The Year-End Shuffle

  • Antero Midstream Partners (NYSE: AM) buy limit increased to $35 in Growth Portfolio

  • Archrock Partners (NASDAQ: APLP) buy limit increased to $19 in Growth Portfolio

  • Buckeye Partners (NYSE: BPL) downgraded to Hold in Growth Portfolio

  • Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN) downgraded to Hold in Growth Portfolio

  • EQT (NYSE: EQT) designated #9 Best Buy below $80 in Aggressive Portfolio (See story.)

  • Green Plains Partners (NYSE: GPP) downgraded to Sell in Aggressive Portfolio

  • Williams (NYSE: WMB) shifted to Growth Portfolio and upgraded to Buy below $34. (See story.)

Alliance Holdings (NASDAQ: AHGP) garnered no immediate financial benefit from its operating affiliate’s improved third-quarter results, and is likely to keep its distribution steady throughout 2017 and beyond after slashing it by 43% in April. The current payout redistributes to the unitholders almost all the cash received from the affiliated Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ: ARLP), which is expected to generate a cash flow surplus of 50-60% on its own distributions next year. AHGP units recently yielded 7.1% after doubling in price since the coal industry hit bottom in April. Aggressive pick AHGP is a Hold; we recommended selling half of your original stake in October.

Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ: ARLP) reported improved third-quarter results relative to the trough of the downturn in the second quarter. Increased domestic demand and a rare export deal drove a 35% sequential rebound in revenue, pushing it 5% above the levels from a year ago. The partnership is counting on a pickup of 5-10% in coal demand next year and a 5-10% drop in its costs as it closes a mine yet keeps production level by ramping up output elsewhere. That should be enough to deliver coverage of 1.5-1.6x on a distribution recently yielding 6.9%. After slashing the payout by 35% in April, management sounds content to keep it level for the next few years barring a stronger recovery that would allow Alliance to lock in higher prices under long-term supply deals. The unit price set a new one-year high on Dec. 7, up more than 80% since late June but with more volatility of late tied to the ups and downs of natural gas prices. Aggressive pick ARLP is a Hold; we recommended selling half of your original stake in October.

AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) reported a 12% drop in adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year ended Sept. 30. Propane sales volumes fell 10% during the second-warmest year on record in more than a century, and while higher unit margins mitigated some of the damage income was also hit by a $30 million legal reserve. The partnership forecast an EBITDA rebound of 20-30% in the current fiscal year assuming “normal” weather. That would be in line with management’s goal of long-term EBITDA growth of 3-4% annually. The distribution is only up 2% year-over-year as a result of the unfavorable weather, but still yields an annualized 8.4%. The unit price is up 33% from January’s low but down 11% from the July high. Growth pick APU is a Hold.

Antero Midstream Partners (NYSE: AM) continued to benefit from its gas producing sponsor’s rapid growth, reporting a 55% increase in adjusted EBITDA. It’s benefiting from improved margins on its wastewater disposal and treatment business as the sponsor increases the volumes used in well completions. Water treatment and disposal now make up 38% of AM’s profit, and that should rise by the time the partnership completes the world’s largest energy wastewater treatment plant in a year’s time. Distributable cash flow was double what was needed to pay a distribution currently yielding 3.7%. The payout is expected to continue growing 28-30% annually for at least the next two years. Sponsor Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) is exceptionally well hedged for years to come and has excellent shipping options that are helping it realize higher gas prices than many of its Marcellus competitors. AM’s unit price is up 26% year-to-date.  Growth pick AM is the #2 Best Buy below the increased limit of $35.

Archrock (NYSE: AROC) saw the decline in demand for its compression equipment level off considerably during the third quarter, though modest margin erosion continues and management isn’t sure about the timing of the recovery it hopes to see next year. The company did increase the quarterly dividend halved in May from 9.5 cents to 12 cents a share. The increase will be covered by the distribution due from the additional units in its Archrock Partners (NASDAQ: APLP) MLP affiliate, received in exchange for a dropdown of some 4% of the combined compressor fleet’s capacity. The $85 million all-equity deal will help APLP reduce its uncomfortably high debt leverage. Amid a protracted slump, AROC still generated twice the distributable cash flow than what was required to pay the increased dividend. The share price has more than tripled from the February low and doubled since we upgraded the stock to a Buy following the dividend cut in May. The annualized yield is at 3.4% after recent market gains correlated with higher natural gas prices. Aggressive pick AROC is a Hold.

