Reformed Agenda

 

The US economy is on the mend.

Although some economic data–namely monthly employment reports from the Institute of Supply Management–show chop from month to month, the preponderance of evidence indicates that American consumers are growing more confident. Credit card debt in December rose by 3 percent month on month, the first increase since the start of the financial crisis. Consumer confidence surveys also provide anecdotal evidence of an improving outlook.

Corporate earnings are surging and firms have begun to deploy their cash hoards on mergers and acquisitions and shareholder-friendly measures such as stock buybacks and dividends. Although many would prefer those funds be used to expand payrolls, the fact that cash has begun to flow is an encouraging sign.

The accumulation of positive data prompted several prominent banks to boost their outlook for US economic growth in 2011. Most recently, Deutsche Bank boosted its forecast by a full percentage point to 4.3 percent. As it stands now, the consensus 2011 earnings per share estimate on the S&P 500 is $96.51, topping the 2007 record of $91.47.

That’s a bullish setup for our Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (NYSE: RSP) position in the intermediate-term. The fund has gained 14 percent since we added it to our portfolio in October and there’s more upside to come. If the S&P 500 meets growth expectations, the index could touch 1,800 by the end of the year. That would triple our investment. Even a more reasonable S&P 500 reading of 1,500 would double our money.

Continue buying Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (NYSE: RSP) up to our new price target of 55.

New political realities have also been a boon for equity markets.

Although President Obama made an impassioned call for bipartisanship during the State of the Union address, the 112th Congress’ legislative accomplishments have been limited to a symbolic vote in the House of Representatives to repeal health care reform. That has caused many to bemoan gridlock in Washington. But it’s cheered markets. A divided government reduces the chance of new disruptive legislation, and President Obama has adopted a more centrist stance since the midterm elections. These developments have benefited several of our picks.

Although this exchange-traded fund (ETF) hasn’t rallied as hard as dedicated US funds, iShares S&P Global Healthcare (NYSE: IXJ) has gained more than 2 percent since the new Congress was sworn in. The fund was also buoyed after President Obama in his State of the Union address reached out to Republicans to improve upon the more onerous provisions of the health care law.

The ongoing court battle over the constitutionality of health care reform has also pushed health care funds higher. At issue is the law’s individual mandate which requires every American to carry health insurance or face penalties. Despite several rulings in favor of the individual mandate, it’s likely that the Supreme Court will eventually strike it down as unconstitutional.

With a positive catalyst on the horizon, iShares S&P Global Healthcare remains a buy under 55.

Although we’re not adding it to our Portfolio, here’s an aggressive health care play for adventurous investors.

iShares Dow Jones US Healthcare Provider ETF (NYSE: IHF) focuses on managed care organizations, pharmacy benefit managers, diagnostic firms and hospital operators. The fund has enjoyed a strong run as the health care debate has rekindled. Insurers such as UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH), WellPoint (NYSE: WLP) and Aetna (NYSE: AET) make up more than a third of the fund’s portfolio; these names should benefit in the event that President Obama’s health care law is struck down in the courts.

iShares Dow Jones US Healthcare Provider ETF rates a buy under 65 for aggressive investors.

Market Vectors Nuclear Energy (NYSE: NLR) has generated strong returns since Republicans gained control of the US House of Representatives, returning almost 24 percent over our holding period. The fund has returned 6.5 percent since President Obama in his State of the Union speech cited the nuclear energy industry as a critical to meeting our nation’s energy needs.

With plenty of upside to come, continue buying Market Vectors Nuclear Energy up to 30.

On a non-political note, look for movement in SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF (NYE: KRE).

The fund has posted a gain of almost 20 percent since end-November, contributing to a return of about 2 percent over our holding period. However, fourth-quarter results at regional banks suggest the group is enjoying a strong earnings rebound. Consumers have begun to borrow again and a stabilizing housing market has allowed these lenders to reduce their loan-loss reserves.

Improving credit quality and positive loan growth trends recently prompted Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services to bump its 12-month outlook for diversified banks to “positive.” While most of SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF’s holdings don’t fall into the diversified bank classification, they will benefit from an improving outlook for the broad financial sector.

The regional banking sector will likely face higher compliance costs as various provisions of last year’s financial sector reform are phased in. But the market has already priced in the effects of these higher costs.

Buy SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF up to 31.

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