Third Quarter Results Wrap

We have now had a full round of quarterly results from our Dividend Champions — except for the retailer North West Company, which is expected to report in mid-December.

In summary, the Dividend Champions had a good quarter, with all the companies announcing higher or unchanged dividends compared to the same period last year. The average dividend increase was 6%, providing adequate protection against inflation for investors dependent on the income stream. The table below summarizes the outcome for the Dividend Champions portfolio.dwl average table

The companies that are unable to grow their dividends faster than the rate of inflation are most at risk to lose value should interest rates move to much higher levels for a sustained period. High-yielding stocks with no growth in dividends are effectively bond proxies that move with bond prices.

We currently have seven companies in this group, including companies that will resume dividend growth when energy prices recover suffiently. This group includes Suncor, Finning and Shawcor.

Also in this group are North West Company and K-Bro Linen, which have immediate capital requirements to finance business expansion, leaving little room for dividend growth. Riocan, where dividends have been stagnant since 2012, is probably our only real problem child for now. The trust still has to fill the profit hole left by the sale of the U.S. business and revenue from plans to develop a larger portion of residential properties is still a long way off. Despite the high-quality portfolio of the portfolio, we are reconsidering our position.

Summaries of our take on the results that were published since last month’s report are provided below. More comprehensive reports are available in our weekly publications.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (TSX: BIP-U, NYSE: BIP) reported a 12% increase in Funds from Operations per unit (“FFO” and an estimate of operating cash flow) for the third quarter of 2016. The dividend per unit was 11% higher than a year ago.dwl brookfield table

The largest unit, Transportation, posted a 14% increase in EBITDA profit while the second largest division, Utilities, recorded slightly lower profits. The swing factor was the Energy division, where profits increased by 68% on the back of a higher contribution from existing operations and the acquisition of Niska gas storage.

The balance sheet is fully levered, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 61% although the S&P credit rating remains investment grade.

The dividend yield remains attractive at 4.9%. Investors should also note that Brookfield previously announced a three-for-two split of their unit effective September 14 for holders of record on September 6. This was a non-taxable event, and should have no influence of the value of the business. However, each unit price reduced by one third for which unitholders were compensated by the issue of additional units.

CI Financial (TSX: CIX, OTC: CIFAF), the medium-sized Canadian asset management company, produced what we would describe as reasonable results for the third quarter, with earnings per share unchanged compared to last year. The dividend was 5% higher.dwl ci financial table

The company experienced its third consecutive net quarterly outflow of assets under management as institutional investors effected large redemptions. Profit margins were also squeezed as the trend towards lower management fees for actively managed accounts continued.

Despite the net outflow of assets, the assets under management for the firm still increased by 3% to C$112 billion, courtesy of rising equity and bond prices.

The balance sheet remains strong and cash flow abundant. Free cash flow is currently fully utilized to pay dividends and repurchase shares from the market.

Times are tough for mutual fund managers; only those that can demonstrate that performance after fees can beat the indices or low cost ETFs will survive in the long run. CI Financial is a high-quality operation, but pressure on margins will continue as the portfolio managers work to improve fund performance. Meanwhile the valuation is in line with the peer group with an attractive dividend yield of 5.6%. We estimate the fair value at C$28 or US$21.

Tough times continue for Finning International (TSX: FTT, OTC: FINGF), as earnings per share declined by 35% in the third quarter compared to last year. The dividend remained unchanged.dwl finning table

Finning has been hard at work over the past year to align the cost base to the weaker operating environment. Although operating costs were down by 9%, revenues declined even faster than the cost reductions.

The outlook for the company remains challenging as commodity producers adjust to the new reality of lower product prices. However, we may have seen the worst of the profit declines and we expect to see much better results in 2017 albeit from a low base.

The market is already discounting a full recovery in profitability for Finning, and the stock has moved up strongly from its early 2016 lows. We estimate the fair value at C$27 or US$21 and the dividend yield remains reasonable at 2.7%.

Fortis Inc. (TSX: FTS, NYSE: FST) reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share 4% higher than the same period last year, while the dividend was 7% higher.dwl fortis table

Operating results from the various divisions were generally sound, with the regulated utilities in both Canada and the U.S steaming ahead and delivering a 10% increase in profits.

A key focus for Fortis during the quarter was the completion of the US$11.3 billion acquisition of ITC, the U.S. Midwest transmission business. Management expects the transaction to make a positive contribution to earnings per share in the first full year of operation.

Fortis’ balance sheet remains in good condition, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 56%, although the A- S&P credit rating has been moved to a negative outlook after the announcement of the ITC acquisition.

The company intends to grow its dividend by 6% per year for the foreseeable future, a goal that is supported, in our view, by strong cash flow and a reasonably leveraged balance sheet. We estimate the fair value at C$45 or US$34 with a dividend yield of 3.8%.

Inter Pipeline (TSX: IPL, OTC: IPPLF) reported credible Q3 2016 results, posting an increase in Funds from Operations per share (an estimate of cash flow or “FFO”) 2% higher than the year before. The dividend per share was 4% higher.dwl inter pipeline table

The business performed well at the operating level, with the star performance coming from the natural gas liquids processing activities where higher volumes and better margins supported a 22% increase in profits. The European bulk liquid storage facilities operated at almost full capacity to deliver a 4% increase in profits.

