Was Monday’s 17% jump in Energy Transfer Equity’s (NYSE: ETE) unit price justified? We obviously think so, based on our $15 price target and #1 Best Buy rating for ETE.

But was it justified by the developments in the Delaware court where Energy Transfer is defending itself against an attempt by Williams to force the merger it was promised? That’s a harder question, but one that should be answered as soon as Friday, June 24, the date by which the judge hearing the case has promised a ruling barring a compromise agreement.

For now, the market’s working hypothesis that Energy Transfer has likely dodged a bullet seems sound. By focusing on the issue of whether Energy Transfer’s advisers raised the tax concern currently blocking the merger in good faith, the judge has set a high evidentiary bar for Williams to clear in proving otherwise.

While that does not guarantee that Energy Transfer can walk away from its merger bid without penalty, it certainly improves its leverage in any last-minute talks ahead of a ruling.

For all that, at $14.35 ETE is up all of 2% since June 8, so it’s not as it’s broken out into uncharted territory. In fact, if it were to walk away from this case scot-free or agree to a merger on more advantageous terms, it’s entirely plausible that the unit price would move significantly higher.

As for Williams, it continues to trade within its recent range, and at a price at which the downside seems modest relative to a potential upside if the merger does proceed, or on a standalone basis (over admittedly a much longer timeframe) if it doesn’t. Williams remains a Buy below 23 in an Aggressive Portfolio, a placement that reflects its high near-term risk.

While Energy Transfer’s CEO has complained repeatedly that the downturn since the deal was struck makes the original deal terms uneconomical, it’s worth noting that the prices of crude as well as natural gas are higher today that they were on Sept. 28 when the merger agreement was announced.

It’s true that both companies’ equity has been substantially devalued. But in terms of U.S. midstream fundamentals things have arguably improved, and even Energy Transfer said its gathered gas volumes are continuing to grow.

That leaves room for both a last-minute win-win merger deal or alternately for each party to succeed on its own once they can get past these distractions. One way or another, we’re getting ever closer to resolving the current mess. And that’s a good thing.