A Crude Windfall From Canada

From clear across a continent, Canada’s oil industry looks like a mess. It’s got a lot of capital locked up in costly oil sands projects, and is concentrated in the area recently ravaged by forest fires. What’s more, its wells and sandpits are far from demand centers, increasing shipping costs and risk of regulatory barriers blocking market access.

A closer inspection is much more encouraging. All that capital locked up in the oil sands is mostly sunk cost, so the projects begun before the oil crash are proceeding to completion, and promise to significantly boost Canadian energy production over the next few years. The wildfires have been put out, and Alberta’s output largely restored.

In fact, Canada’s National Energy Board expects almost no change in oil production this year. (U.S. government forecasters output, in contrast, project U.S. output to drop more than 7% this year.) Market access, however, remains a Canadian problem.  And that’s where leading Canadian crude shipper Enbridge (NYSE: ENB) comes in.

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Its transcontinental oil pipeline network stretches from northern Alberta all the way down to the U.S. Gulf Coast and east to Quebec. Enbridge handles more than half of Canada’s crude output and 60% of the country’s rapidly rising oil exports to the U.S.

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Of particular interest to us are Enbridge’s two U.S. affiliates. Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE: EEP) is an MLP that owns key segments of the Enbridge system on U.S. soil, shown in blue below.

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Based on its latest distribution and the recent unit price a bit below $25, EEP currently yields an annualized 9.5%. That would have been fully covered in the most recent quarter out of cash flow even if the MLP wasn’t paying out some of the distributions in equity. The recipient of that equity was Enbridge Equity Management (NYSE: EEQ), which serves as a tracking stock for EEP. But while EEP is a pass-through partnership that issues K-1 forms to investors, EEQ distributes additional shares in lieu of a cash dividend, and sends out a form 1099 in the year any of its stock is sold. EEQ’s sole asset is its 16% interest in EEP, and its equity distributions are based on the MLP’s payouts.

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EEP’s 9%-plus cash yield and EEQ’s comparable equity reinvestment pace are backed in roughly equal measure by inflation-indexed pipeline tariffs and cost-of-service arrangements fixed for the next 25-30 years. The latter are not dependent on volumes.

The entire system is poised to benefit from the steady ramp of oil sands production volumes. No one in their right mind would start one of these projects from scratch at the current oil price. But the ones already built have every incentive to go full bore as soon as possible.

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Strong demand from crude shippers was evident in EEP’s second-quarter results, with volumes on its flagship system up 10% year-over-year and adjusted operating income jumping 20%.

But Enbridge and its affiliates also face a couple of serious long-term challenges. One will be financing several potentially lucrative but costly growth prospects on its drawing board. Moody’s recently put creditors on notice that Enbridge’s investment-grade rating is under review given high leverage the agency estimates at 7 times EBITDA. EEP’s management claimed standalone debt/EBITDA ratio of 4.6 on the recent earnings conference call.

The credit downgrade threat matters: as we’ve recently seen, MLPs will do almost anything to hang on to their investment-grade market access. Conceivably, EEP might need to cut its distributions down the road. More likely, it will raise additional equity capital as its units appreciate. They fetched $40 as recently as early 2015, and the current yield looks too rich for its assets.

Management recently reiterated that EEP doesn’t plan to issue equity this year. Instead, the MLP will lean heavily on its sponsor to finance the recent $1.5 billion investment in the Bakken-to-the-Gulf pipeline under construction by Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP).

This deal supplants Enbridge’s plans to increase the export capacity of its own Bakken system, which faced regulatory delays. It will provide additional capacity for Alberta crude shippers seeking to access the refineries and loading docks along the Gulf Coast. Separately, Enbridge and EEP are pushing on with plans for a new crude pipeline from Alberta to Canada’s Pacific coast. That project has run into delays caused by local opposition as well.

If oil prices stay low in the years to come, Enbridge will need to find a new source of growth once the current ramp of crude flows from the oil sands runs its course over the next several years. But demand for its current pipes looks assured into the next decade at least.

And the yield is highly attractive relative to comparable crude shippers like Plains All American (NYSE: PAA).

We’re adding both EEP and EEQ to Growth Portfolio. Buy EEP below $30 and EEQ below $29. Which one you choose depends on your tax and income preferences. EEP is best for taxable accounts and investors looking to generate current income, while EEQ is more suitable for an IRA.

One other point worth making is that EEP currently pays Enbridge very little in incentive distributions following a 2014 restructuring of that arrangement. Enbridge will garner 25% of future growth in EEP distributions.

 

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