Kinder Morgan Seeks More Partners

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) has now made a virtue out of necessity twice. The third time may not prove the charm.

In 2014 it bought out its affiliated MLPs when their high cost of capital became too much of a brake on its growth plans. Then, late last year, it slashed its dividend by 75% when the debt taken on in that restructuring combined with the energy slump to imperil its credit rating.

At this point, though, the parsimony with the payouts looks more like a band-aid than a cure. With cash flow still under pressure and several costly projects slowed by regulatory reviews and determined opposition, the company is generating relatively little free cash flow with which to pay down debt after capital spending, interest, taxes and dividends. Those were the takeaways from the third-quarter results Kinder Morgan released last week.

As a result, debt remains high at 5.3 times EBITDA, and doesn’t seem likely to get down below 5 next year unless another joint venture partner turns up to invest in some of the midstream giant’s more promising pipes.

The first such deal, announced in July, propelled the stock to a seven-month high in short order. But after climbing to a slightly higher 10-month peak by the end of last month KMI shares shed a quick 13% ahead of the quarterly accounting. And the token bounce since can’t be mistaken for a vote of confidence.  

Management sounded eager to line up more outside money to work off the debt a little faster. But its most marketable asset, the proposed expansion of the Trans Mountain crude pipeline in the Canadian west, still hasn’t secured regulatory approvals. And while higher energy prices should spur cash flow in the long run, more project delays could further strain the bottom line.  Kinder Morgan’s push into new business lines such as coastal oil tankers and liquefied natural gas exports carries its own risks.

Meanwhile, sell-side sentiment, interesting mainly as a signal to fade, is turning increasingly bullish. At least four analysts have upgraded KMI in the last couple of days following the quarterly release, including Raymond James to a Strong Buy this morning.  

Optimistic as I am not the sector’s near-term prospects, this particular comeback story is going to need more time. Growth recommendation KMI remains a Hold.

 

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