Unloved and Undervalued

Despite the recent swoon, the technology sector has been one of the top performers in the last year, just behind utilities and telecoms. So it’s tough to find tech stocks without sky-high valuations that will get hammered in a correction.

But uncovering undervalued stocks can be as simple as sifting through those most analysts ignore. These stocks can be younger, smaller companies with low profiles, or more mature companies that haven’t courted analyst coverage.

To find them, I screen out companies followed by more than five analysts. Stocks typically start to move once 10 analysts track the stock, because when more analysts generate reports, more investors hear about the company.app tech bel fuse graph

Among those stocks flying under the radar, I look for companies with revenue growing at least 10% annually over the past five years and earnings-per-share growth of at least 5%, though the higher that is the better. I look for low debt and high free cash flow.

When such companies post big numbers or start paying dividends, they attract market attention and more analyst coverage, and their stock prices can take dramatic leaps.

I recently ran my screen and came across three interesting underfollowed stocks that could soon start to move, which we’re adding to our Special Situations Portfolio.

To make room for our new additions, we’re also selling two of our Special Situations holdings.

The first is Lattice Semiconductor (NSDQ: LSCC), which has been struggling to break through $6 for nearly a year. Lattice makes programmable semiconductors and related software. The shares looked like they would break higher when China-based Tsinghua Unigroup bought a 6% stake in the company. But the shares have languished.  Our Breakthrough Tech Portfolio holding Xilinx is in a similar business and a much better performer, so we see little reason to hang on to Lattice.

Esko Bionics (OTCBB: EKSO) is also being sold. While we’re still following the exoskeleton theme, Esko has continued drifting lower since it was added to the portfolio.

Sell Lattice Semiconductor and Esko Bionics.

Nuts and Bolts

Bel Fuse (NSDQ: BELFB) is a classic example of an underfollowed stock.

While it is a technology stock, it’s more nuts-and-bolts than cutting-edge. It makes fuses, power supplies, converters and transformers, connectors and shielding. These are ubiquitous in industries from telecommunications to networking and storage, to industrial and the military.

Bel Fuse is hardly a young company, having been founded in 1949, but it’s small with a market cap of only about $273 million and revenue of $567 million last year. Over the past five years, though, its revenue has averaged annual growth of 13.4%, while earnings growth has averaged 5.5%. You would expect that kind of growth to attract some attention. Yet the stock trades at just 10.9 times forward earnings compared with the S&P 500’s 19.3 times.

One reason the company is undervalued is its weak first half of the year. That followed a dip in sales as demand from the agricultural, oil and gas, and military sectors softened. Bel Fuse also posted an operating loss in the first quarter after it took a $108.6 million write-down related to acquisitions it made in 2014.app tech simulation plus

The biggest reason it’s undervalued, though, is that analysts aren’t following it. Despite solid growth over the years, the company has just two analysts covering it regularly. That’s partly due to the company’s size but also because it’s not a sexy business. Analysts will more likely earn their reputations and bonuses covering a hot new biotech firm rather than a company that makes high-tech nuts and bolts.

The company also doesn’t appear to have courted analyst coverage in the past, although it has been working the conference circuit aggressively over the past year, which should increase coverage.

A sturdy growth business, Bel Fuse is a Buy up to $28.

Lab Simulation

I have a personal connection to another company that turned up in my screen, but I need to say up front that it’s high-risk.

My wife worked for several years in pharmaceutical development and testing for early-stage drug trials. Her job involved administering promising new compounds to lab animals in increasing doses while monitoring for adverse effects until a “therapeutic” level was reached, and also evaluating the potential for birth defects.

Animal testing raises ethical concerns for some, plus it’s a drawn-out, expensive process for drug companies. It’s also hazardous for those working in the labs, who may accidentally be exposed to potentially toxic compounds. In my wife’s case, she’s now allergic to most domesticated animals after near-constant exposure to dander and other allergens over seven years.

As usual, science has come to the rescue. Many of the effects that my wife was evaluating in a lab with animals can now be done with computer simulation.

Simulations Plus (NSDQ: SLP) offers simulation technology that can model how an animal or human would absorb a new compound based on the compound’s structure. Simulation technology can predict how much of the compound would make it into the blood after breaking down, and how it would react in the body. That’s a simple explanation of the information generated from the company’s eight simulation programs.

Doing much of the early-stage drug development work via simulation instead of using lab animals assuages the concerns of animal rights activists, protects the health of lab workers and saves drug companies millions.

The company is small, with a market cap of just $160 million, but its five-year annual average revenue growth is 15.3%; earnings-per-share growth is 12.1%. Strong percentages, but last year’s revenue was just $18 million with EPS of 23 cents.

Institutional investors own more than a quarter of the company’s outstanding shares, but only one analyst follows the company. That one analyst predicts earnings will grow 20% this year, and he has a good track record of being right.

As with Bel Fuse, the company isn’t courting analysts. While its executives and scientists spend time at professional conferences, they don’t spend much time at investor events. Its share price has been rising for a decade now, so more attention will come.app tech sapiens

Again, because it is a small company, this is a high-risk, high-reward play. That said, with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 34.1 times, Simulations Plus is undervalued relative to the industry average of 77.3.

Simulations Plus is a Buy up to $12.

Insurance Software

Finally, I like Sapiens International (NSDQ: SPNS). It’s a leading provider of infrastructure software to the insurance industry for policy administration, billing and collections, and data mining. Despite a market cap of $660 million and a 30-year history, only four analysts cover the company.

 That’s surprising, considering that five-year average revenue growth is 28.8%, while EPS growth has averaged 7.9%. Free cash flow has also taken off, coming in at 17% of revenue last year. Revenue growth has really only improved over that period mainly because of regulatory changes and a general, nascent trend toward outsourcing IT functions.

Sapiens’ valuation is mixed right now, as its P/E ratio of 31.4 is higher than the industry average of 26.1. It is cheaper than the industry as a whole on both a price-to-book and price-to-sales basis, though, and its analysts predict EPS growth of better than 19% this year.

Sapiens should get more coverage now that it has paid an annual dividend for two years running. With the free cash flow the company generates and its relatively low operating costs, plus no debt and nearly $100 million worth of cash and receivables, it would make sense to start a quarterly dividend. That would bring a flock of new analysts.

Buy Sapiens International up to $18.

Stock Talk

Strat

Strat

Can you expound on your reason for dropping Ekso – instead of a one paragraph statement which I felt had little substance. Especially all of the hype over the stock when it was introduced by ID . Thank you

Benjamin Shepherd

Benjamin Shepherd

At this point, I’m most concerned about the rate they’re burning cash.

Ekso effected a 1-for-7 reverse split back in May so that it could meet the minimum price requirement to uplist to the NASDAQ, leaving it with 16.2 million shares outstanding. That was a completely reasonable move since it would make trading easier and also position the company to attract more attention.

Then in August, just three months after the split, it issued 3.75 million shares because it needed to raise cash, bumping its share count up to about 20 million and netting Ekso about $13.7 million. At its current burn rate that cash would optimistically last about three quarters before it would need to raise additional money, most likely by issuing new shares.

Short of sales suddenly taking off, I’m afraid investors are just going to keep getting diluted.

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