Keep Calm and Buy BP

It’s been a long time since BP (NYSE: BP) stood for British Petroleum.

The global oil major is still based in London, of course, and UK nationals account for some 40% of its shareholder base.

But the wellsprings of its cash flow originate mostly elsewhere.  The North Sea and the rest of Europe accounted for just 7% of the hydrocarbons BP pumped out during the most recent quarter. The U.S. provided 28% of the total, mostly from the Gulf of Mexico.

Given those numbers, the possibility that the UK might leave the European Union in the wake of last week’s referendum is no threat to BP’s business operations. It is, however, an opportunity to pick up shares (and the vast associated proved reserves) at a significant discount to rivals, and at a time when oil prices have found firmer footing amid signs that global supply has begun to tighten.

BP’s U.S. traded ADRs (American depositary receipts) hit a six-month high last week just before the Brexit vote shock rocked financial markets. After sliding 8% over the next two days they clawed back half that loss on Tuesday and remain attractively priced at a current annualized yield of 7.2%.    

Chief Investment Strategist Robert Rapier most recently revisited the case for BP based on its discounted reserves in May.

That was in the wake of first-quarter results that registered a year-over-year improvement in the cash flow despite a dramatic decline in realized oil and gas prices.

That was driven by a dramatic decline in production costs and in cash outlays for dividends, as more shareholders opted to be compensated in additional stock. Management hopes operating cash flow will cover capital spending and dividend outlays by next year even if the price of oil doesn’t rise much from current levels, The company also plans to continue raising billions from asset sales to offset payments for the Gulf oil spill.

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Source: BP presentation

Despite once more reducing its capital spending plans,  BP plans to bring online 500,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day of new production over the next two years.

We’re upgrading Conservative Portfolio recommendation BP to a Buy below $40.

 

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