Great Balls of Fire

We’ve come so very far this year that it’s worth recalling what a rocky trip it’s been amid the current outbreak of optimism.

Six months and a day ago, the Alerian MLP Index was down 26% in two weeks and still three weeks shy of its ultimate panic-stricken low.

And in the six months since, the Alerian has roared back a startling 52%, as more-or-less predicted here back then.

Impressive as that is, it might be even more relevant to note that the Alerian held its ground over the last six weeks while the price of crude oil slid 12%. MLP investors have regained the luxury of taking the long view again and are rightly viewing U.S. shales as indispensable over a longer time frame.

The resulting capital gains have lowered the Alerian’s indicative annual yield from the 11% no-brainer of six months ago to 7.1% today, a level that does require some thought.

Seven percent isn’t exactly a sign of the apocalypse: the Alerian yielded about that in early 2010, yet returned 36% that year on top of the 76% rebound in 2009. But let’s be honest: 7% isn’t the same sort of great omen as an Alerian yield in the double digits.

We remain selective and patient in our Buy recommendations, focusing primarily on growth opportunities tied to the expected increases in natural gas prices in the coming years.

I could have used more caution as well as selectivity in tanker picks that badly weighed on our first-half results, tallied in this month’s In Focus feature.

But the recommendations added to portfolios this year have performed very well so far. We hope that trend continues with BP (NYSE: BP), a supermajor leveraged to higher oil and gas prices that’s a much safer bet than the handful of upstream MLPs that haven’t yet filed for bankruptcy protection. See New Buys for more on this opportunity.

Finally, the new Portfolio Update is devoted to the board split at Williams (NYSE: WMB), which hasn’t stopped that stock from playing catch up of late to the industry rally it mostly missed.

We’d likely need to see significantly higher energy prices to get the entire midstream sector running once again. One day in a not-too-distant future we will, and it will.

 

Stock Talk

Guest

Guest

Still kind of upsetting to have gotten stopped out of MLPL in February because that one would have rebounded nicely while still having a 15% yield.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I’m not sure that this will cheer you up, but they came out with a replacement one a week later, and I was honestly too busy with real news to pick it up on it until Robert noted it recently. It’s done pretty well: http://etracs.ubs.com/product/detail/index/ussymbol/MLPQ

Guest

Guest

Yes I’ve seen that one. Volume is so low that it isn’t even worth building a position imo. Sticking to ETE.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Oh agreed, and I’m certainly not suggesting buying that at this time.

Richard Bryan

Richard Bryan

RE: BEP
Last July I received a distribution but not this July. Has my broker made a mistake?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Are you asking about BP or BEP, which is Brookfield Renewable Partners?

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