Archrock Partners (NASDAQ: APLP) has begun paying down its debt following the 50% distribution cut in May, but the decline in earnings still nudged its debt-to-EBITDA ratio higher to 5x. The recently completed all-equity dropdown will help on that front because the assets were priced below APLP’s market multiple. APLP’s distribution remained flat in the wake of the cut, with distribution coverage at 2.5x as the partnership prioritized debt reduction. The yield is at 7.6% with the unit price rangebound since mid-May. We see big upside from increased natural gas output for equity still priced at less than 6 times the depressed distributable cash flow. Growth pick APLP is a Buy below the increased limit of $19.

Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) continued to vacuum up investor cash and multiply it with above-market returns in the third quarter, growing assets under management 8% to year-over-year to a mammoth $361 billion. The premier private equity firm and alternative assets manager continues generate 15-20% annualized returns in its flagship, even as many endowments have lost ground over the last year and low interest rates challenge the return assumption for public pension funds. The third quarter’s variable distribution of 41 cents per unit brought the total for the past year to $1.66 per share for a trailing yield of 5.6%. Blackstone is likely to easily best this tally next year as more of its managed assets generate fees and more assets are sold after a market-induced slowdown in such typically lucrative investment exits earlier this year. The unit price rallied 12% in two days Dec. 7-8, breaking out to a new one-year high alongside public markets setting records. BX was recently up 25% in just over a month. The Growth Portfolio  pick is the #8 Best Buy below $34.

BP (NYSE: BP) reported third-quarter earnings down by two-thirds from a year ago based on its preferred measure, as weak refining margins and low energy prices more than offset ongoing cost-cutting. But operating cash flow was down a modest 10% year-over-year, leaving the company on track to fully cover its capital spending plans and dividends from that source next year at oil prices of $50-55 per barrel. Beyond 2017, BP is looking forward to a tapering of the large compensation payments for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.  The share price advanced 7% in the 10 days to Dec. 9 following news of OPEC export curbs. Growth pick BP is a Buy below $42.

Buckeye Partners (NYSE: BPL) reported an improved third-quarter distribution coverage of 1.2x as booming crude and products storage demand amid a global glut lifted terminal revenues. The bottom line also benefited from higher tariffs on the steady products pipeline traffic. But the unit price was recently down 9% since those results were announced in late October on concerns about the price Buckeye paid for half of the international crude storage business owned by major oil trader Vitol. Although management expects growth to reduce the acquisition multiple to 10x EBITDA by 2020, it’s likely to be materially higher based on current profitability and the $1.15 billion purchase price, set via a bidding competition. The oil storage business controls 13 crude terminals around the globe with aggregate storage capacity of 55 million barrels, some in a partnership with its own U.S.-traded MLP affiliate. Vitol, which retains a 50% stake, accounts for 70% of storage revenue. Aside from the cost of the acquisition and the extra debt Buckeye is taking on (likely increasing its debt-to-EBITDA to 4.8x next year) it’s fair to a ask whether the deal marks the top of the storage market with the crude glut expected to shrink over the coming year, and also whether it indicates a lack of attractive U.S. investment opportunities. Still, the units offer a reasonably steady 7.6% yield and the payout is set to continue growing a bit over 4% annually. Growth pick BPL is downgraded to a Hold.

Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN) has enjoyed record amusement park attendance this year, though a summer heat wave limited the gain to 2% through the first 10 months of the year. Spending per visitor rose more than 1%, but rising labor costs have kept overall profitability flat so far this year. The distribution rose 3.6% year-over-year, with units recently yielding an annualized 5.5%. The price has rallied 10% since Nov. 1 to within a percentage point of the summer’s record highs. Growth pick FUN is downgraded to Hold.

CONE Midstream Partners (NYSE: CNNX) wasn’t given much to do during the third quarter, throughput volumes declining sequentially 2% as its sponsors brought just one well on line. So it gathered gas from the legacy wells, conserved cash and still managed distribution coverage of 1.47x on a payout recently yielding 4.9% and growing 15% annually at least through the end of next year. The next year should prove considerably more eventful, because the recent breakup of the upstream drilling venture between CNNX’s  cosponsors, Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) and CONSOL (NYSE: CNX) will likely lead the latter to drill aggressively. CONSOL is planning to spin out its coal operations sometime in the next year or so, transform itself into a pure-play gas driller. It’s also generating free cash flow again, and will spend it to prove that its Marcellus and Utica acreage is as lucrative as suggested by some of the recent well results. Units have more than doubled in value year-to-date and returned 70% since our April recommendation. Growth Portfolio pick CNNX is the #3 Best Buy below $24.

