The Dividend Champions: Portfolio Update

WestJet Airlines Ltd. (TSX: WJA, OTC: WJAVF) announced a record load factor for June and a strong increase in passengers carried during the month.

The 80.8% second-quarter load factor was also considerably better than the same quarter last year, despite a 6.9% increase in capacity. The airline carried a record 5.3 million passengers during the second quarter, 7% more than the previous year. And revenue passenger miles (traffic) also increased by 10.6% during the quarter.

The improvement in operating metrics was partly the result of the introduction of new non-stop service between London (Gatwick) and six Canadian cities in May.

However, the results for the second quarter, which will be announced on July 26, are still expected to be rather dismal, as management forecasts revenue per average seat mile to decline by about 5.75% due to increased competition and price discounting.

WestJet shares trade at an attractive valuation, with a 12 month forward EV/EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization) ratio of 3.6 times and a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 times. The stock currently yields 2.5%, and we estimate its fair value at C$26, or US$20.

Second-quarter results for Canadian companies are about to start rolling in over the next few days. Here are some notes regarding select Dividend Champions in advance of their earnings releases:

The extensive wildfires in Alberta disrupted oil production for over a month, removing more than 1 million barrels of daily production, or 25% of total Canadian production, from the market.

Oil producers affected by the fires in the Fort McMurray area include Dividend Champions holding Suncor (TSX: SU, NYSE: SU), which suspended operations at its Firebag, Base Plant and MacKay River facilities, losing about 35 days of production at its own facilities and 40 days at its subsidiary, Syncrude. With the bulk of Suncor’s oil production coming from the oil sands, second-quarter results will reflect the negative impact.

Another negative for Suncor will be the price of oil, which was on average down about 20% year over year. Despite the expected sharp drop in quarterly profits, we believe that Suncor will maintain its dividend at the current level, which is slightly higher than a year ago.

We are less concerned about the impact of the fires on our pipeline companies since they mostly get paid for contracted capacity regardless of whether their clients utilize that capacity. Inter Pipeline (TSX: IPL, OTC: IPPLF) and TransCanada Corp. (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP) fall in this category.

Another company that could disappoint investors is Canadian National Railway (TSX: CNR, NYSE: CNI), whose freight volumes have declined by 12% compared to a year ago. Though freight volumes are not the only driver of profits, the company will struggle to grow earnings when volumes are down so sharply.

Below is a table that lists the dates for each Dividend Champion’s earnings announcement along with our expectation for the dividend. The companies highlighted in yellow are expected to report before the end of July. Please note that some of the dates listed below are estimates based on the timing of prior-year releases and are therefore subject to change.

2016-07-21-MLM

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