Letting the Data Lead the Way

One of the features of this era of historically low interest rates is how disconnected the financial markets have become from the real economy.

As each new economic disruption or bout of market turmoil forces the world’s central banks to keep the monetary spigots open, it’s clear that rates will remain lower for longer. And this means that all the liquidity sloshing about will continue to inflate financial markets.

In Canada, for instance, the economy is projected to grow just 1.4% this year, a moderate rebound from last year’s deceleration to 1.1%. Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index trades just 8.3% below its all-time high, set back in September 2014 just prior to crude oil’s collapse.

At current levels, the country’s stock market trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 22.1, which is significantly above its trailing 10-year average of 17.9.

Of course, such valuations could mean that the eternally anxious, but ultimately optimistic market expects better days ahead.

Based on analyst forecasts that could indeed be the case. Bay Street estimates show strong earnings per share growth of about 17.3% annually over the next three years on moderate sales growth of 4.5% annually.

On the other hand, economists forecast that Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will climb to just 2.3% by 2018. That’s about two-tenths of a percentage point below the minimum threshold the Bank of Canada has previously identified as necessary for the economy to be firing on all cylinders.

But even if stocks continue to race ahead of the real economy, we still think that the real economy provides important information for identifying new investment themes or clarifying existing ones.

We recently had a spate of important economic releases from Statistics Canada (StatCan), including April GDP, international trade for May, and June employment. None of the latest data suggest gathering momentum for the Canadian economy, so we’re going to focus on their breakdowns by sector instead.

Goods and Services

Among the industries showing the strongest year-over-year growth in the April GDP report are retail (+4.2%) and transportation (+3.6%).

There are a few holdings in the Dividend Champions Portfolio that fit these themes. On the retail side, we have North West Co. Inc. (TSX: NWC, OTC: NWTUF), which operates grocery and general merchandise stores in both Canada (62% of operating income) and overseas (38% of operating income).

Analysts forecast fiscal-year 2017 (ending Jan. 31, 2018) adjusted earnings per share will grow 14%, to C$1.63, on sales growth of 4%, to C$1.9 billion. North West has increased its dividend by 5.3% annually over the past five years, and analysts project the payout will rise a further 5% over the next year. The stock currently yields 4.2%.

And there are two Dividend Champions that operate in the transportation sector. Hold-rated Canadian National Railway Co. (TSX: CNR, NYSE: CNI) has gotten a bit ahead of itself, so let’s take a look at undervalued WestJet Airlines Ltd. (TSX: WJA, OTC: WJAVF) instead.

Like other carriers, WestJet is dealing with a supremely challenging operating environment, especially given weakness in Canada’s energy-producing regions, which have been hit hard by the oil shock.

Consequently, analysts forecast adjusted earnings per share will decline by nearly 21% this year, to C$2.31, even though revenue is expected to eke out growth of 0.2%, to C$4.04 billion. A significant earnings recovery is expected by 2018.

Though the stock only yields 2.6%, WestJet has aggressively grown its dividend over the past five years, with its annual payout nearly tripling during that time, to C$0.56.

Detroit’s Canadian Cousin

In terms of trade, Canada’s auto sector continues to pick up the slack left by the energy crash. In fact, motor vehicles and parts constitute the country’s single biggest export category by far at present, up 10.7% year over year, to C$7.8 billion in May, accounting for about 19% of total exports by value.

Legacy Portfolio holding Magna International (TSX: MG, NYSE: MGA), which is the largest auto-parts supplier in North America and the third-largest in the world, does just about everything but make cars under its own brand. Magna’s operations are well diversified geographically, with Canada accounting for less than 19% of revenue.

The company has managed to grow earnings 18.5% annually over the past five years, and analysts expect more strong growth ahead. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast to climb almost 14% this year, to US$5.11, on revenue growth of 12.4%, to US$36.1 billion.

And while the stock’s yield is a relatively modest 2.6%, Magna has been growing its dividend at a positively torrid pace: Its annual payout has quintupled since 2010, to US$1 per share.

Box-Office Boom

The industries that StatCan lumps into its information, culture and recreation sector account for a relatively small proportion of Canada’s labor market (about 5.5% of the country’s service sector). But this category is enjoying the strongest hiring by far among the country’s various sectors, with payrolls up 5.9% year over year.

That means Cineplex Inc. (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPGFX), Canada’s top movie exhibitor, was a timely addition to the Dividend Champions Portfolio last month. The company boasts a commanding 80% market share in Canada, with the number of annual visits to its theaters roughly double the country’s population.

Analysts forecast adjusted earnings per share will jump nearly 26% this year, to C$1.95, on revenue growth of almost 11%, to C$1.5 billion.

Shares of the C$3.3 billion company currently yield 2.5%.

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