CrossAmerica Partners (NYSE: CAPL) reported a 15% drop in distributable cash flow as the uncommonly wide wholesale gasoline distribution margins of a year ago reverted. That was still enough to provide 1.06x coverage on a distribution increased 5% in the past year and recently yielding 9.5%. The partnership continues to make accretive Midwest station acquisition and to lease out its owned locations to independent owners in order to tamp down margin volatility. It could realize additional growth opportunities once Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX: ATD-A, ATD-B) convenience store chain completes its buyout of CrossAmerica’s general partner CST Brands (NYSE: CST) early next year. We’re down 5% on this pick made in October, but remain optimistic. Growth pick CAPL is a Buy below $33.

DCP Midstream Partners (NYSE: DPM) posted a 15% decline in distributable cash flow for the third quarter, as cost savings and increases in natural gas liquids pipeline traffic were more than offset by reduced gas processing volumes and the roll-off of commodity hedges. Management is hoping the drilling slowdown in east and south Texas, its main problem areas, is about to reverse as energy prices recover. The distribution coverage declined to 1.02x for Q3 but was at 1.15x year-to-date. The distribution, kept level for nearly two years now, seems unlikely to start growing again in the next year or so. The yield was recently at 8.9%. The unit price has been range-bound for seven months but is up 43% year-to-date and has more than doubled from February’s lows. Aggressive pick DPM is a Buy below $36.

Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) suffered from reduced crude pipeline revenue and diminished wholesale fuel distribution volumes and margin in the third quarter. Distributable cash flow was down 15% year-over-year, and distribution coverage declined to 0.99x for the period and 1.16x for the past nine months. That didn’t dissuade the partnership from raising its payout 15% year-over-year. The yield was recently at 8.6% after the unit price rallied 35% over the past month, setting a six-month high. Management  is targeting distribution growth of 10% next year backed by cash flow from stakes in two new crude pipelines. Growth pick DKL is a Hold.

Enbridge Energy Management (NYSE: EEQ) has been rangebound just beneath the 11-month high set in October. The MLP for which it serves as a market proxy, Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE: EEP) reported steady but unspectacular third-quarter results reviewed last month in a portfolio update. EEP units are EEQ’s only asset, and EEP’s current yield of 9.7% is approximated by EEQ by distributions of additional stock instead of cash. As such, EEQ amounts to an automatic dividend reinvestment plan ideal for an IRA and other deferred tax investment accounts. Growth pick EEQ is the #5 Best Buy below $29. EEP is a Growth Buy below $30.

EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC) kept its distribution level for the fourth straight quarter, good for a 5.8% annualized yield as of last week, on a share price rangebound for the last six months after doubling off February’s lows. ENLC’s operating MLP affiliate, EnLink Midstream Partners (NYSE: ENLK) managed a slender distributable cash flow gain in the third quarter, as growth on Oklahoma acreage drilled by sponsor Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) offset north Texas gas volume declines . ENLK and ENLC both posted distribution coverage ratios slightly over 1 for the third quarter. But those results came with an asterisk attached, because the assets that fueled the Oklahoma growth mostly haven’t been paid for yet. That bill will start coming due over the next year, so don’t expect either ENLC or ENLK to resume distribution increases soon. The best thing going for ENLC shareholders are Devon’s aggressive 2017 drilling plans, relative financial strength and a financial as well as operational interest in EnLink. On that basis aggressive pick ENLC remains a Hold. But this is one of the weaker current recommendations, and one that seems likelier to turn into a Sell than a Buy next year.

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) has struggled with diminished gas flows and processing margins, leaving distributable cash flow marginally lower year-over-year and despite the billions spent on the recently completed expansion projects. We covered Enterprise in last week’s portfolio update.   Conservative pick EPD is the #11 Best Buy below $30.

Enviva Partners (NYSE: EVA) posted a 35% year-over-year rise in distributable cash flow, good for coverage of 1.57x on a payout increased 20% in a year’s time. The yield is at 8.2% with the unit price up-and down since hitting a record on Election Day. Management is targeting distribution growth of 12% next year on the heels of the latest dropdown, and the wood pellet MLP’s sponsor is developing more plants and ports across the U.S. Southeast to meet burgeoning overseas demand. That’s coming primarily from Europe, where retrofitting coal power plants to burn wood pellets is the key to meeting ambitious and mandatory renewable energy targets. Demand is also growing in Japan and South Korea, with the U.S. on the backburner as a potentially vast and virtually untapped market. Enviva is a leading global supplier with nearly all of its current shipping capacity contracted for years to come under long-term agreements with power generators. Relatively low debt leverage of 2.2x EBITDA gives it plenty of financial flexibility to expand.  Aggressive pick EVA is the #6 Best Buy below $29.

