Weekly–July 16, 2008
Three things are hurting us this week while simultaneously propping up the market.
What you have to ask yourself is this: Are the financial
market’s woes over, and have we now the “all clear” to come back to the general
market?
Our answer: The financial mess is far from cleaned up, and there’s
no way global economies, let alone the
If anything, dire discussions on Capitol Hill featuring Treasury
Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and heated
meetings at the SEC lead us to the conclusion that we’ve only seen the tip of
the iceberg.
The SEC rule change isn’t a change at all; it’s simply a
change of posture on the enforcement of existing rules for trading and shorting
stocks. And get this: It’s only supposed to last for 30 days, hardly a reform
of the market.
It gets worse; the change only impacts the shares of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), Paulson’s old
shop Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and
others that have enough pull to get the SEC to protect their stocks (but not
the whole market).
This is crap. The guys dishing out the off-exchange trades
and facilitating non-compliance with SEC Regulation SHO, which covers the
delivery of shorted shares, are now getting tired of getting whacked by their
own devices. But, like everybody else with enough lobbying clout, they’ve come
crying to the SEC, Treasury and the Fed.
Even if the SEC’s new rule kicks in, it’ll be moot. You
don’t need to short individual banks; you can short an index. No rules are
pending to stop that. Even if there were, there are more and more trades to be
made in exchange-listed as well as over-the-counter swaps and index securities
that are completely hidden from the market. And many of these happen offshore,
away from any rulemaking body.
Although many are singing, “The shorts are dead,” most
serious traders are singing the next phrase, “Long live the shorts.”
Meanwhile, IndyMac
(NYSE: IMB) is toast and National City
(NYSE: NCC) is warming for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and the Office of
the Comptroller of the Currency, along with Wachovia
(NYSE: WB), Fifth Third (NSDQ: FITB)
and a host of other banks getting ready to hand over of the executive washroom
keys to US government employees.
There’s no fix. If anything, we’re only beginning to see the
real woes of the markets and the economy.
On the energy front, petrol isn’t done. Near-term supply and
demand issues might augur a pullback, but the real reason for oil coming down
is that traders are taking profits off the table while US stocks, particularly
financials, are experiencing a bit of short-term reprieve. They’re setting up
to buy back in, and that’s exactly what we need to do.
Use the temporary reprieve in petrol prices to buy our
alternative energy plays. And use the pull-back as a reason to buy our
commodity and currency exchange traded funds (ETF).
And it’s a great time to establish or add to our short
position in SPDR KBW Bank ETF (AMEX:
KBE). The financials may enjoy the rally a bit longer, but there’s no
way the
Current Ideas
Buy pSivida (NSDQ:
PSDV)
The stock is holding its own, trending at about the same
level it was before the Nasdaq launch and the artificial support to keep it
trading. That could have been a sell trigger, but there was no point exiting at
a loss when its Medidur and BrachySil trials are moving along well.
It’s no surprise a small bionano isn’t tearing up the track
right now, but the company is still on track. pSivida is a buy.
Buy QinetiQ (
The stock has dropped below the 200 pence (USD16) mark and
rates a buy here.
Again, higher highs and higher lows form a good technical
sign. That, plus an interview with the company’s CEO in the major industry
magazine Defense News this week, are signs
QinetiQ is in store for some good times moving forward.
This is a good price for a great company. Buy QinetiQ.
Buy Makhteshim-Agan Industries (Tel Aviv:
MAIN.IT, OTC: MAIDF)
We’re down a little this week, but not as much as the
selling in the commodity market might indicate. Even if some parts of the
commodity market sell off, there’s little to suggest, for now, that higher food
prices are going to reverse.
The higher food prices get, the more willing and able
farmers are to pay up for the latest help from the laboratory.
Although other companies may be getting more headlines,
institutions have filed disclosures detailing increased buys of Makhteshim-Agan stock. They’ve figured
out what we’ve known for years, that this is a real player in the agriculture
technology business. Continue to buy Makhteshim-Agan Industries.
Buy SES Solar (OTC:
SESI)
SES Solar is down because petrol is down; there’s nothing
wrong with the company, but the sector trades generally with petrol. The higher
fossil fuel prices get, the more traders like to buy into alternatives.
SES Solar, and companies like it, won’t trade in a straight
line upward. It’s volatile–and its market cap and price point make it even
more so.
We continue to recommend this company, which specializes in
making rooftop arrays and photovoltaic panels as well as connectors used to
hook multiple panels together; this arrangement means less energy is lost from
panel to generator–just the thing to set up solar power systems that work
better. SES Solar is a buy.
Buy Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE)
Although others in the alternative energy space are down
along with petrol, Yingli Green Energy is up about 18 percent.
The China-based company, which designs and manufactures
photovoltaic cells and designs and installs arrays, announced that a project to
expand plant capacity has been completed. The facility is up and running, which
is a good sign for future revenue growth. Yingli
Green Energy is a buy.
Sell AeroVironment (NSDQ: AVAV)
AeroVironment is doing what we expected, and it’s up 28
percent (as of midday July 16) since our original Nov. 13, 2007,
recommendation. That’s not a bad performance considering the broader market’s
numbers during the same timeframe.
The company just inked a deal with US Special Operations
Command that could be worth $200 million over the coming five years. But this
isn’t a service that’s built to wring every last drop out of stocks.
We love AeroVironment for the long term, but in light of the
market’s volatility, this is a good spot to sell for a short-term gain. Sell AeroVironment.
Buy WorldWater & Solar Technologies (OTC:
WWAT)
WorldWater & Solar has been slammed because a small, struggling
company sold a big chunk of WorldWater preferred shares to save itself from
oblivion. That triggered broader selling of the common stock. Panic is an
easily spread commodity in the market these days, especially with small cap
alternative technology companies.
The company is doing everything right and is still worth
some risk capital. Buy WorldWater &
Solar Technologies.
Buy CurrencyShares
Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE)
The
Use this as an opportunity to establish or add to a
position. CurrencyShares Euro Trust is a
buy.
Buy Deutsche Bank
Commodity Index Tracking Fund (AMEX: DBC)
Commodities are indeed in a bubble. Everything–energy, ags,
minerals–is being bought, heavily. Some investors may be taking cash off the
table, but commodities remain viable alternatives to stocks. We see more
upside.
This is an easy way
to get our hands on wheat, corn, metals and even some crude via a Deutsche Bank-run fund that tracks this
stuff. Short of opening up a futures account, this is the easiest way to raw
commodities. Continue to buy Deutsche
Bank Commodity Index Tracking Fund on dips such as the one we’re seeing this
week.
Short SPDR KBW Bank ETF (AMEX: KBE)
Banks are far from fixed, as we’ve heard from the Treasury
Dept and the Fed this week. The KBW Bank Index continues to skid; by shorting
the index via SPDR KBW Bank ETF, we
profit from banks’ demise.
The SEC might want to slow down short-sellers, but its
efforts won’t stop the real market makers from profiting off the takedown of
the worst of the
SPDR KBW Bank ETF targets a collection of banks that make up the KBW bank index. This is an easy way to do what the big guys have been doing, shorting what’s vulnerable, before the market completely catches up. Short SPDR KBW Bank ETF.
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