Trump to the Rescue

Besieged by Native Americans on the plains and bears on Wall Street, Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) got rescued in the nick of time last week. The cavalry arrived in the form of Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory.

Trump consistently promoted fossil fuels during his campaign, placing the industry near the top of his deregulation agenda. It doesn’t hurt that Energy Transfer proprietor Kelcy Warren donated a combined $1.7 million during this election cycle to Trump’s campaign, the Republican National Committee and conservative outside spending groups.

ETE’s share price jumped 17% Wednesday after Trump pulled off a shock upset, held its ground Thursday even as the Energy Transfer MLPs reported diminished earnings, and climbed another 4% Friday on speculation that an affiliate will soon be allowed to complete the controversial Dakota Access pipeline opposed by the Standing Rock Sioux tribe and environmentalists.

I’ve speculated all along that the federally mandated delay of the pipeline’s final link was meant to defer action until after the election. That still appears to have been the case, and the company said Friday it expects the Army Corps of Engineers to shortly reinstate the river crossing easement the Corps has already granted. That approval was suspended by the Obama Administration two months ago, ostensibly so that the Corps could check for errors in its permitting process.

The very first question asked by an analyst on the earnings conference call Thursday concerned “the potential for a significant policy shift” on energy infrastructure under Trump, and Warren wasn’t shy about his expectations.

“It’s only going to get better,” he said. “I mean, for us to preach that we support infrastructure development and then yet do everything we can to block it, that doesn’t feel very good to me. But I think that’s going to change.”

The Dakota Access Pipeline is one of several pending projects Energy Transfer is counting on to reverse the effects of low energy prices on its earnings.

ETE’s distributable cash flow coverage was 1.16x on a distribution kept flat for the last year, yielding 6.7% at the current unit price of $17. To get a truer picture, you’d need to add the temporary $85 million quarterly discount on the incentive distribution rights owed by Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) to the distributable cash flow and increase distributions by the $56 million Warren is currently forgoing on his cash distributions each quarter in favor of heavily discounted equity. Netting out those brings the coverage up to 1.24x.

At ETP, distribution coverage declined to 0.82x for the third quarter and 0.87x for the past nine months. Subtracting the $127 million in IDR relinquishments by ETE from cash flow would leave the Q3 coverage at just 0.72x.

But the main drag at this point is coming from non-core segments like compression and an investment in a refinery, as well as the recent disposal of Sunoco filling stations.  And the cash flow should improve even if energy prices don’t, as Dakota Access and several other new projects start earning their keep next year.

ETP units have rallied 14% since Trumps victory yet still yield 11.1% on annualized basis. And that’s a real problem for its general partner ETE, because while it’s now entitled to nearly half of ETP’s cash flow before relinquishments, that also means its main affiliate is facing a real cost of equity of around 20%, well in excess of a realistic return on a midstream investment.

“This is heavy on our mind these days and we’re looking at options,” Warren said in the most interesting comment of the conference call, in response to a question about a potential merger between ETE and ETP or a buyout  of the incentive distribution rights owed by ETP. The analyst suggested Energy Transfer could save $600 million annually by taming ETP’s yield, and noted that similar restructurings have been favorably received by investors.

It does sound like a restructuring is coming, and you can count on it favoring ETE over ETP, simply because that’s where Warren’s bread is buttered.

Of course, ETE didn’t become 17% more valuable with Trump’s election. But neither did it deserve to lose 26% over the two preceding months, mostly, it appears, on unfounded fears for the future of Dakota Access. Growth pick ETE remains the #1 Best Buy below $22; ETP is a Hold, also in the Growth portfolio. 

Stock Talk

Guest

Guest

In your opinion what would a deal between the two look like?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I assume you’re wondering, as I am, about the structure of a deal between ETE and ETP. Somehow a straight merger doesn’t seem the likeliest alternative to me; just think Warren won’t want to load up on debt like Kinder to get that deal done at this point. Something like an IDR restructuring but not elimination in exchange for ETP’s SUN units maybe? It sounds based on the conference comments like we’ll find out soon enough.

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