The Dividend Champions: Portfolio Update

2016-07-28-CNRCanadian National Railway (TSX: CNR, NYSE: CNI) reported that second-quarter earnings per share declined 4% year over year, as depressed freight volumes took their toll. Nevertheless, this year’s dividend is about 20% higher than last year.

Revenues declined 9%, as a 2% increase in prices was not enough to offset a 12% drop in carload volumes. Commodity-related cargo—including crude, coal, metals and grain—declined, while intermodal was flat and forest products fared better.

Operating expenses, down by 12%, were extremely well contained given such a weak operating environment. All the main expense categories, including labour and fuel, fell by substantial margins as the company tightened cost controls. The key operating ratio (operating expenses as a portion of revenues) declined to 54.5%, a second-quarter record low.

Management maintained its full-year guidance of flat earnings per share for the full year, but now believes that second-quarter volumes could represent a trough for the current cycle. The balance sheet remains solid, and cash flows are excellent.

CNR continues to enjoy a premium valuation relative to its North American peers. The stock currently yields 1.8%, and we estimate its fair value at C$80, or US$61.

2016-07-28-ChoiceChoice Properties REIT (TSX: CHP-U; OTC: PPRQF), which primarily serves as the landlord to top Canadian food retailer Loblaw, delivered another quarter of steady progress.

Funds from operations per unit increased by 4%, while management boosted the monthly distribution per unit by 6%.

Rental revenue was up by 8%, as occupancy increased marginally to 98.8% and new developments came on stream.

Operating expenses also increased by 8%, with the result that net operating income rose 8%.

Choice’s units currently yield 4.7%, and the REIT’s valuation remains attractive given the low interest rate environment.

2016-07-28-MLM-WestJet

WestJet Airlines Ltd. (TSX: WJA, NYSE: WJAVF) reported that second-quarter earnings per share dropped 42% year over year. However, it should be noted that the company produced record results in last year’s quarter, which made for a tough comparable.

Greater seat capacity, more passengers, and a higher load factor helped push revenue slightly higher. However, higher operating costs and pricing pressures resulted in lower profit margins.

The outlook for the rest of the year seems to be somewhat better, with consensus estimates indicating a 7% decline in earnings per share for the full year and a decent bounce in 2017.

If the forecasts prove correct, then the company will still be generating its second-highest annual profit this year. The dividend may increase marginally this year, but should resume its stronger growth path in 2017.

With a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3 times, WestJet’s valuation remains attractive. The stock currently yields 2.5%, and we estimate its fair value at C$26, or US$20.

Earnings Checklist

The table below lists the date for each Dividend Champion’s earnings announcement along with our expectation for the dividend. The companies highlighted in yellow are expected to report before the end of July, while green indicates that the company has already reported results. Please note that some of the dates listed below are estimates based on the timing of prior-year releases and are therefore subject to change.

2016-07-28-MLM-Mega Chart

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