Follow the Money

Over the past 12 months consumer-focused exchange-traded funds (ETF) have rallied as expectations of a US consumer recovery pushed these investment vehicles toward their pre-recession highs. But with an anemic US economic recovery, elevated unemployment and households focused on paying off debt, it’s hard to imagine another rally for these funds.

Emerging-market consumers, however, should see their finances continue to improve.

The long history of poverty in many developing nations has made thrift an ingrained virtue. In countries such as India and China, many people set aside as much as a third of their disposable income for retirement, health care and other family obligations. By contrast, the savings rate in many developed economies runs at roughly 5 percent.

That high savings rate and rising commodity prices–the foundation of many emerging economies–have lifted millions out of poverty and swelled the ranks of the middle class. In 2009 middle-class consumer spending in emerging markets totaled almost $7 trillion, and this figure is expected to reach $20 trillion by 2020. That’s more than double expected US consumer spending.

Emerging-market consumers are also more likely to purchase locally produced goods; domestic companies in emerging markets typically capture more than half of their local market share. Large multinationals are likely to control less than a quarter of the market in those countries. .

The US is no longer the market of last resort; a rising consumer class has emerged in most developing nations and will continue to benefit from the wealth generated by exports of increasingly pricey commodities.

EG Shares Dow Jones Emerging Markets Consumer Titans (NYSE: ECON), launched in mid-September, is composed of 30 leading emerging market-based consumer goods and services names. These holdings range from automotive and media firms to cigarette makers and retailers.

Some of the fund’s largest holdings include Naspers (South Africa: NPN, OTC: NPSNY), a media company providing print, online and television content across Africa and South America, and Wal-Mart de Mexico (Mexico: WALMEXV, OTC: WMMVY), the Mexico-based arm of the global retail giant.

The fund boasts several characteristics that will be attractive for US-based investors. The ETF trades all of its portfolio holdings on local exchanges rather than relying on names it can pick up on US exchanges. It also doesn’t hedge its currency exposure, which should hold it in good stead when the value of the US dollar falls.

New ETFs often lack sufficient trading volume to warrant a recommendation, but this offering caught on quickly. Its daily trading volume already averages 150,000 shares, and the fund’s asset base has ballooned to more than $160 million from just over $10 million about five months ago. The fund has staying power and fully captures the emerging-market consumer trend.

What’s New

Global X, a leading issuer of international ETFs, launched Global X FTSE Andean 40 ETF (NYSE: AND) last Thursday, offering US-based investors one-stop access to the 40 largest companies in Chile, Columbia and Peru.

Many in the US immediately think of Brazil when considering South American investments, but Chile and Peru both enjoy a robust commodities trade. The countries boast strong monetary and fiscal policies, moderate inflation and huge surpluses built up during the last commodities boom. As a result, Global X FTSE Andean 40 ETF allocates almost half of assets to Chile, 22 percent to Peru and the remainder to Columbia.

The fund tilts toward materials producers such as Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO) and Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (NYSE: BVN), which make up 28 percent of assets. The fund has a 21 percent exposure to the financials sector and 15 percent of investable assets are allocated to the oil and gas sector.

Global X FTSE Andean 40 ETF should perform well in coming months as recovering demand for commodities drives prices for raw materials higher. Additionally, the deep trading relationship that Chile and Peru enjoy with China will push valuations higher.

Teucrium, the firm that runs the Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE: CORN), also launched a new fund last week. Teucrium Natural Gas (NYSE: NAGS) will track daily changes in a weighted average of the nearest to spot month for Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures contracts in March, April, October and November. The contracts will be weighted at 25 percent in each contract month.

It’s a complicated structure. But it will reduce the effects of contango–in which a futures price rises above the expected future spot price–that has dogged other futures-based funds such as United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE: UNG).

Teucrium Natural Gas is one of the better offerings in the natural gas space. However investors should wait for the fund to build volume before jumping in.

Portfolio Movers

Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF (NYSE: TAO) sold off slightly yesterday as Chinese monetary authorities raised interest rates for the third time since October. The fund’s shares declined by less than 2 percent after China’s central bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.06 percent. The fund’s shares have experienced sharper declines in the past in response to Beijing’s efforts to tame rising inflation.

Higher rates do entail higher borrowing costs. But data released by the government and property developers indicate that Chinese property sales continue apace. Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF remains a buy under 24.

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