Crunch Time

If you’re a Williams shareholder and you read nothing else in this issue, read this: you must call your broker before the close of business on Wednesday, June 23 and ask to tender your stock for cash, as opposed to equity or a mix of cash and equity. Doing so will maximize your  merger compensation, while  that doing nothing or selecting one off the two other options will likely leave money on the table. That’s because the cash component of the deal has held its value even as the equity portion of the offer has depreciated alongside Energy Transfer Equity’s (NYSE: ETE) units. In Focus has more about the rapidly approaching climax in saga.

This month’s New Buys features a pair of related MLPs that have already bore the brunt of the current coal slump, taken their medicine in the form of reduced distributions and are poised to capitalize on the coming shutdowns of much less profitable mines by the creditors of their bankrupt rivals. One of them, Alliance Holdings (NASDAQ: AHGP), is down 62% since we called it a sell 16 months ago. At this point, the risk/reward finally looks attractive again.

We’re also made quite a few recommendation changes in Portfolio Update, downgrading two best buys that have outperformed, entirely jettisoning one pick that’s been bought out and another we successfully bottom-fished two years ago, and upgrading four holds to buy.

The MLP sector has stalled following first-quarter earnings reports to digest its hefty spring relief gains. But the results were largely positive and well-received, reassuring investors that domestic production volumes, at least on the turf served by most public MLPs, continue to increase.

And while market gains have slowed of late the healing process continues, with MLPs welcomed back into the much calmer capital markets to sell more equity and debt.

A lot of this, of course, is the direct result of oil’s recent rebound to $50 a barrel, which has buoyed domestic production and increased the value of natural gas liquids, the real lifeblood of the midstream sector. Robert Rapier reviews global oil market trends over the past year, the first installment of a series looking at each energy source in turn, in Sector Spotlight.

The bottom line here, as with MLPs written off and dumped at a fraction of their current worth four months ago, is that the doomsday prophesies extrapolated from the unquestionably awful and scary trading action simply haven’t come true. Global demand for energy continues to grow, had has in fact accelerated in much of the developed world in response to the dramatic discounting.

Supply, on the other hand, is likely to tighten a lot over time at these prices, especially for natural gas.

These trends matter no less to Williams and ETE than to any other midstream company, yet those two have badly lagged the sector over the last year amid all the uncertainty surrounding their merger dispute. One way or another, that distraction will soon go away. I remain cautiously optimistic.

Portfolio Update

  • Alliance Holdings (NASDAQ: AHGP) added to Aggressive portfolio, buy below $23
  • Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ: ARLP) added to Aggressive portfolio, buy below $18
  • AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) downgraded to Hold in Growth portfolio
  • Antero Midstream Partners (NYSE: AM) upgraded to #5 Best Buy below $30 in Growth portfolio
  • Archrock Partners (NASDAQ: APLP) upgraded to Buy below $14 in Growth portfolio
  • Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) upgraded to Buy below $28 in Growth portfolio
  • Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (NYSE: BWP) downgraded to Sell in Aggressive portfolio
  • Columbia Pipeline Group (NYSE: CPGX) downgraded to Sell in Growth portfolio
  • DCP Midstream Partners (NYSE: DPM) upgraded to Buy below $36 in Aggressive portfolio
  • Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) downgraded to Hold in Growth portfolio
  • Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) buy limit increased to $33 in Conservative portfolio
  • Genesis Energy (NYSE: GEL) buy limit increased to $42 in Growth portfolio
  • PBF Logistics (NYSE: PBFX) downgraded to Hold in Growth portfolio

 

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