Top Picks in Testy Times

Breakthrough Tech Profits is evolving.

In last month’s issue we underscored some of our top returns in stocks and options, including a couple of triple-digit scores in three months or less, and many 40% or more returns in the same time frame.

In this month’s issue we’ll underscore what we consider our best picks right now. With the markets hitting new highs almost every day and with the political and economic situations in flux, finding places to invest now is particularly tough.p1 graphic

This is part of our evolution, as we’ll be focusing on fewer stocks and highlighting our timeliest picks in every issue and weekly update. More than ever our systems, which pick companies using technology to revolutionize their businesses, are cutting through the noise in the markets and earning you breakthrough profits.

We’ll discuss these changes more in coming weeks, but for now, here are our top picks:

USA Technologies

Payments technology—from PayPal to Stripe to Google Wallet to Apple Pay—is all the buzz these days, but the buzz is missing the point. Most of the country’s 6,000 vending machines can’t even accept credit cards yet. USA Technologies (NSDQ: USAT) is rapidly changing that. Its products leapfrog vending machines and other remote-payment kiosks into the 21st Century, allowing customers to swipe, insert, dip or tap their way to their next Snickers Bar.

Before you snicker off this company, consider its opportunity: As the market leader, it has as yet less than 8% market share and is signing on over 100,000 new vending machines every year. We first wrote about USA Technologies in our October issue, “The Ka-Ching in the Cashless Revolution.”

Buy USA Technologies up to $5.40 per share.

Web.com

The market helping 28 million small businesses run their websites (half don’t have one yet at all) is heating up, and the competition is weighing on the stock of Web.com. All that competition is in the low end of the market (think: Build your own website for $69!), while Web.com (NSDQ: WEB) is all about the high end (think: We’ll run your Michigan realtor website and manage your digital ad campaign for $5,000 per year!).

Its advantages will be born out over coming quarters as Web.com simplifies its financial statements, which only a forensic accountant can understand, and the company’s true fiscal health becomes apparent. See our August issue, “Caught in a Tangled Web of Misunderstood Data,” for the full report.

Buy up to $24.

Trimble

Trimble (NSDQ: TRMB) will have a prosperous new year as the agriculture market is finally starting to look up. Futures prices for corn and soybeans had a strong rally this fall, not just for near-term contracts but also those extending to the 2017 and 2018 harvests. That’s given farmers a solid sentiment boost.  A recent survey showed that the number of respondents who expect “bad times financially” over the next five years dropped from 56% to 42% in November. Those expecting good times rose from 35% to 37%.p2 trimble

That’s not exactly resounding optimism, but a sanguine farmer is one more likely to spend on equipment, such as Trimble’s assisted- and self-navigating tractors and combines, especially if crop prices do rise. Trimble has also been ramping up its software offerings, combining three previously available software packages into one and optimizing them for desktop, Web-based and mobile use. That trifecta should make the software much more attractive for potential users, boosting sales at little extra cost for the company.

That’s already contributing to an improving outlook for the company, with revenue expected to hit $2.35 billion this year and $2.48 billion in 2017, with earnings per share rising to $1.35 next year. We introduced Trimble to our portfolio in our May inaugural issue, “Agtech Feeding the Masses.”

Buy Trimble under $36.

Silicon Laboratories

Silicon Laboratories (NSDQ: SLAB) should also have a banner 2017 as the number enabled devices for the Internet of Things (IoT) continues to grow. A Morgan Stanley research report found that of 117 decision makers at manufacturing companies, 90% were developing new chips and sensors with IoT in mind. In fact, technology and services revenue across the IoT universe is expected to hit $7.3 trillion next year alone.

Aside from organically growing demand, the company is also continuing to show developers how to use its products, releasing new reference designs for wireless occupancy sensors and smart outlets just last week. Those plans can be used by any home automation device maker, dramatically reducing design costs and the time needed to get a product to market. Talk about making your own market.

All of that is expected to push revenue from an estimated $693.7 million this year to $741.4 million in 2017, with full-year earnings per share rising from $2.68 to $2.74.

Buy Silicon Laboratories under $72.

Texas Instrumentsp3 Texas Instruments

Breakthrough stocks don’t always come in small or brightly wrapped packages. Texas Instruments (NSDQ: TXN) has a market cap of $73 billion and isn’t as sexy, at first glance, as the FANG stocks— Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet (aka Google). But the world’s largest analog semiconductor producer is poised to deliver a breakout as expectations of faster economic growth under the Trump administration grow. Texas Instruments has a 40% annual growth rate and its analog microprocessor business is growing 28% per year, mainly in two vital areas: automotive and industrial applications. These are already booming and should do even better if the Trump economic thesis lives up to expectations.

And the company is a chip-making monster, always a leap ahead of the competition in scale and profitability. We introduced Texas Instruments to our portfolio in the September issue with the story, “A Texas Cash Flow Machine.”

Buy up to $78.

United Healthcare

Obamacare is going to change or disappear, to be replaced or reshaped by Trumpcare. And shares of United Healthcare (NYSE: UNH), the largest health insurer in the U.S., will be rocked by these changes. Because the move in the share price, up or down, is uncertain we’ve decided to play both possibilities with a straddle, which combines a put and a call option. United Healthcare is also a good long-term bet, as the insurance behemoth is a money-printing machine and much of that cash gushes from the federal government and state governments. Indeed, this company’s greatest asset is also its potential Achilles’ heel—its rapidly growing Medicare replacement policies and its Medicaid managed-care business.

Remember, for a straddle to be profitable the direction of the move is irrelevant. But the move on the winning side of the trade has to be big enough to offset the loss on the losing side.  If the move is indeed sizable and the options behave as we think, the losing-side option’s price will fall close to zero, while the winning side will move significantly higher, more than covering any losses. We initially recommended the straddle in November (“Insurers’ Secret Weapon”), and it has already delivered some paper profits. This low-risk, high-profit-potential trade:

Buy to open United Healthcare June 2017 140 Call Option (UNH170616C00140000) up to $16.  Bought Nov. 17, 2016, at $16. Closing price on Dec. 9, 2016: $23.32

Buy to open United Healthcare June 2017 140 Put Option (NH170616P00140000) up to $10.  Bought Nov.17, 2016, at $5.65. Closing price on Dec. 9, 2016: $4.18.

Initial Straddle Value:  $21.65. Straddle value on Dec. 9, 2016: $27.50.

Stock Talk

Netrat

Netrat

It does not make any sense to buy this today, as the value as of right now is about a $30.65 debit. What is your advice on this?

Joe Duarte

Joe Duarte

You are correct. The trade has been in play for a while and the call side is making a move. With options trades it’s best to catch them as they are recommended. There are three other straddles to choose from.

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