Down But Hardly Out at BP

Since we’re recently recommended buying shares of BP (NYSE: BP), it’s worth updating what’s changed based on the second-quarter results it reported this morning.

160726ESWbp1

Source: BP’s Q2 earnings presentation

In short, not much. Energy prices and refining margins that perked up notably in the second quarter have since taken a turn for the worse, dimming the outlook for the second half of the year. At least the upstream operations stopped being a cash flow drain, boosting the company’s preferred measure of underlying profitability (excluding Gulf spill costs and inventory effects) back into the black for its production group.

The harsh operating environment has reinforced BP’s commitment to cost cuts. Capital spending is now expected to total $15 billion to $17 billion this year depending on energy prices, down from the $17 billion target announced six months ago.

In the absence of much near-term fundamental news, BP is advertising its newfound confidence that its Gulf oil spill costs will be contained at $61.6 billion, of which $22.2 billion has yet to be paid out.

We remain high on BP not so much for its debt-financed dividend as for its leverage to higher oil and fuel prices in the coming years as expensive new production projects come online.

160726ESWbp2

Source: BP’s Q2 earnings presentation

The market took the results in stride: the share price is down less than 1% on the day and 6% from the seven-month high set two weeks ago. The recent trading trend remains constructive. Buy Growth pick BP below $42.

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account