For Savvy Savers, Bank Accounts Won’t Suffice

I grew up during a time when it was considered prudent to work hard, pay debts as quickly as possible and save for retirement.

But times have changed. The world’s key central bankers have decided that the interests of borrowers carry much more weight than the interests of savers; the central bankers are employing a slew of tools to force interest rates to historic low levels – and keep them there for an extended period of time.CAD grphic in brief

Top central bankers acknowledge that their policies have disadvantaged savers. U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer recently said that it is clear that savers are struggling in the low-interest-rate environment, but he justified current policies by stating that low interest rates are supportive of higher asset prices.

North of the U.S. border, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz echoed these sentiments and went even further by stating that savers and retirees have to “… adjust to the reality of interest rates that are likely to remain at low levels for a long time.” He also provided some practical advice for retirees and people nearing retirement: save more, work longer and change your investment mix.

Central bankers in some countries in Europe and Japan have now firmly adopted negative policy rates as a tool for monetary policy. By mid-2016, some 500 million people in countries representing a quarter of the world economy were living with rates in the red. By the end of April, about $8 trillion of government bonds worldwide offered yields below zero. That means investors holding to maturity won’t get all their money back.

This outrageous monetary policy tool has not (as yet) made its appearance in North America. But neither Fed Chair Janet Yellen nor Governor Poloz have ruled it out as a possible future policy tool. So be forewarned: come the next recession in the U.S. or Canada, we may well see negative rates here as well — especially if the starting point is as close to zero as we have right now.

In the U.S., there are reasonable prospects for a rate hike before the end of the year. But policy makers don’t see rates rising much over the next few years, with the Federal Funds rate still expected to be below 2% by 2018. This is not even half of the average rate measured over the past 50 years.

In Canada, rates are also expected to remain low, with no increase in policy rates expected until 2018.

Of course, the future is always uncertain, but it is clear that there is no immediate reprieve for long-suffering savers in sight. Savers can continue to hope for higher interest rates, but that is not an investment strategy. The real question is how to position your portfolio in such an environment.in brief no yield left

At the risk of sounding like a stuck gramophone, we will repeat our solution offered a few times previously: high-quality dividend-paying equities remain, to my mind, one of the few sensible investment avenues for income-seeking investors. Our Dividend Champions portfolio offers a yield of 3.5% with dividend growth of 6% for the foreseeable future. This compares very well with deposit rates of 1% or less and 5-year government bonds with similar yields in both the U.S. and Canada.

If Governor Poloz is correct in his assessment of a long period ahead of low interest rates and low returns on investment, investors will probably be well served with the returns offered by our Dividend Champions portfolio, which we estimate between 8% and 15% per year over a full market cycle.

Of course, equities carry a risk of substantial declines over short periods of time. History dictates that one-year holding periods of diversified equity portfolios can deliver negative returns of up to 45%. Very few retirees will sleep easy with that prospect. However, history also indicates that the risk of loss declines sharply with time, so that a holding period of 10 years or longer carries a minimal risk of a capital loss.in brief risk of loss bar chart

So if you carefully select your dividend-paying equities, making sure that their dividends are sustainable supported by solid balance sheets and good cash flow — and if you are prepared to hold the stock for the long term — then our strategy should work well for you.

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