The largest division, oil sands pipelines, delivered slightly lower profits caused by lower volumes on the Cold Lake pipelines. This seems to be a temporary hiccup related to the timing of steam injection cycles of certain clients.

During the quarter the company concluded a $1.4 billion acquisition of The Williams Companies Canadian natural gas liquids midstream business. The acquisition included two NGL and olefinic liquids extraction plants located in Alberta and a 490-kilometre pipeline system that connects the facilities.

The balance sheet remains fully levered, with the debt-to-capital ratio at 60% and investment grade credit ratings from the main agencies. Capital expenditures continue to move sharply lower as the multi-year expansion program comes to an end.

The dividend yield of 6.1% remains attractive and we estimate the fair value of the business at C$30 or US$23.

K-Bro Linen (TSX: KBL, OTC: KBRLF) reported disappointing Q3 2016 results as the benefits of the 3sHealth contracts and the new Regina plant were offset by a jump in opeating expenses. Earnings per share decreased by 10% compared to last year while the dividend was left unchanged.dwl kbro table

Revenues increased by 10% as the new 3sHealth and Vancouver lower mainland contracts made a full contribution for the quarter but operating expenses moved up by 13%, resulting in a marginal EBITDA decline. Margins were marginally lower than the previous year, and management warned that margins will remain under pressure for several quarters as the new Toronto facility is put into operation.

The balance sheet is in excellent shape, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 8%. Cash flow from operations is healthy, increasing by 35% compared to the first nine months of last year. The dividend is well covered with a pay-out ratio of 46% of distributable cash flow.

The stock is reasonably valued with an EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.4 times, which reflects a discount to its main peers. Our fair value estimate is C$46 or US$35. The dividend yield is 3.0%.

Manulife Financial (TSX: MFC, NYSE: MFC) delivered a 14% increase in core earnings per share (excluding market gains and losses on the investment portfolio) for the third quarter of 2016. The dividend was 9% higher than the same quarter last year.dwl manulife table

Asia was the best-performing region, with core earnings up by 17% reflecting good business growth. Asia is proving a big winner for Manulife, as insurance sales rose by 28% and double-digit growth in most territories.

Both Canada and the U.S. operations also improved core earnings but at more sedate pace. Some of the other highlights of the quarter included a 12% increase in company-wide premiums and deposits and a 9% increase in assets under management.

The share price jumped over the past few weeks as long-term interested rates moved up sharply. However, the business valuation remains reasonably attractive with a 2017 price to earnings ratio of 11 times, a price to book ratio of 1.1 times and a dividend yield of 3.4%.

Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX: SCL, OTC: SAWLF) reported higher Q3 2016 profits with underlying earnings per share (excludes market and asumption changes) increasing by 21% compared to the previous year. The dividend recorded an 8% improvement over last year.dwl sunlife table

Underlying profits in the Canadian operation was 30% higher than the comparable quarter last year with insurance sales up by 9% so far this year.

The U.S. and Asian operations also increased profits with Asia recording a 42% jump in insurance sales and growth across the region.

The share price jumped over the past few weeks as long-term interested rates moved up sharply. However, the business valuation remains reasonably attractive with a 2017 price to earnings ratio of 13 times, a price to book ratio of 1.6 times and a dividend yield of 3.3%.

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX: TD, NYSE: TD) reported solid if unexciting results for the fourth quarter of their 2016 financial year, with adjusted earnings per share increasing by 7% compared to the previous year. The dividend per share was 8% higher.dwl td bank table

At the overall level, the bank performed well with higher revenues, lower insurance claims and lower proportional provisions for credit losses.

Canada Retail banking, the main contributor to profits, reported slightly higher net income boosted by lower insurance claims. This has become a low growth business although it remains highly profitable with a 42% return on equity.

The U.S. Retail banking operation had another excellent quarter with profits in U.S. dollar terms improving by 14% as a result of higher loan volumes, growth in credit cards and stable lending margins. Expenses were tightly controlled despite the higher business volumes resulting in a considerable improvement in the efficiency ratio (operating expenses as a portion of revenues).

A key risk for the Canadian banks remain the elevated state of the housing market and the possible negative impact on balance sheets and profits should the market deteriorate sharply. TD bank remains relatively well positioned compared to the other main Canadian banks, with a conservatively managed mortgage book of which 50% is insured.

This is currently our only holding among the Canadian banks, and with a 2016 forward price to earnings ratio of 12 times and a dividend yield of 3.7%, we intend to remain shareholders. We estimate the fair value of the stock at C$65 or US$49.

TMX Group (TSX: X, OTC: TMXXF) reported good results with adjusted third-quarter earnings per share 27% higher than the same quarter last year. The dividend was increased by 13% – the first increase since 2010.dwl tmx table

The business delivered a solid all-round performance with revenue increases in all verticals as new listings and trading benefitted from improved market conditions.

The balance sheet remains strong, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 22% and excellent cash flow.

The stock valuation discount to its global peers has narrowed considerably over the past few months, but it will require a consistent improvement for the valuation to improve further. The dividend yield of 2.9% remains attractive and with a pay-out ratio of 32% of cash flow should provide enough room to sustain and increase the payout further. The share price has advanced substantially over the past few months but further gains may be limited for some time. We estimate the fair value at C$65 or US$50.

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