The Dividend Champions: Portfolio Update

By the time you read this, the result of the “Brexit” vote may already be known. Should British voters choose to leave the European Union, a period of considerable uncertainty lies ahead, as a complex web of contractual relationships between the U.K. and the E.U. will have to be untangled or renegotiated. This will take time and the outcomes are highly uncertain.

Canada’s main trading partner is the U.S., a relationship that accounts for more than $600 billion worth of trade annually. By comparison, the country’s trade with the U.K. is relatively small, amounting to just $22 billion annually.

Over the past seven years, Canada has negotiated an extensive free-trade agreement with the E.U. (including the U.K.), which accounts for about $86 billion of annual bilateral trade. Should the U.K. leave the E.U., a separate trade deal between Canada and the U.K. will have to be negotiated. But even if the Brexit becomes reality, we do not see this as a major problem for most Canadian companies.

The Dividend Champions Portfolio currently holds more than 10% in cash. If the market takes a dive following the outcome of the referendum, we’ll be ready to deploy some of that cash toward our favorite stocks. Cineplex (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF) and Fortis (TSX: FTS, OTC: FRTSF) are two names that we would like to buy at lower prices.

In other news, the current depressed state of the railroad transport industry was again brought to the fore on Tuesday when Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (TSX: CP, NYSE: CP) reduced its revenue and profit outlook for the second quarter of 2016. Lower-than-expected volumes in bulk commodities, the wildfires in Alberta, and the stronger Canadian dollar were offered as reasons for the weaker projections.

CP Rail’s share price dropped 2.3% on the day, but investors also read the announcement as bad news for other North American railroads, including Dividend Champions holding Canadian National Railway Co. (TSX: CNR, NYSE: CNI).

We have previously expressed similar concerns about CN Rail and concluded that the company will struggle to maintain and grow profits in a declining freight-volume environment. To recap: Freight volumes at CN Rail are down 13% so far this quarter compared to a year ago. Revenue-ton miles, which measure the weight of freight shipped and the distance shipped, are down by 10% this quarter.

Canadian National is a world-class operator that has considerable pricing power. To its credit, management took action to reduce operating costs in the early stages of the downturn. However, the extent of the volume declines is considerable, and we won’t be surprised to see rather poor second-quarter results.

Consequently, we recently lowered our fair-value estimate for CN Rail to C$77, or US$61, and downgraded the stock to Hold.

The date for the InnVest REIT (TSX: INN-U; OTC: IVRVF) shareholder vote on the takeover proposal from Bluesky Hotels is set for June 28.

InnVest’s board is recommending that unitholders accept the cash offer of C$7.25 per unit. Management and major shareholders representing 29% of the outstanding units have also pledged their support for the transaction. Two key proxy advisory firms, Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. and Glass Lewis & Co., have now also recommended that InnVest’s unitholders vote for the takeover proposal.

Though unitholders will continue to receive the monthly distribution of C$0.033 per unit through the transaction’s completion, we would advise the sale of units anytime the REIT trades above C$7 per unit. The possibility of a higher third-party offer seems unlikely, so it’s best to book gains now rather than risk the deal coming undone later, even if that risk is a small one.

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