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG) and Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK) are downgraded to Sell.

So is holdover refining play Alon USA Partners (NYSE: ALDW), which also didn’t work out. If you were to point out that we liked all of these names too long, you’d get no argument from us.

As noted, taking losses is hard. Our priority is to do what must be done before moving on to better opportunities.

 

Stock Talk

KTL

KTL

Igor, Understand your point on crude oil tankers. What is your view of the LNG tanker industry as an investment. It would appear that the “war” on coal and the new permitting of U. S. LNG export terminals suggests this sub category be evaluated apart from crude oil tankers. Your thoughts…

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