EQT (NYSE: EQT) enjoyed a strong five-week run alongside rallying natural gas prices into early December, but then gave back the bulk of those gains as gas prices retrenched and the company’s annual forecast disappointed. EQT plans capital spending of $1.5 billion next year out of operating cash flow of $1.2 billion and cash on hand, along with production growth of 9%. That was lower than preliminary estimates of a 12-15% growth rate next year. Management expects the 2017 spending to drive annual output growth of 15-20% in 2018 and beyond. We remain impressed with the long-term profitability of the company’s recently enlarged acreage at the core of the Marcellus shale, and the stock remains relatively inexpensive, especially given the company’s solid balance sheet. See more on the stock in this month’s Best Buys. Aggressive pick EQT is the #9 Best Buy below $80.

EQT GP Holdings (NYSE: EQGP) shares representing EQT’s interests in its affiliated EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM) MLP have been less volatile than those of its parent’s. They’ve still slid toward the bottom end of the trading range that’s prevailed for much of the year. The yield stands at 2.8% on a distribution increased 59% over the last year. The payout, based on EQM’s tribute to general partner EQT, is forecast to increase by at least 40% next year and 30-40% annually thereafter. Aggressive pick EQGP is the #4 Best Buy below $30.

EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM) has shed 8% over the past eight weeks but continued to generate steadily growing cash flow. It managed a 1.36x coverage ratio on the third quarter and 1.5x for the past 12 months for a payout increased 20% over that span and set to grow as fast again next year. The yield is up to 4.5%. Conservative pick EQM is a Buy below $90.

Green Plains Partners (NYSE: GPP) is down 7% since we recommended it in October, a surprisingly modest pullback given the risk of much less friendly policies toward ethanol producers from the Trump Administration. It would take an act of Congress to repeal the 10% ethanol quota, but there’s a higher likelihood of a modest reduction and other rule changes sought by independent refiners. So while the business has recently been brisk and the 9% yield remains attractive, there are similar gushers in our portfolios much less at risk of near-term volatility. We’d rather reconsider this one at a lower yield but with less headline risk, or at higher yield should Trump break his campaign promise to continue supporting ethanol. Aggressive pick GPP is a Sell.

Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) exceeded internal expectations with a 6% year-over-year bump in distributable cash flow. That provided 1.2x coverage for a 4.6% yield increased 10% this year and set to grow at least 8% in 2017. The unit price is up 13% in last five weeks on optimism about higher oil prices next year. Leverage is among the lowest for a mature MLP at 3.2x debt/EBITDA, but Magellan is nevertheless contemplating at-the-market equity sales to finance a fairly modest slate of capital projects. The partnership is also interested in acquiring Permian gathering assets to feed its crude pipelines originating in the basin, but hasn’t found any not priced out of its comfort zone to this point. Conservative pick MMP is the #10 Best Buy below $80.

Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA) reported another quarter marred by  weak crude gathering volumes and logistics margins, and pushed out its hopes for a meaningful recovery until late 2017. Third-quarter distribution coverage slipped to 0.89x on the previously reduced payout of 55 cents per unit, though that’s expected to improve to 1.08-1.10x next year. And that doesn’t count the high cost of equity the partnership has been issuing instead of cash interest on its $1.6 billion private preferred placement. Leverage remains elevated at a 4.5x debt-to-EBITDA. None of that has stopped the unit price from appreciating 21% since Plains announced an effective buyout of its general partner five months ago. The gains are all the more impressive since PAA has sold $443 million of equity under its revived at-the-market offering program into this rally. Still, intensifying competition among midstream operators for the custom of the Texas oil drillers suggest recovery will be a slow process, with distribution growth unlikely to resume before 2018 at the earliest. The yield is down to 6.8%. Growth pick PAA is a Buy on pullbacks below $31.50.

Plains GP Holdings (NYSE: PAGP) shares have outperformed the PAA equity they now track on a 1:1 basis following a reverse split associated with the buyout of PAA’s general partner. PAGP is a dividend payer with a tax shield that ensures its payouts for the next 7-8 years will be classified as tax-deferred returns of capital, and as such its shares are more suitable than PAA units for investment funds and IRAs. As a result, PAGP is trading at a 5% premium to PAA, its yield down to 6.5%  Growth pick PAGP is a Buy on dips below $32.

UGI (NYSE: UGI) reported a 2% gain in its adjusted net income for the fiscal year, as an acquisition materially expanding its European propane distribution business offset warm weather on both sides of the Atlantic. It forecast a 16% rebound on that measure in the current fiscal year assuming weather in line with historical norms. The dividend has increased 4.4% in the last year and currently yields 2.1%. The share price was recently up 32% year-to-date but down 7% since hitting a record in September. Conservative pick UGI is a Hold.

 

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