ETFs Profit from Corporate Insiders

Longtime investors pay close attention to the patterns of buying and selling of a company’s stock by its corporate insiders. That’s because no one knows the true state of a company better than its named executives and its board of directors. Indeed, numerous academic studies have shown that corporate insiders outperform the market over the long term when trading shares of their company’s stock.

Corporate insiders are required to report any changes in their ownership stakes to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) via Form 4 by the end of the second day after shares are purchased or sold. Net insider buying is generally a bullish sign, while net selling is usually an indication that something could be amiss at the company.

It’s important to distinguish legal insider trading from the public’s association of that term with the well-publicized cases in which investors and executives used insider information to trade a company’s shares in a criminal manner. As long as insiders aren’t aware of any material, non-public information, they’re free to trade in their company’s shares just like any investor. But while they might not be trading on material, non-public information, insiders’ intimate knowledge of their firms still gives them a greater feel for its future prospects than outside investors.

Direxion Shares introduced two new exchange-traded funds (ETF) last week that utilize publicly available information on insider transactions for the benefit of investors.

Direxion All Cap Insider Sentiment Shares (NYSE: KNOW) and Direxion Large Cap Insider Sentiment Shares (NYSE: INSD) use quantitative screens to identify companies which have experienced strong insider buying, are rated favorably by analysts and aren’t reliant upon aggressive accounting practices.

Direxion All Cap Insider Sentiment Shares tracks a subset of 100 of the 1500 stocks in the S&P 1500, while Direxion Large Cap Insider Sentiment Shares tracks a subset of 100 of the S&P 500 names.

Both ETFs use a hybrid weighting system with the top 50 positions being exponentially weighted, while the bottom 50 are equally weighted. Each ETF charges an annual expense ratio of 0.65 percent.

Deutsche Bank and PowerShares teamed up to launch two exchange-traded notes (ETN): PowerShares DB US Inflation ETN (NYSE: INFL) and PowerShares DB US Deflation ETN (NYSE: DEFL). The ETNs track the spread between 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and 10-Year Treasuries, also known as the break-even rate. PowerShares DB US Inflation ETN achieves this with a long position in TIPS and a short position in Treasuries, while PowerShares DB US Deflation ETN does the opposite. When the spread widens, expectations for future inflation are rising and that pushes the inflation ETN higher. When spreads are narrowing, inflation expectations are falling and the deflation ETN will outperform.

Each ETN charges an annual expense ratio of 0.75 percent.

Global X Management had a busy week with the launch of three new ETFs.

Global X NASDAQ 500 ETF (NSDQ: QQQV) and Global X NASDAQ 400 Mid Cap ETF (NSDQ: QQQM) both have heavy allocations toward the technology sector, with tech receiving a 60 percent weighting in the former and a 37 percent weighting in the latter.

Global X NASDAQ 500 ETF tracks the 500 largest foreign and domestic non-financial stocks traded on the Nasdaq, while Global X NASDAQ 400 Mid Cap ETF tracks the Nasdaq’s top 400 mid-cap foreign and domestic non-financial stocks. The exclusion of financial stocks from ETF portfolios has become a popular strategy in the wake of the financial crisis.

Each fund will charge an annual expense ratio of 0.48 percent.

Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) was by far the gutsiest launch of the past week.

The ETF tracks the 20 largest companies traded in Athens. Perhaps this ETF was designed to appeal to those investors hoping to capitalize on the devastation Greece’s role in the European-sovereign debt crisis has wrought upon its domestic equity market.

But we suspect Greek stocks are a value trap, and find the ETF’s 35 percent weighting in the financial sector particularly worrisome. In the event of a massive recapitalization of the European banking system, Greek banks will likely see their shareholders wiped out. After financials, the next largest sector weightings are industrials at 22 percent of assets and consumer discretionary at 18 percent. The ETF’s sizable stake in consumer-oriented names could also be problematic for potential investors, particularly because of austerity measures the Greek government has imposed. It will likely be some time before Greek consumers are in the mood to spend again.

Though this ETF is not for the faint of heart, it could be an interesting trading vehicle for a few strong-willed souls, particularly since it can be shorted. But most investors should steer clear of this ETF for now.

The ETF charges a 0.69 percent annual expense ratio.

Portfolio Roundup

While we had little in the way of portfolio specific news recently, our Global ETF Profits Model Portfolio continued its streak of underperformance. Last week, its overall value declined by 3.9 percent, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.6 percent and the MSCI EAFE shed 3.1 percent.

Our positions in iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (NYSE: IEI) and Market Vectors Intermediate Municipal ETF (NYSE: ITM) were the only two positions in positive territory, with gains of 0.4 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. Even gold declined last week, with SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) falling by 5.8 percent.

However, we believe there will be an improvement in performance in the coming months. For the past two weeks, small-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P Small-Cap 600 Index, have been outperforming both large-cap and mid-cap stocks. While still in the red–the index is down by 3.5 percent year-to-date–a relative outperformance by small-caps is an excellent indicator that equities may be about to take a turn for the better.

The American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey also recently broke into bullish territory, but just barely. The most recently available data showed that just over 40 percent of respondents were bullish, 33.6 percent were bearish, and 26 percent were neutral. While stocks may not produce staggering gains in the near term, that’s still the most optimistic reading on the index in months.

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