No Letup at Energy Transfer

When going with the flow, any stroke will do. We’ve seen overly leveraged MLPs like Plains All American (NYSE: PAA) and Williams (NYSE: WMB) increase in value after pledging to curb distributions.

Yet Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) and its main operating affiliate Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) are also hugging 2016 highs after refusing to follow that playbook.

“I’ve heard some nonsense from out there that people think we’re going to cut [the distribution at ETE] and that ain’t happening,” CEO Kelcy Warren said on the conference call. ETP will also be holding the line on distributions despite the currently lacking distribution coverage thanks to a subsidy from ETE, which will forego $720 million in incentive distribution rights through the end of next year.

The reason this bit of intramural money shuffling sufficed was the relatively benign debt leverage of 4.5 times EBITDA at ETP and 3.2 times at ETE. With the Williams deal officially dead, those aren’t the sorts of numbers to rile the credit raters into threats of costly downgrades.

Even so, Energy Transfer has had to scramble for the capital needed to bankroll its heavy investment slate for projects set to come on line by the end of the year.

And, as with the well-timed sale of its filling stations to an affiliated MLP this spring, it continues to scramble very effectively. Alongside its earnings last week, Energy Transfer announced the sale of a 36.75% stake in its Bakken-to-the-Gulf oil pipeline currently under construction to a joint venture between Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE: EEP) and Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC). The sale price of  $2 billion works out to a modest 13% premium over the Dakota Access Pipeline’s estimated $4.8 billion cost.

Energy Transfer Partners will get $1.2 billion of the cash, with its affiliate Sunoco Logistics (NYSE: SXL) garnering the remainder. And while the cash will come in handy, so will adding two new big strategic crude shippers to the ownership group. Their additional volumes are now expected to boost volumes on the pipeline from the initial planned capacity of 470,000 barrels a day closer to the 570,000 bbl/d maximum in relatively short order after the project is completed late this year.

Other key growth projects also remain on schedule, according to management. These include new outlets for Appalachian gas and gas liquids into the Midwest and to the Atlantic seaboard as well as new gathering systems and processing plants in the uniquely busy Permian Basin.

The necessary financing for these investments now appears to have been secured without resort to a distribution cut.

Conservative pick ETP remains a Hold despite the generous 10.1% current annualized yield, because that yield is likely to constitute the bulk of the returns over the next year. ETE remains our favorite recommendation given its 6.7% yield and unrivaled long-term opportunity to profit from investments made by affiliates. #1 Best Buy ETE has a $19 limit in the Growth Portfolio.

 

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