Last Stand for Dakota Pipeline Foes

If any master limited partnership has ever made an acquisition not immediately accretive to its distributable cash flow coverage, we must have missed it. The phrase, routinely used to reassure limited partners, deserves to be ignored as nearly meaningless boilerplate.

All that’s required to get over that low hurdle is for a deal to be transacted at a slightly lower earnings multiple than what the market has assigned to the buyer’s equity. Alternately, financing some of the purchase cost with debt has the same effect, since interest rates are so low these days.

That’s certainly true of the announcement this week by recent recommendation Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE: EEP) detailing the terms of its participation in the Dakota Access Pipeline investment made by its sponsor Enbridge (NYSE: ENB) and Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC). Enbridge ended up with a 27.6% stake in the pipeline, and its Enbridge Energy Partners MLP affiliate is buying a quarter of that interest, or an effective 9.2% stake in the cash flow of Dakota Access. The cost to EEP will be a proportionate $375 million, to be financed with borrowings and issuance of equity to Enbridge that will pay distributions in additional equity until 2019. EEP will also retain an option to boost its net pipeline stake to nearly 15% by the end of 2019.

EEP’s solid distribution coverage should look even more so in the wake of this transaction and once the pipeline becomes operational (by the end of this year, is the hope.) But the real reason this deal looks like a winner is that Enbridge and Marathon are investing at a modest 15% markup over construction cost, in a pipeline likely to see significantly higher crude volumes as a result of their participation.

There are catches remaining, of course. The construction permits granted to the pipeline by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have been challenged in court by a Sioux tribe whose reservation the project skirts, and whose water supply would be jeopardized by a spill. A federal judge will rule on the tribe’s request for an injunction on Sept. 9. A separate complain to the Iowa Utilities Board has temporarily halted work on the pipeline in parts of that state.

The risk that these block the pipeline at this point seems low, but it’s there nonetheless. It’s also worth noting that the increasing difficulty of winning approvals for new energy pipelines in the U.S. as well as Canada is part of what makes Dakota Access so commercially appealing. The public opposition to new pipes should limit future competition and increase the value of this asset.

We remain enthused by EEP, which is now yielding nearly 10% following the recent pullback as well as by its corporate proxy Enbridge Energy Management (NYSE: EEQ), which pays its dividends in the form of additional EEQ shares rather than cash. Buy EEQ below $29 and EEP below $30.

 

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