I have a couple
different kinds of readers. The first group understands how I like to buy
bonds. This type of reader is content to buy and hold, collect the cash along
the way, and now and again sell a position now and then to book a gain and move
to another opportunity.
The second group
reads, pokes around my recommendations, perhaps makes a buy, and then watches
the recommendation move along at a snail’s pace; down one week, up another,
never really doing much. That type of reader begins to wonder, “What am I doing
this for?”
You might fall into
a camp, or you might entertain thoughts of both types. And that’s fine. I would, however, like to convince more of
you to look at bond investing not as some mark of oddity, but as a core part of
your portfolio building.
This is a tough
case. Bonds are boring. They move in odd ways, and they’re harder to check up
on; you rarely hear them mentioned in the financial news. Even when I suggest
the newer, more accessible mini-bonds, many of you think, “Why don’t I just go
back to stocks with big dividends?”
Let’s face it:
Stocks are more exciting. But excitement isn’t working right now. It’s
stimulating to get wound up as the stock market bounces around. All the talking
heads bobble about discussing why the market should rebound or debating whether
the bear is headed back to hibernation.
But that’s not a
reasonable, prudent way to make more money, much less keep the cash you have.
And everybody’s
talking about inflation; you’re living it, too.
The cost of living
is getting out of hand. Even McDonald’s
(NYSE: MCD) is about to change its dollar menu, announcing that prices may be
going up. What’ll it be next, the “dollar-plus menu?” The hamburger king can’t
afford its input goods’ cost hikes.
And with inflation
comes the usual fear that bonds are doomed.
Every investment has
to be considered in light of inflation. It doesn’t matter what you might buy–a
stock, bond or fund. If the returns aren’t outgunning the rate of inflation,
buying power’s eroding.
Let’s dispense with
the usual hindrances. An investment decision boils down to what’s working and
why.
Right Now
Bonds aren’t just
outperforming stocks and many other investments in this downturn; they’re
actually making money. That’s why you should be buying. The point is not to
create material for your next cocktail conversation.
It makes more sense
to buy a collection of bonds that’ll make it possible for you to take time to
enjoy a cocktail party, as opposed to contemplating a part-time job to help
generate more cash.
Our collection of
bonds, bond funds and bond-like investments continue to percolate along, nice
and simple. That’s what you should look for when you make investment choices.
The average return
for our collection of six closed-end international bond funds in 2008 is 9.4
percent. That’s a lot better than the S&P 500’s 14 percent-plus loss for
the year. And the funds are
paying an average yield of more than 7 percent.
40/86 Strategic
Income (NYSE: CFD), AllianceBernstein
Global High Income (NYSE: AWF), BlackRock
Income Opportunity (NYSE: BNA), PIMCO
Strategic Global Government (NYSE: RCS), Templeton Emerging Markets Income (NYSE: TEI) and Western Asset Emerging Market Floating Rate
(NYSE: EFL) are paying well above
inflation and giving you gains to boot.
The buy call should
be an easy one. And they’re now trading at an average discount to net asset
value (NAV) of more than 4 percent. You can the underlying bonds cheaper via
the funds, which pay you well and continue to give you gains.
Our bond-like
preferred shares are giving you similar performance. The four preferreds still
held in the Taxable Portfolio–AES
Trust III 6.75 Percent Series C, CMS Energy 4.5 Percent Series B, Health
Care REIT 7 5/8 Percent Series F and
Mid-America Apartment Properties 8 Percent Series H–have returned an average of 5.4 percent.
The four pay an average quarterly dividend of 7.5 percent.
We haven’t seen
results as impressive in the Non-Taxable Portfolio, but we do enjoy lower
federal taxes and the security of owning government bonds backed by the power
to tax.
The closed-end fund
collection in the Non-Taxable Portfolio, which includes Alliance Bernstein National Municipal Income (NYSE: AFB), BlackRock Municipal Income (NYSE: BLE),
BlackRock Municipal Intermediate
Duration (NYSE: MUI), Nuveen Quality
Income Municipal (NYSE: NQU), Nuveen
Select Maturities Municipal (NYSE: NIM), Western Asset Managed Municipal Portfolio (NYSE: MMU) and Western Asset Municipal High Income
(NYSE: MHF), has generated a year-to-date return of 1.1 percent. The average
dividend yield is about 5 percent, good for a tax-equivalent rate of more than
7 percent.
Beyond Buy and Hold
If you want to be a
bit more active with your own picks, we recommend a collection of mini-bonds in
the Taxable Portfolio that are a bit more volatile.
Our 14 individual
bonds span a wide variety of industries and individual issuers, and they provide
higher yields.
Overall returns are
all over the board, and, even among companies in similar industries, the
variation in 2008 performance is quite wide.
Take, for example,
the telephone operators. Qwest 7.75 Percent Note of 02/15/31
(NYSE: PKH) is down 28 percent, US
Cellular 7.5 Percent Note of 06/15/34 (NYSE: UZV) is flat and Verizon
Communications 7.625 Percent Note of 12/01/30 (NYSE: PJL) is up 4.3 percent.
The key here is to
know when to buy more of which securities and when.
There’s absolutely
nothing wrong with buying the entire collection, including the three telecoms. If
you do, you’ll see a robust, consistent stream of dividends flowing quarter after
quarter. Along the way you’ll also ups and downs for prices.
The experience will
be as exciting as watching paint dry. The longer-term trading history for the
majority of our mini-bonds reveals that they rise and fall but are fairly
steady over several quarters.
However, if you want
to be able to make more of the market’s trading of them, there’s plenty to work
with. Follow the pricing and values of each of the mini-bonds, including the
call price and our “buy up to” targets.
You’ll have two ways
to put more excitement into your own collection. First, buy on the cheap. Let’s
use the telecom example again to illustrate the point.
Qwest 7.75 Percent
Note of 02/15/31, trading at a discount to its $25 call price of 14 percent,
is currently yielding more than 9
percent. It continues to pay right on schedule and, as we’ve seen in the
telecom industry, consolidation is always a possibility. Qwest 7.75
Percent Note of 02/15/31 makes for a great bargain buy at current
levels.
There’s a second point
to make about cashing in on market gyrations. Take Verizon Communications 7.625 Percent Note of
12/01/30; it’s on the upswing, and although we’re still buyers you might
want to take some of your gain and roll it into the cheaper Qwest issue. As Qwest’s mini-bond turns higher, move that
gain into cheaper alternatives, whether it be US Cellular 7.5 Percent Note of 06/15/34 or the Verizon mini-bond.
All but one of our
mini-bond holdings, Tribune Corp 7 Percent Note of 11/15/96
(NYSE: HJS), are rated buys. And given
that the market still treats these issues as if they’re preferred stocks rather
than bonds, the remaining 13 are all are great buys up to prices listed in the
Taxable Portfolio.
AMR Corp 7.875 Percent Note of 07/13/39 (NYSE: AAR) is particularly attractive, trading at a discount of
31 percent and paying 13 percent. The price of petrol is pulling back, and this
is a good way to capitalize on the relief and the improved cash flow for AMR
Corp. The market will also start to appreciate airline companies as their
operating conditions improve. Buy AMR Corp 7.875 Percent Note of 07/13/39
at current prices.
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