Second Quarter Results: So Far So Good

Company results for the second quarter of calendar 2016 are starting to roll in. Despite some poor profit numbers in selected cases, the dividends remain on a positive track. Here are the summaries of the early results from our Dividend Champions.

Canadian National Railway (TSX: CNR, NYSE: CNI) reported lower second-quarter 2016 profits as the strain of depressed freight volumes took its toll. Earnings per share fell 4%, but the dividend was increased by 20% compared to last year.

Management maintained its guidance of an unchanged earnings per share for the full year and now expects that the Q2 volumes would represent a trough in the current cycle. The balance sheet remains solid and the cash flow excellent.

The valuation for the stock remains full, at a premium compared to its North American peers. We estimate the fair value of the stock at C$80 or US$61 with a dividend yield of 1.8%.

Choice Properties REIT (TSX: CHP-U; OTC: PPRQF), the landlord predominantly to Loblaw, a top Canadian food retailer, delivered another round of steady progress. Funds from operations per unit increased by 4% in the second quarter while the distribution per unit was lifted by 6% compared to a year ago.

In the ongoing low-interest-rate environment, the valuation remains reasonably attractive with a distribution yield of 4.7% and a pay-out ratio of 82%.

Fortis Inc. (TSX:FTS, OTC:FRTSF) reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share 5% higher than the same period last year. The dividend was raised by 12% compared to last year.

Operating results from the various divisions were a mixed bag, with the electrical utility Fortis Alberta struggling while Fortis BC and U.S.-based UNS steamed ahead.

A key focus for Fortis is the completion of the US$11.3 billion acquisition of ITC, the U.S. Midwest transmission business. Financing arrangements for the transaction received a major boost with the sale of a 19.9% interest to the Singapore Wealth Fund for US$1.2 billion. The regulatory review process is underway and the final closing of the transaction is expected in late 2016. Management expects the transaction to make a positive contribution to earnings per share in the first full year of operation.

The company intends to grow its dividend by 6% per year for the foreseeable future, which is supported, in our view, by strong cash flow and a reasonably leveraged balance sheet. We estimate the fair value at C$46 or US$35 with a dividend yield of 3.7%.

The full extent of the damage caused by the Fort McMurray wildfires was evident in the second quarter results of Suncor Energy (TSX: SU, NYSE: SU). Operating cash flow per share dropped 61% below the level achieved in the same quarter last year. Unsurprisingly, the dividend was unchanged from last year.

Production facility shut-ins reduced oil sands production to 213,000 barrels per day, 52% below the level achieved in the same quarter last year. As of mid-July, all oil sands operations were back to full production. In addition to the production loss, $50 million of costs were incurred to evacuate staff and restart operations.

This quarter is best forgotten as, we hope, a never-to-be-repeated event. We are holding Suncor in the Dividend Champions portfolio for its ability to sustain its dividend during commodity down cycles. This ability is now severely tested, but we remain confident that better days will come again for the company as energy prices recover. The dividend yield is currently 3.3% with prospects for growth largely dependent on energy prices.

 TransCanada Corp. (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP), reported a 7% decline in adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter of the 2016 financial year. The dividend was 8.7% higher than a year ago.

The natural gas pipelines division increased adjusted EBITDA profits by 10%, liquid pipelines was 11% lower while profit in the volatile energy division dropped by 12%. Overall the EBITDA profit was flat compared to the same quarter last year. This could be described as a reasonable result, although the large adjustments made by management in the presentation of the results when compared to the accounting standards make the numbers less robust.

The share price had a good run over the past few months, and the valuation discount to its peers has now closed. We estimate the fair value at C$59 per share or US$45. The well-covered dividend yield is still reasonably attractive at 3.7%, especially taking into account management’s promise of 8%-10% annual growth.

Thomson Reuters (TSX: TRI, NYSE: TRI) delivered a reasonable second quarter result courtesy of a reduced tax rate that helped the bottom line. Adjusted earnings per share increased by 11% and the dividend per share was raised by 2%.

The US$3.6-billion disposal of the Intellectual Property and Science Division, now expected to close in the second half of 2016, will result in a profit dilution. But management expects to plug the hole partially with share buybacks and debt reductions.

The company is trading at a slight discount to its international peers and an attractive and well-covered dividend yield of 3.2%. We estimate the fair value at C$54 or US$41.

RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF) reported second-quarter operating funds from operation per unit (a measure of income adjusted for capital or transactional items such as property sales) that were 2.9% lower than last year. Distributions per unit was unchanged.

The key reason for the profit decline was the profit gap left by the sale of the U.S portfolio. It will take time before this gap is filled but we note that Riocan has more than $1.1 billion worth of property acquisitions since September 2015, including a recent $352 million purchase of a 50% interest in four properties already partly owned by the REIT.

Net operating income for the Canadian portfolio increased by 6.1% in the quarter and same property net operating income increased by 0.8% compared to the previous year. This reasonably reflects the operating performance of the portfolio currently owned by Riocan.

RioCan currently has an attractive distribution yield of 4.9%, though we remain concerned about the lack of dividend growth. However, the REIT owns a high-quality portfolio concentrated in the core urban areas of Canada and the development and intensification of existing properties will substantially boost profits over the next few years. We will remain shareholders in the Dividend Champions portfolio for now.

WestJet Airlines Ltd. (TSX: WJA, NYSE: WJAVF) delivered lower second-quarter profits compared to an all-time record in the second quarter of last year. Earnings per share declined by 42% while the dividend was kept unchanged.

The outlook for the rest of the year seems to be somewhat better, with consensus estimates indicating a 7% decline in earnings per share for the full year and a decent bounce in 2017.

The business valuation remains undemanding, with the 2016 price to earnings ratio at 8.3 times and a dividend yield of 2.5%. We estimate the fair value at C$26 or US20.

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account