Don’t Get Burned by Red-Hot Coal

You know you got lucky when you’ve recommended something less than four months ago and the price has just topped a buy limit you’ve already had to raise. That’s the pleasant problem we face with Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ: ARLP) and Alliance Holdings (NASDAQ: AHGP), which have returned 45% and 37% respectively since joining the Aggressive Portfolio on June 20.

When we last lifted our price targets for this low-cost coal mining MLP and its general partner back in August, they were still yielding more than 9%; that’s down to a shade below 8% by now.

The rally in the surviving coal equities has been stoked by firmer domestic coal prices, though thermal coal hasn’t appreciated as much coking coal and the domestic gains have lagged those overseas.

Still, even the U.S. power producers that were stuck with mountains of surplus coal last spring on the heels of the warmest winter on record are paying up after a hot summer that pared those stockpiles. According to Platts, Northern Appalachian coal has recently been fetching spot prices as high as upper $40s per ton, up from as little as mid-30s in July.

Demand and pricing are expected to remain firm through the end of the year, but beyond that will depend on the winter weather and the degree to which the industry is willing to ramp up production so soon after its near-death experience.

Much will depend too on the price of natural gas, coal’s primary competition in the power sector.

It’s quite possible that this rally has further to go, especially if winter proves cold and the industry cautious. But the gains are likely to be ultimately capped by the continuing decommissioning of coal-burning plants in favor of those fueled by natural gas.

This seems like a good time to take profits in the wake of the rapid recent gains and ahead of a presidential election in which the candidate hostile to coal remains favored.

So we’re recommending you sell half of your initial stakes in ARLP and AHGP. There may be other opportunities to add exposure to this sector, but the current opportunity to lock in big gains and still collect attractive yields on mostly found money is simply too enticing to pass up.

 

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account