Outlook for the Second Quarter

Company results for the second quarter of 2016 will start to roll in a few weeks from now. We do not profess to have insights into any potential major surprises, either positive or negative, but we do wish to highlight some of the macro events that may influence specific company results.

The extensive wildfires in Alberta disrupted oil production for more than a month, removing more than one million barrels of daily production, or 25% of Canadian production from the market.

Oil producers affected by the fires in the Fort McMurray area include Dividend Champions holding Suncor (TSX: SU, NYSE: SU), which suspended operations at its Firebag, Base Plant and MacKay River facilities and lost about 35 days of production at its own facilities and 40 days at its subsidiary, Syncrude. With the bulk of Suncor’s oil production coming from the oil sands, the second quarter results will reflect the negative impact.

Another negative for Suncor will be the price of oil, which was about 20% lower on average during the quarter compared to the same quarter in 2015. Despite an expected sharp drop in quarterly profits, we believe that the dividend will be maintained at a level slightly above the same quarter last year.

We are less concerned about the impact of the fires on the pipeline companies, as they mostly get paid for the contracted capacity irrespective of whether their clients utilize the capacity. Inter Pipeline (TSX:IPL, OTC:IPPLF) and TransCanada Corporation (TSX:TRP, NYSE:TRP) fall in this category.

Another company that may disappoint investors during the second quarter is Canadian National Railways (TSX:CNR, NYSE:CNI), where quarterly freight volumes have declined by 12% compared to a year ago. While not the only driver of profits, the company will struggle to increase profits with such sharp declines in freight volumes.

Here is a table that indicates the expected profit announcement dates and the expected dividend for our Dividend Champions. Please note that not all the announcement dates have been confirmed by the companies and are therefore subject to change.dividned payments table p11

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