Glory Days

You will probably recognize the chorus from Bruce Springsteen’s hit song of the 1980s that recounts the glorious times of days gone by: the little league baseball star who could “throw a speedball by you” and the schoolgirl that could “turn all the boys’ heads.” Sadly for them, the former glory days did not continue.p1 glory days text put at top with intro

Stock markets also experience glory days. As opposed to the Springsteen song, these glorious periods repeat themselves regularly, providing much joy to investors who stay the course.

However, investors are constantly bombarded with news about events that may presumably cause markets to melt down.

Just think of the market-moving news items that dominated the headlines over the past few years: Brexit, the U.S. presidential election, the global financial crisis, terrorist attacks in Paris, wars in the Middle East, the Greek government debt crisis, huge declines in oil prices, massive fines levied on banks, super low interest rates and unconventional actions by central banks to stimulate economic activity. And we can carry on.

Despite all this potentially bad news for the market, global equities have gained 50% over the past five years and 109% over the past 20 years (which includes the global financial crisis). U.S equities as measured by the S&P 500 have done even better, with 85% and 200% returns over the 5- and 20-year periods, respectively.cad p2

Not bad, most investors would agree. However, there is a catch: equity market returns do not come in equal daily measures. The best-performing days come around only occasionally, and if you miss them your investment returns will look considerably worse than if you stayed invested.

The chart demonstrates the experience over the 20-year period between 1993 and 2013. If investors remained fully invested in the S&P 500 over this period, their annual return would have been 9.22% per year and an initial $10,000 investment would have grown to $58,332. However, if they missed the 10 best market days, the investment return drops to 5.49% per year. If they missed the 50 best days, the return drops to -2.77% per year. In the last case the original $10,000 investment became $5,697.

You can also argue that missing the worst 10 or 30 days in the market can improve your investment results to the same tune, and statistically that would be correct. However, the chances of avoiding the worst days are almost as remote as hitting the best days. The point is, forget about timing the market – for the most part, it does not work. If you want to experience the glory days over and over, you need to remain invested. There is no other sensible way.glory days bar chart p2

For those investors who are sensitive to short-term market volatility, I would suggest that you buy some out-of-the-money protective put options on the overall market or on your largest holdings. The cost of the options will detract somewhat from your overall return, but will at least protect you against the risk of being out of the market at the wrong time. And it may help you sleep a bit easier.

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Stock Talk

Karl

Karl

As a retiree i’m more interested in a higher yield than in dividend growth. I hold some stocks of the Legacy Portfolio which have a much higher yield than the highest yield in the Dividend Champions portfolio. If you don’t cover the stocks i hold in the Watch List i’ll cancel the Canadian Edge Service.

Best,
Karl

Ari Charney

Ari Charney

Hi Karl,

Thank you for your feedback.

Since May 2015 (when Deon took over), a handful of former Conservative and Aggressive Holdings were strong enough to merit inclusion in the Dividend Champions, while a number of others are on the Watch List for that portfolio.

As noted in the latest issue, we’ll be looking to add more Legacy Holdings to the Watch List to monitor as eventual additions to the Dividend Champions, while offering swap recommendations for some of those that don’t make the cut.

Like the Dividend Champions, the Legacy Holdings offer a range of yields from low to high. But you’re right: Some names in the latter currently have significantly higher yields than the highest-yielding names in the former.

However, it should be noted that some of the high yields among the Legacy Holdings have been further inflated by declines in share price, particularly among those entities facing challenges at a fundamental, operational or macro level.

And that gets to the heart of what Deon has tried to do with Canadian Edge: A return to focus on high-quality dividend payers with rising payouts.

After all, you don’t get a high yield without higher risk. And a high yield becomes less attractive if a business can’t sustain its payout, or if it somehow manages to support the dividend, but the underlying security suffers a steep decline.

Beyond that, the high-yield space is much more finite than you might imagine. There are just 48 Canadian stocks with market caps of at least CAD250 million that yield 6% or higher.

And if you’re looking for a high-yielding stock that offers the right trade-offs between risk and reward for conservative income investors, then the pool of suitable portfolio candidates shrinks even further. For example, if I screen out those companies with extraordinarily high leverage of at least 5.0x net debt to EBITDA, then that list shrinks to just 13 names.

And that’s just one criterion–as we focus on narrower subsets of securities, our criteria for what makes a Dividend Champion get even more stringent.

This situation certainly doesn’t preclude us from adding higher-yielding names to the Dividend Champions, especially if they have strong fundamentals and are trading at attractive valuations. Indeed, two of the high yielders that Deon added to the Dividend Champions over the past year-and-a-half were subsequently taken over at significant premiums.

In addition to the size of the payout itself, yield is also partly a function of share price. And the yields listed in the current portfolio tables offer just one snapshot in time.

For instance, many of the fundamentally strong Dividend Champions have seen yields compressed this year due to strong share-price appreciation. In January, for instance, Inter Pipeline was yielding 7%. Now it’s yielding around 5.6% due to the strong gain in share price this year.

Lastly, we’re keenly aware that many subscribers are looking for high-yielding securities to generate current income.

But dividend growth is almost as important as current yield. Not only is a rising payout suggestive of a company’s fundamental strength, it also means you’re getting a regular pay raise.

You might be surprised by how quickly dividend growth can compound income (and wealth), especially if you purchase a dividend grower at an attractive valuation.

Best regards,
Ari

Karl

Karl

Hi Ari,

thanks for the quick answer. I was a subscriber of GE and was moved to CE. At this time i added some of the high yielding stocks of the Legacy Portfolio because they were buy-rated and the price was well below the buy limit. Also your latest comments for these stocks sound well. So i hope that these stocks are covered in the future by CE.

I’m also a subscriber of PF which have the portfolio “Maximum Income for Retirees”. I could move my investments in this stocks but i prefer to hold stocks in the Canadian Dollar. Perhaps you can create a similar portfolio?

Best,
Karl

Ari Charney

Ari Charney

Hi Karl,

When you have a moment, please reply with the Legacy Holdings that you own in your portfolio. It would help us get a sense of how to manage the transition.

Thanks,
Ari

Karl

Karl

Hi Ari,

i hold the following stocks of the Legacy Holdings: AX-U, BRE, BEP-U, DIR-U, NVU-UN, STB.
Although the last two stock are rated as a hold i decided to hold them because i saw some positive developments in this stocks.

For me is important that the business of a holding is solid and the distributions are stable and covered solidly. I don’t care if a hype let the stock price jump up and down. I can stomach a lot of volatility like we saw in the last two years, e. g. in STB.

Thanks for thinking about to cover this stocks!

Best regards,
Karl

Ari Charney

Ari Charney

Hi Karl,

Thank you for taking the time to reply with this information–very helpful.

Best regards,
Ari

Guest One

Deon Vernooy

Karl and Sig, thank you for your comments. I agree with Ari’s reply below but it will also be useful if you can let us know on which specific stocks you would like to see ongoing coverage.

Deon

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